Skip to comments.UH-OH: Orders Of Heavy Duty Trucks Have Collapsed
Posted on 09/05/2012 10:13:03 AM PDT by fella
UH-OH: Orders Of Heavy Duty Trucks Have Collapsed
Matthew Boesler|Aug. 6, 2012, 5:18 PM|9,386|15
Almost everything everyone owns in America has spent at least some time in a truck. As such, the health of the trucking industry is a pretty reliable indicator of the health of the economy.
In July, NAFTA Class 8 truck (basically heavy duty trucks) orders collapsed 12,900 new orders were booked for trucks, short of the consensus of analysts, who were expecting 16,000-17,000.
And it's not just seasonality that played a role. Nigel Coe, an equity analyst covering multi-industry stocks for Morgan Stanley, alerted clients in a recent note that "the large 23% drop to 12,900 was far greater than the 11% median decline observed for the June/July period since 1996, and that, to make matters worse, the disappointing July print "came on the back of a larger than normal seasonal step-down in June, when Class 8 orders fell 7% M/M to 16,690 worse than the typical 3% M/M decline."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-trucking-lead-indicator-us-economy-recession-2012-8?op=1#ixzz25cEublTm
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Lots of good information on our econemy with lots of truthful graphs.
Would it have anything to do with the new engine regulations?
The world economy is falling quick. It will not be long now.
Pair this news with FedEx saying their Q3 sales/shipments forecast being reduced.....
the tea leaves are starting to show a pattern.
So, with a sharp decline in agricultural production trucks sit there unused, suffer no wear, and the owners don't order new ones.
Next, tires, I see a major drop off in tire sales as well as ploughs, harvesters (for a nonexistent wheat crop), as well as increased farm bankruptcies!
Buddy of mine has a BIG Dodge diesel truck, 4 doors, roomy and can pull the largest 5th wheel they make. It’s loaded, turbo, specialty engine computer for efficiency, heavy duty transmission.
He carpools with me, because at $4.31 a gallon for diesel, he’s paying upwards of $250 a month in fuel. His goal is to sell this rig, and get a little Tacoma or Tundra - not only will gasoline be saving him big, but the fact that his current rig gets far worse mileage than most Tacoma or Tundra trucks - he’ll slash his fuel bill by close to 75%.
With fuel costs high, and promising to go higher (with no end in sight) - why would anyone who doesn’t absolutely NEED a big truck, consider a big truck?
I see rising unemployment, declining producer prices, and further declines in Fed Ex for at least a quarter. Then, since these things tend to happen in a quantum fashion, they'll have a period of slow growth followed by another quantum drop.
O has driven the US Economy into another recession.
Wrong type of truck my FRiend. Class 8 trucks are Kenworths and Peterbuilts. The new engine regs for consumer vehicles didn’t play into this.
Who needs trucks when we have unicorns...
Haven't used the mower in two months.
Currently, in the Midwest, the main agricultural vehicles getting any use are water trucks.
The only thing unicorns haul is ass and that’s at the race track.
Just like that.
Thank you for the tutorial. We were off in the weeds again.
This is a larger picture here than a size contest of our neighbors “dually” in the drive way.
The similarities between this depression and the the great depression are eerie. There was also a great drought 4 years into the last one. The difference this time is there were already lots of government relief programs going on during normal times. Imagine the same 2008 crisis with not food stamps, welfare, and other programs. If the government measured unemployment the same way they did in the 30’s then we would be seeing similar numbers to the great depression. And the government is trying the same policies of spending to remedy the situation.
Perhaps knarf, but bookings for freight have been down for several months now. Mrs. RQSR is a CSR for a National Truckload Carrier. A BIG carrier I might add, and this time of year is usually quite busy for the overall freight industry.
We’ve been aware the company isn’t purchasing new equipment for awhile now. Most of the time it’s an ongoing process for such a large company, but they aren’t purchasing ANY new equipment until the economy warrants such.
The other big difference is the family structure.
No major Class 8 engine regs changes for 2012/2013. I believe 2014 is next set.
China has them on roughly the same cycle. It's a solar phenomenon.
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