Posted on 08/13/2012 8:13:21 PM PDT by goodn'mad
Fox News. Between Joe Trippi and Carl Rove. Rove states that Obama holds 271 electoral votes but Romney holds only 182 electoral votes. "If the election were held today, Obama would win."
Rove is not using much common sense in his signing states. I think 270towin.com is probably close:
except, I would put NC in the leaning Romney category. That makes it 206 Romney to 201 Obama with 136 undecided. I also might move N.M. to undecided making it 206 Romney to 196 Obama with 141 battleground states.
Yup. The Attorney General and his boys can ensure electors understand their responsibilities.
I was thinking of that recent pic of the Obama holding a bat while taking to a world leader. A couple fast & furious guns will do as well.
Shutup Karl.
Despite your well layer out reality, just look at free republic for an example of why Romney may not win. Then look and talk to your neighbor who doesnt pay much attention but thinks Obama tries hard. Couple em both, and you have an Obama victory party.
Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina are already red Florida just went with Ohio right behind it. That list also has New Mexico, Connecticut, and New Jersey as ‘safe’ Obama and I think all three are in play.
You forget to mention Romney, possibly the least electable candidate in the primary, and one who’s been proving it consistently for the last several weeks. He’s also someone who couldn’t get elected in Massachusetts as a Senator or in a 2nd term as governor. Santorum or Gingrich would have been polling a lot better than Romney this summer, that’s for sure, since they know how to form a conservative message and communicate it.
I also believe Obama is currently ahead and still likely to win, but it’s closer as of the Ryan pick thanks to the excitement from the base and the fact that Ryan might be able to create a better pitch for Romney.
Conditions simply haven’t changed that much since Obama won the first time. People believe the Republicans caused the economic meltdown because it happened while Bush was in office. If the case can be made that Democrats blocked reforms of Fannie/Freddie that Republicans wanted which would have stopped the crisis, that case certainly hasn’t been made successfully to the average voter yet.
Romney’s message has been that the economy is getting better, but not fast enough. That’s immediately conceding that the economy is getting better under Obama. How is that a winning message?
The only way to win this election is to fight the battle of socialism vs. capitalism. The public needs to learn that socialism will turn us into a third world country in the long run and lower the standard of living and quality of life for everybody. Obama is selling everybody a bunch of free goodies in the short-term. Unless the long-term disaster that results from that is explained to people, they’re going to go with Obama. Why turn down the short-term pleasure if nobody’s even telling you about the long-term pain?
On the ground in Pennsylvania, I don’t see much difference in how people are going to vote from the last time. The commmitted leftists are still as committed to Obama as ever, if not moreso. Since the wars are off the front pages, they’ve forgotten about them and are just swooning over Obama’s domestic agenda. The conservatives are still against him, but they’re discouraged at the prospects of beating him. The independents who were scared of Obama aren’t sold on him, but they’re less scared than they were before, either because they’re used to the “new normal” in the economy or are at least satisfied that things aren’t getting worse. And the independents who blamed the Republicans for the economic downturn still blame the Republicans.
Obama will probably win the election unless conservative ideology is explained completely and thoroughly to the American public. Since a conservative like Gingrich or Santorum didn’t win the primary, Ryan is just about our only chance to get that message out. It’s a slim chance.
their finances are secure...
I find those whose finances are secure especially be the govt tend to want no changes for them, but the rest of we little peasants should just buck up and pay more....
remember people...taxes on the "rich" don't really happen....the taxes fall on the two wage earner households and small businesses....the middle and upper classes.....the rich can connive, we can not so much...
The analysts on the radio today were saying this spike is due to refinery problems and they expect prices to drop in the last 100 days of the year. So starting around October. Don't count on gas prices sinking Obama.
LOL well I dont know about butt buddy(Just coined the phrase) but I bet the Karl Rove’s of the GOP Establishment really wished that Jeb Bush had been chosen for VP..I Really dont get it, they tanked the 2008 campaign so that Romney would be the nominee in 2012, they got what they wanted, now they are trying to tank 2012 for 2016..dont these fools know that if Obama wins there wont be a 2016 election, it will be like Venezuela we will be stuck with Obama for life
BUMP
“Agreed. We don’t need to shoot Rove. His analysis at this moment is likely very accurate.”
I tend to agree.
Obama is starting from an “electoral vote base” that is greater than is Romney’s — simply because of the weight of numbers of having New York, California, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois in the ‘rat’s pocket.
Couple this with the reality that several states which for years were “reliably red” or at least “contestable” seem to be slipping out of reach for the Republicans.
