Skip to comments.Polls lie through Dem over-sampling
Posted on 09/21/2012 8:42:37 AM PDT by pabianice
Report on Fox. An analysis of national presidential pools finds that Dems are over-sampled by 3 to 11 percent, with the average oversampling being 6 percent, esp. in swing state polls. Also, the Dem story that Romney's campaign is in financial trouble is another lie. At the end of August, Romney had $168M for ads while Obama had just $125M.
pools = polls
“This website corrects for the oversampling of Democrats in major polls”
Humm..no Rass. at that site
From that website:
The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.
I’d like to see why they chose R 37.6, D 33.3 and I 29.1- where is the data that suggests this is the most accurate breakdown?
I’m fairly sure that is Rasmussen’s finding of current partisan affiliation.
I am curious why they oversample Dems.
I assume there was, at least at first, a logical reason to do this in order to make polls more reflective of the results of election day, in that more people self-identified as Democrats than Republicans.
Is there an explanation other than bias?
No there is not. Their polls do not even match current party strengths in the states polled. They seem to be uninformed assuming Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008.
Anyone see any evidence to support that assumption?
CNN also reported this morning that Obummer had more money on hand than Romney, which is another lie.
And the Fox News poll is one of the worst. I was polled yesterday for a local race, though state and national questions were thrown in. After the questions, I asked the pollster how many people talk to him vs. how many hang up. He said that it was 50/50.
And that doesn't count people like me who pay $100/year for caller ID just so I know not to answer his call in the first place.
The reason that dems are oversampled is because they historically bring more voters to the polls on election day. All of those inner city blacks and hispanics being bused in to the polling stations, etc. Whether or not it holds true this election remains to be seen, but the oversampling is based on historical trends.
It’s intended to demoralize R and I voters and give the impression of inevitability for the result they want. They try this s*** in every election. Even Rasmussen ignores its own current surveys of party identification. The results in the 2010 midterms are evidence that it largely does not work.
I hadn’t really watched FOX since they went to the dark side but happened to flip over to it early this morning to be pleasantly suprised at them slapping down hussein.