Skip to comments.Proof that “Climate disruption” is found all the way back to pre-industrial times
Posted on 04/10/2012 10:15:01 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
A new paper in Quaternary Science Reviews titled:
Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium
demonstrates that there is evidence for extreme weather during both the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age, in fact it was seen as common according to the tree ring records examined. Unlike the Yamal debacle, it seems they did a much broader sampling of trees, both living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.), and sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic. Even better, unlike the irascible Dr. Mann, they didnt have to truncate the tree samples after 1960 because they didnt agree with the premise. Their samples continuously span the AD 9622007 period and no hide the decline was needed.
Unfortunately. this paper is
published paywalled in Elsevier, which is being boycotted by thousands of academics worldwide. so I cant recommend that anyone purchase it. But with a little sleuthing, I found a copy on one of the author websites here.
A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earths climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 9622007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European AprilJune precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55°N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.
I found Table 1 and the historical accounts fascinating:
LOL......I have no fear....nursing home is in my future....why not have the State take care of me.
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