Examples:
New Mexico (now the second state in which Euros are a minority)
Colorado (getting pushed to the left by the “California transplants”)
New Hampshire (once quite conservative, now wobbling due to the influx of liberals from Massachusetts)
Virginia (having the same problems with incoming liberals as is Colorado, as folks move from Maryland to VA next door)
There are indeed “strong red” states, but they have smaller populations and fewer electoral votes than the heavy hitters (an exception is Texas, for the moment).
That leaves a dozen or so battleground states where the election will be decided. Romney’s challenge is that he needs almost all of them in order to reach 270 electoral votes. All Obama needs to do is prevent Romney from winning in two or three of these, and Obama will be over the top.
Perhaps the biggest cases-in-point are Ohio and Florida. Obama won Florida in 2008 by the smallest of margins, but it’s a question mark as to how the senior folks down there are going to react once the ‘rats start attacking Romney via Ryan’s plans for Social Security and Medicare. The goldens may be gullible.
Ohio is a tough road for Romney, he’s trailing there and it’s going to be a hard climb to win that one. But without Ohio, Romney won’t be president.
I had originally believed that Romney might win Ohio but lose Wisconsin, but it seems this could go the opposite way with Ryan on the ticket. But I don’t see “the switch” as giving Romney enough electoral votes to get over the top — Ohio has 20, but Wisconsin only has 10.
There are others here who will denigrate Rove for having made such a comment as he did above, but I see no reason to discount him — if there’s anyone out there who would be supporting Romney, it’s Rove. The fact that he sees problems right now, should be a warning to us all.
Yes, it’s early in the campaign yet. But there are warnings on the horizon.
They should be taken very seriously.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't. In fact, I look around and see Republicans holding offices that I never would have imagined as recently as four years ago. Even Ted Kennedy's sacred seat in the U.S. Senate is held by a Republican right now.
My own state of New Jersey is a perfect case in point. I'm not a huge fan of the guy, but Chris Christie has done something here that I never would have thought possible. Within 3-4 months of taking office in January of 2010, he has effectively reduced public school teachers to a level of public respect in New Jersey that is somewhere between arsonists and child molesters. I never, ever would have dreamed that such a thing could happen -- especially in one of the most reliably liberal states in the U.S.
I do like your idea of acting like we're behind though, fighting tooth and nail against this evil is a good thing.
If Sarah could really say what she really wanted to, I’d guess she would say that while she fought like a wildcat, her partner and the party fought like nursery school nuns...
The only way Repubs win is if Repubs get out the vote and Dems stay home.
3 months to go....scarey...
The Republicans need to whittle that message down to...the whole point of Obamacare is to buy free health care to young people by taking the money away from retired people. In turn, those young people will not have to work and pay no taxes into Medicare. This is why the point of socialized medicine in all countries that have it is to restrict care to old people so that they die early, because it's more expensive to care for them. All the equations the socialists use say that health care dollars are better spent on the young because they will live longer and in turn give you more value for your dollar. Death panels are what Obamacare is ALL about, which is why he wasted no time in taking money away from Medicare.
This year, California’s electoral votes will go to the winner of the majority vote in the U.S.
True fact.
If Romney wins with California’s 55 votes, you will hear the screeching to the Mississippi Valley.
Perfectly logical for people who never had to meet a payroll and who's employer could just print more money to cover the pay checks when the revenues didn't add up.
They lived their entire lives, but never in the real world.
Sadly, we have a population where higher and higher percentages of people have never been in the real world.
The Golden Goose is in critical condition.
The first part of your statement is utter bullsh!t. Refinery problems would cause a spike in gasoline prices, but what we've seen in recent weeks is a steep rise in the price of crude oil -- which is not affected this way by refinery capacity. If anything, a refinery shutdown would cause a decline in crude oil prices because there would be a glut of oil on the market and less capacity to refine it.
For several years now, the crude oil market has been "upside down" from a historical perspective. That is, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading at a discount of about 10% to 15% compared to Brent crude oil. This is highly unusual because WTI is a higher grade than Brent and would typically be more expensive. But it's cheaper now because there's actually a glut of WTI oil on the market -- driven by an imbalance between North America's growing supply and reduced demand.
The Ryan pick is interesting in light of Rove’s analysis.
Starting with Rove’s map, assume that FL, SC, NC, VA go to Romney, not too hard to believe, Romney is now at 248 Assume that VA, NH, CO, and IA go to Obama. Obama is at 290. Wisconsin and Ohio, two states that most of the (probably bogus) polls, as well as history, show to be in Obama’s column now. Ryan is supposed to help with both. That 28 would swing the election. It was the two states Romney was after.
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