Unemployment rate decrease!!!!

5/4/2012 | Bramps

[bramps]

I'm not great at math but I need someone to splane something. If the weekly unemployment claims far exceed the weekly job creation numbers, and they have for three years and by a considerable amount each week I believe, how come the unemployment rate goes DOWN????? Obama's new math. If he's right, I think the casino's have been screwing us all along. Just a thought.

[Daffynition]

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2012

[drypowder]

re post 17, oops, it’s choir, thanks DC

[goseminoles]

” No,the numbers are based on the Census Bureau statistics/interviews,BUT,if you work one hour in the week of the 11th you are counted as employ”

While I agree, there has to be a mechanism to derive unemployment numbers by county. An interview isn’t afforded that opportunity. Your state has databases much like employflorida.com.

[clamper1797]

The U3 number is TOTAL BS and needs not to be used by EITHER side. Use the REAL unemployment numbe ... the one that still counts the people who have run out of benefits.

[goseminoles]

Im not sure how we statistically do that. Many have unreported income. If I lost my job today, I would mow lawns if I had to and not report a cent.

[nc28205]

>>>If the weekly unemployment claims far exceed the weekly job creation numbers, and they have for three years and by a considerable amount each week I believe, how come the unemployment rate goes DOWN?????

Let me help. First of all there is no such thing as a weekly job creations number. Each Thursday morning the Labor Department reports the number of new claims for unemployment. No comparison is made to job creation.

Generally, a number somewhere between 375K and 400K represents a neutral level. When claims are consistently above 400K in a monmth, you generally see the numbers from the monthly survey of bsinesses report a net deline in payrolls and the numbers from the household survey reportan increase in umenployment. In general, you get the opposite effects on net payrolls and unemployemnt when new claims are under 375K.

The weekly new claims have ticked higher in recent weeks, and this has been reflected in the lower payroll numbers for March and April than were reported in January and February.

Similarly, as many have noted here. Unemployment went down not because hiring increased that much, but because the number of those seeking employment declined. So, no funky math involved, just a need to better explain what goes into the calculation.

[Signalman]

Cooking the books.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Because you don't count people among the "unemployed" who have been unemployed for so long that they have run out of unemployment benefits and have stopped looking for a job.

That way you can say unemployment has gone down, when all that has happened is that people have disappeared into despair.

While the Ubamas go on three vacations a month.

[Positive]

You are right...AND throw a bunch of hard to define numbers into a pot and this leads to hard to understand formulaic results...I.E. fuzzier math.

Here are some some clear terms and hypothetical formulae which illustrate the conundrum in easy to understand numbers.

If there were 100 million in the “Work Force” and 91.8 Million were “Employed”, 8.2 Million would be left “Unemployed” (Workforce minus Employed leaves Unemployed). This would equal an “Unemployment Rate” of (8.2/100) or 8.2%.

So, it would seem that if 200 thousand “Lost their Jobs” that would mean 91.6 Million were “Employed” and this would leave 8.4 million “Unemployed”. This would equal an “Unemployment Rate” of (8.4/100) or 8.4%.

But…

If you somehow determined that 330 thousand unemployed had “left the work force" (quit applying for jobs) that would mean the “Work Force” is now 99.670 million… since there are now 91.6 Million “Employed,” this means there are “Only” 8.07 Million Unemployed (99.67 – 91.6 = 8.07) and the “Unemployment Rate” is “Only” 8.1%.

Presto Chango, this is one way the “Unemployment Rate” can Decline while the number of Americans who have no jobs increases.

Sadly... Figures Lie and liars figure.

Notice how the 0bama libs are fixated on “Rates” lately… Romney pays $3 million in taxes which is far more than most of us pay… but it’s unfair because his “tax” rate is lower than that of some of us.

While the number of Americans without jobs is rising… the “Unemployment Rate” falls… Absurd!

Just watch, if things remain dicey for 0Bama, in October the “Work Force” number could somehow decline until it matches the “Employed” so if the “Employed” is equal to the “Workforce” the “Unemployment RATE) will be Zero… as in ZeroBama!!!

Unfortunately that does not mean that every able bodied worker in the U. S. A. will have a job… millions MORE will just be MISSING FROM THE FORMULA!!!.

[Positive]

I meant to alert you to my rely to your post.

[Ouderkirk]

There’s no fuzzy math or anything else. It is a complete fabrication.

The U-3 number will be under 7.6% by election day. While the U-6 number will remain constant at about 15% or increast to about 18%.

The White Hut wants U-3 to go down, so they say it went down then cook the books to make appear that way.

If they could make it 4%, they would, it’s just than nobody would believe them, not that anybody believes them now.

[RedMDer]

Why Donate? We are Beholden to no one!

Why Donate? We are Beholden to no one!

[autumnraine]

You aren’t getting me... the ‘unemployment number’ is derived by interviews.

[autumnraine]

http://www.census.gov/cps/

This is how the ‘unemployment’ figure is derived.

[autumnraine]

You need to google ‘sampling’ for unemployment figures.

[Eye of Unk]

Nobody is looking for work.

They are out scrounging and stealing radiators from school buses, copper plumbing, welding cables from bushiness.

I know as someone walked into our gated property recently after hours and ripped us off of over 150’ of heavy duty welding cables, which will cost over $1200 to replace.

My hours are cut back, my paycheck is half of what it used to be.

Tomorrow I am heading out to do some metal detecting, hopefully I’ll find some gold trace.