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UH-OH: Orders Of Heavy Duty Trucks Have Collapsed
businessinsider. ^ | Aug. 6, 2012 | Matthew Boesler

Posted on 09/05/2012 10:13:03 AM PDT by fella

UH-OH: Orders Of Heavy Duty Trucks Have Collapsed

Matthew Boesler|Aug. 6, 2012, 5:18 PM|9,386|15

Almost everything everyone owns in America has spent at least some time in a truck. As such, the health of the trucking industry is a pretty reliable indicator of the health of the economy.

In July, NAFTA Class 8 truck (basically heavy duty trucks) orders collapsed – 12,900 new orders were booked for trucks, short of the consensus of analysts, who were expecting 16,000-17,000.

And it's not just seasonality that played a role. Nigel Coe, an equity analyst covering multi-industry stocks for Morgan Stanley, alerted clients in a recent note that "the large 23% drop to 12,900 was far greater than the 11% median decline observed for the June/July period since 1996, and that, to make matters worse, the disappointing July print "came on the back of a larger than normal seasonal step-down in June, when Class 8 orders fell 7% M/M to 16,690 – worse than the typical 3% M/M decline."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-trucking-lead-indicator-us-economy-recession-2012-8?op=1#ixzz25cEublTm

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012issues; bhoeconomy; economy
"the health of the trucking industry is a pretty reliable indicator of the health of the economy."

Lots of good information on our econemy with lots of truthful graphs.

1 posted on 09/05/2012 10:13:04 AM PDT by fella
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To: fella

Would it have anything to do with the new engine regulations?


2 posted on 09/05/2012 10:15:21 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: fella

The world economy is falling quick. It will not be long now.


3 posted on 09/05/2012 10:18:15 AM PDT by bmwcyle (Corollary - Electing the same person over and over and expecting a different outcome is insanity)
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To: fella

Pair this news with FedEx saying their Q3 sales/shipments forecast being reduced.....

the tea leaves are starting to show a pattern.


4 posted on 09/05/2012 10:20:03 AM PDT by llevrok (2012 : This is a civil war, not an election)
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To: knarf
We just had and are still in the midst of one of those GREAT DROUGHTS that throw agriculture and related businesses into turmoil. They usually come around at least once in any 85 year period.

So, with a sharp decline in agricultural production trucks sit there unused, suffer no wear, and the owners don't order new ones.

Next, tires, I see a major drop off in tire sales as well as ploughs, harvesters (for a nonexistent wheat crop), as well as increased farm bankruptcies!

5 posted on 09/05/2012 10:21:52 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: fella

Buddy of mine has a BIG Dodge diesel truck, 4 doors, roomy and can pull the largest 5th wheel they make. It’s loaded, turbo, specialty engine computer for efficiency, heavy duty transmission.

He carpools with me, because at $4.31 a gallon for diesel, he’s paying upwards of $250 a month in fuel. His goal is to sell this rig, and get a little Tacoma or Tundra - not only will gasoline be saving him big, but the fact that his current rig gets far worse mileage than most Tacoma or Tundra trucks - he’ll slash his fuel bill by close to 75%.

With fuel costs high, and promising to go higher (with no end in sight) - why would anyone who doesn’t absolutely NEED a big truck, consider a big truck?


6 posted on 09/05/2012 10:24:56 AM PDT by Hodar (A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.- Burroughs)
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To: llevrok
FedEx business is down due to improved productivity in all aspects of every economy on Earth. That's due to further computerization and improved work methods (including computer programs).

I see rising unemployment, declining producer prices, and further declines in Fed Ex for at least a quarter. Then, since these things tend to happen in a quantum fashion, they'll have a period of slow growth followed by another quantum drop.

7 posted on 09/05/2012 10:25:28 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: fella
And yesterday the manufacturing data indicated a third straight month of contraction.

O has driven the US Economy into another recession.

8 posted on 09/05/2012 10:28:50 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: knarf; Hodar

Wrong type of truck my FRiend. Class 8 trucks are Kenworths and Peterbuilts. The new engine regs for consumer vehicles didn’t play into this.


9 posted on 09/05/2012 10:31:22 AM PDT by Melas (u)
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To: fella

Who needs trucks when we have unicorns...


