Posted on 08/27/2012 7:15:59 PM PDT by Signalman
With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton.
On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls.
(The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino).
Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals.
Obama’s personal favorability is 47-50 while Romney’s is 48-48. The president’s job approval is at 46%.
Asked who would do the best job of:
Improving the economy = O-39 / R-49
Creating jobs = O-38 / R-50
Strengthening Medicare = O-44 / R-42
While the Medicare issue is important, it is not the major factor. Asked which is more important, “protecting and strengthening Medicare or improving the economy and creating jobs?” The economy wins by 67-18.
Comparing Medicare plans without explaining them, voters break even with 41% favoring Obama’s and 42% backing Romney’s. Asked which scares them the most, Obama’s scared 46% and Romney’s scared 44%.
But Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan has scored a bull’s eye by his comparison of the two Medicare plans and the following answers indicate:
Whose plan do you agree with more? Obama who would save $716 in Medicare spending and use the money to cover the uninsured or Romney who would make the same savings but use the funds to extend the life of the Medicare trust fund?
Obama’s 38% / Romney’s 53%
And the President continues to draw big negatives over his plans to intervene in medical decision making:
President Obama’s health care law sets up a Board to issue guidelines and instructions to doctors and hospitals on what procedures, medications, or treatment to use for each illness. Do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?
Agree: 33% / Disagree: 61%
After argumentation, disagreement with Obama’s Medicare cuts becomes even sharper:
Supporters of this provision say that it will allow us to save funds in Medicare without cutting care. They say that the Board can stop unnecessary tests or overly costly treatments that do not help the patients. But opponents say that it will lead to rationing of Medicare treatment. They say that the Board would ban the most effective medicines to treat cancer, for example, because they are too expensive and might stop old people from getting hip replacements or heart bypasses. In view of these arguments, do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?
Agree: 30% / Disagree: 57%
Voters agree by 56-20 that “Romney and Ryan would not change Medicare for current beneficiaries or for people who are now over 55.” And, by 25-60, they reject the statement that “Romney and Ryan would end Medicare and leave the elderly without a good alternative.”
By 48-33, voters agree that “President Obama has not proposed any real long term fix for Medicare” although by 63-18 they agree that “In a few years, Medicare will exhaust its trust fund and will go bankrupt unless we enact changes and reforms.”
But Romney still has some selling to do. Only 38% agreed and 31% disagreed that “Romney will always allow elderly to stay in traditional Medicare. He will just offer a voucher system that will have more attractive alternatives.”
In evaluating the health care and Medicare issue, voters feel that high medical malpractice costs play a key role in driving up costs. By 63-20, they agree that “the abuse of medical malpractice law suits is a big reason medical costs are so high.” By 57-37, they support Romney’s proposals to “curb medical malpractice litigation” agreeing that it “will save billions and extend the life of Medicare.”
Tomorrow, I’ll discuss the survey’s findings on the economy, Obama’s possible second term plans, Bain Capital, Romney’s taxes, the negative campaigning on both sides.
Gratuitous insults. That’s really a great way of elevating the conversation.
Say what you will, he’s a good pollster.
No he isn’t.
Hope what Morris is saying is true.
He is the only one out there saying right now though, which makes me skeptical.
It seems like his new business model is to tell conservatives what they want to hear. If he does wind up being correct, however, then he will have salvaged much of his damaged reputation.
If Morris is right I will buy him a steak dinner. God I hope he’s right I just don’t want to see Obama lose I want to see him lose BADLY. I want this election to be so depressing for the Commie lovers that they crawl back underneath the rocks where they came from for another 100 years
Yeah, that’s why President Bill Clinton, Fernando de la Rua for President of Argentina (1999), Jorge Batlle for President of Uruguay (1999), Vicente Fox for President of Mexico (2000), and Raphael Trotman for President of Guyana (2006), the United Kingdom Independence Party, the successful Yushchenko Presidential campaign in the Ukraine, the League of American Voters (anti-ObamaCare group) and several Republican campaigns have paid him tons of money.
Two terms of Bill Clinton and ‘winning’ the impeachment battle public opinion battles tells us otherwise.
I think that is Morris’ speciality, polling..
What I like about Morris’s poll is the sample breakout, with the Dims only enjoying a +2 advantage, and a fairly accurate representation of the black vote. I think Morris did this to confirm his own suspicions, and show the inherent bias/inaccuracy of the MSM polls. Given Obama a +9 in the Democratic sample, and he’s tied with or slightly ahead of Romney. Use a model that’s closer to 2010 than 2008, and Romney has a significant lead.
I wonder if “Obi Wan” will be checking in at NRO this cycle? Of all the “insider” sources, he seems to be the most credible, with access to campaign polls/data that others don’t seem to have. It will be interesting to see how he reads the tea leaves.
I truly hope you have people in your life that refuses to forget and continually remind you of errors you have made in your life. People that won't forgive and hold you up to ridicule - may that be so.
Ask Trent Lott and Bill Clinton if Dick Morris can Poll?
Say what you want about Morris’s predictions, but the man knows polls inside and out and always had Clinton riding public opinion when Clinton listened to him. I think he’s right-—maybe just a point off, but pretty much on target.
He is not pollng pro-life, pro traditional family, evangelical Christian, conservatives. I would like to see if they do that breakdown. I think they are assuming (romney said all the base will vote for him) he will get all the base. They should not expect or take for granted their votes.
The real issue, though, is that the presidential election isn’t a national referendum. It is 50 state referendums. Romney has to win enough states to amass 270 electoral votes and all these national samples don’t really help explain where the electoral map is. I think it is entirely possible for Romney to win the national vote and still lose the electoral vote.
He was an accurate pollster for Clinton and did a good job of predicting to out come of the 2010 midterms-— better than a lot of other so called pollsters out there
oh and Frank Luntz’s focus groups have shown the same thing
Dick Morris was saying McCain would still win in 2008, after McCain lost Ohio on Election Night.
I swear the guy eats nothing but baby unicorn meat, pees nothing but rainbow dewdrops, and exhales little fogs of rose-colored glitter
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