10 posted on 09/05/2012 10:37:17 AM PDT by Popman (In a place you only dream of Where your soul is always free)
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To: muawiyah
So, with a sharp decline in agricultural production trucks sit there unused, suffer no wear, and the owners don't order new ones.

Haven't used the mower in two months.

Currently, in the Midwest, the main agricultural vehicles getting any use are water trucks.

11 posted on 09/05/2012 10:39:16 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 ( If you think I'm crazy, just wait until you talk to my invisible friend.)
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To: Popman

The only thing unicorns haul is ass and that’s at the race track.


12 posted on 09/05/2012 10:40:58 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: Melas; knarf; Hodar
Wrong type of truck my FRiend. Class 8 trucks are Kenworths and Peterbuilts. The new engine regs for consumer vehicles didn’t play into this.

Like this.


13 posted on 09/05/2012 10:42:07 AM PDT by Focault's Pendulum
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To: Focault's Pendulum

Just like that.


14 posted on 09/05/2012 10:44:01 AM PDT by Melas (u)
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To: Melas

Thank you for the tutorial. We were off in the weeds again.

This is a larger picture here than a size contest of our neighbors “dually” in the drive way.


15 posted on 09/05/2012 10:44:49 AM PDT by RitaOK
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To: muawiyah

The similarities between this depression and the the great depression are eerie. There was also a great drought 4 years into the last one. The difference this time is there were already lots of government relief programs going on during normal times. Imagine the same 2008 crisis with not food stamps, welfare, and other programs. If the government measured unemployment the same way they did in the 30’s then we would be seeing similar numbers to the great depression. And the government is trying the same policies of spending to remedy the situation.


16 posted on 09/05/2012 10:47:22 AM PDT by albionin
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To: knarf

Perhaps knarf, but bookings for freight have been down for several months now. Mrs. RQSR is a CSR for a National Truckload Carrier. A BIG carrier I might add, and this time of year is usually quite busy for the overall freight industry.

We’ve been aware the company isn’t purchasing new equipment for awhile now. Most of the time it’s an ongoing process for such a large company, but they aren’t purchasing ANY new equipment until the economy warrants such.


17 posted on 09/05/2012 10:50:18 AM PDT by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: albionin

The other big difference is the family structure.


18 posted on 09/05/2012 10:59:00 AM PDT by CJ Wolf
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To: knarf

No major Class 8 engine regs changes for 2012/2013. I believe 2014 is next set.


19 posted on 09/05/2012 11:03:50 AM PDT by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
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To: albionin
1932 to 2012 is 80 years ~ well within and very near the 85 year parameter for a Great Drought.

China has them on roughly the same cycle. It's a solar phenomenon.

20 posted on 09/05/2012 11:06:28 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: fella

Without getting myself in trouble, let’s just say August was a little better for orders (this article is a month old).


21 posted on 09/05/2012 11:09:24 AM PDT by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
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To: Chipper

I work in a truck factory and orders didn’t get better. We’re geared to build 150 a day but orders are at about 72 a day and our backlog is almost gone from when we had good orders a year ago.


22 posted on 09/05/2012 11:19:18 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah, so shall it be again.")
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To: Hodar

As they say I’m Texas, the bigger the belt buckle, the smaller the d!$&.

Same may be true of trucks.


23 posted on 09/05/2012 11:25:04 AM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: Chipper

The big freight fleets are mere shadows of themselves on the roads now. Trucking relies much more on owner/operators like myself these days. Most of my contacts are holding on to their old rigs longer now due to the uncertainty in the business.

I bought a new International last year, and will hold on to it for at least 5 years.


24 posted on 09/05/2012 11:25:28 AM PDT by datura (Democrat = Socialist, Progressive Democrat = Communist)
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To: Melas

unless things have changed you will find a class 7 (straight trucks/rv’s/buses) engine in that dodge.

When dodge first started using the 5.9 diesel the truck could get mid to upper 20’s to the gallon.

Now, all smoged up I hear it’s in the teens.


25 posted on 09/05/2012 11:29:13 AM PDT by cableguymn
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To: fella

I just read the same thing about truck sales falling fast in Germany.


26 posted on 09/05/2012 11:50:36 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: SeaHawkFan
As they say I’m Texas, the bigger the belt buckle, the smaller the d!$&.
Same may be true of trucks.

I'm happy with my Girlie-man truck. I've nothing to prove - besides, I'm married. Although, in full disclosure, I have to say that she hated my '95 Toyota pickup and can tolerate my Tacoma.

If I had it to do over again, I'd step up to the Tundra because the quad-cab is more comfortable, and they only get about 1 mpg less than my Taco; plus they can pull most campers that are too big for my little V6 Taco.

27 posted on 09/05/2012 11:56:31 AM PDT by Hodar (A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.- Burroughs)
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To: Hodar

I have a Ford Ranger with 170,000 miles. Thinking of getting a small SUV or Toyota Tacoma in a couple of years. Also thinking of the VW Jetta Sportwagon TDI that gets 49 highway mileage.


28 posted on 09/05/2012 12:13:11 PM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: SeaHawkFan

Tacos are nice - very dependable and there are tons of folks who are really into them. I get ~18/20 in city and highway with my V6. It’s a quad-cab, so I can haul around 4 adults (2 in reasonable comfort).

If I have to nit-pick; it’s a little under-powered for pulling a camper any significant distance; even with the tow kit.

But, getting 275 miles on a tank, and filling said tank for $45-50 is nice.


29 posted on 09/05/2012 12:20:05 PM PDT by Hodar (A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.- Burroughs)
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To: fella
I work in a truck factory and orders didn’t get better. We’re geared to build 150 a day but orders are at about 72 a day and our backlog is almost gone from when we had good orders a year ago.

That narrows you down to N.C., Ohio or Texas:-) The order intake for August did get better than July (16,200 ), for the numbers that are referenced in the article. I know the build volumes for August and September are crap though, with reductions and shut down days. Not saying it is going to get much better. I think the increase is only equivalent to 40-50/day from July. Not enough to move the needle in the current market.

30 posted on 09/05/2012 12:31:14 PM PDT by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
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To: datura

2007-2009 was really hard for the truck markets in general. Thought we were going to get a pickup coming out of last year. Things have tanked in the last quarter though. Lots of smaller fleets didn’t make it.


31 posted on 09/05/2012 12:37:57 PM PDT by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
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To: albionin

If the government measured unemployment the same way they did in the 30’s then we would be seeing similar numbers to the great depression.-—————

We already are seeing numbers ‘similar’ to the Great Depression, even with Obama and the corrupt media’s false accounting.

23% ...(who knows what the number is of those that aren’t even counted?)


32 posted on 09/05/2012 12:38:59 PM PDT by Freddd (No PA Engineers)
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To: albionin

If the government measured unemployment the same way they did in the 30’s then we would be seeing similar numbers to the great depression.-—————

We already are seeing numbers ‘similar’ to the Great Depression, even with Obama and the corrupt media’s false accounting.

23% ...(who knows what the number is of those that aren’t even counted?)


33 posted on 09/05/2012 12:39:10 PM PDT by Freddd (No PA Engineers)
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To: Chipper

The class 8 sales as precurser to the rest of the economy has held true for over 25 years that I have experianced and does not bode well for the next year or so. I’m not worried because of my seniority, if they Jonesville the plant I’ll be one of the ones sweeping the floors when they pull the tooling out.


34 posted on 09/05/2012 12:51:53 PM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah, so shall it be again.")
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To: fella
Momma hated diesels so bad...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZNVF1F23oQ

35 posted on 09/05/2012 12:57:07 PM PDT by Senator_Blutarski
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To: fella

Interesting although trucks can and do last a long time. I still see a lot of Peterbuilts, KW’s, etc that were made from the mid 1950’s through the 1970’s still in service. The Peterbuilt they used in “Duel” (1972 movie) is still a common sight and it is from the 1955/60+ era. One of my neighbors, he still uses the same 195’s era Chevy dump truck that he had before I was born and I’m 46. I still see the message behind the article though that means the economy ain’t too good and people are holding onto their old trucks (and cars too). I know one man who is getting his frame welded up and fixed for a 1991 Buick instead of buying a new car, it is cheaper for him to do that. There is another man who’s 1995 Pontiac’s engine blew up and he had a 1979 Plymouth Volaire (or Dodge Aspen) he hasn’t fired up in over 15 years. He just needed a new alternator and he got it going. He can’t afford to fix the Pontiac or get a new car so the 1979 Volaire will have to do.


36 posted on 09/08/2012 9:22:15 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (June 28th, 2012, the Day America Jumped The Shark.)
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