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The Romney Jobs Bump
My pea brain | 10/5/2012 | Solson

Posted on 10/05/2012 5:14:57 PM PDT by Solson

Indulge me for a quick moment....

Looking at the jobs report today, we see the household survey showing a massive 583,000 jump in the number of part-time workers, the largest since 1983. As part of the explanation, workers commented they took part-time because of "slack business conditions or the only jobs they could find."

So why, in September 2012 would this increase happen?

I am not one to believe the numbers were faked. Nor do I necessarily believe, though I do not discount, the survey process being flawed to the point of causing this increase. I actually think it is because of a few reasons.

1. September is the time when kiddos go back to school and the parent who has stayed home during the summer, now has the ability to pick up a job to make up for the increased burden on families. I can see a rise here.

2. With people paying more attention to politics, and seeing the strong potential for a Romney win, or at the least a Republican takeover of the Senate, people, who may have been out of work for the last months or years, have come to the realization that their gravy train, namely unemployment benefits, will no longer be extended or supported. So, it's those workers trying to get ahead of the coming tide.

A couple of other very interesting data points consist of the food-stamp increase reported by the Department of Agriculture just in the last hours. This was after the markets closed heading into a typical no-news Saturday. Those statistics saw a massive 99,000+ increase in the number of households receiving food-stamps. This can be for a number of reasons but among them would be retirees finally running out of money and being forced onto the government dole (AND also taking part time jobs) as well as households having finally reached the breaking point.

Couple all this data together, at least until we see the revisions which will quietly be released in a couple of weeks, I believe this points to, for lack of a better term, a "Romney jobs bump."

The realization of being at a breaking point, out of money and knowing the government is no longer going to allow one or be able to allow one to NOT work, has led people back into the workforce.

Thanks for your time. Discuss among yourselves.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: bls; household; jobsreport; romney
Thoughts?
1 posted on 10/05/2012 5:15:00 PM PDT by Solson
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To: Solson
“1. September is the time when kiddos go back to school and the parent who has stayed home during the summer, now has the ability to pick up a job to make up for the increased burden on families. I can see a rise here.”

Was there a similiar bump last year in sept? or is there a history of such bumps in sept?

2 posted on 10/05/2012 5:19:59 PM PDT by JPJones (Frodo Lives!)
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To: Solson
Re: 2. With people paying more attention to politics, and seeing the strong potential for a Romney win, or at the least a Republican takeover of the Senate, people, who may have been out of work for the last months or years, have come to the realization that their gravy train, namely unemployment benefits, will no longer be extended or supported. So, it's those workers trying to get ahead of the coming tide.

If you look up the Federal Emergency Unemployment Extension you'll see that it ends around Jan 14th. Those who are on this program would have to take whatever they can get at this point.

Anybody who runs out of regular Unemployment now and goes onto this Federal Emergency Unemployment will only be able to collect until the above mentioned date (it's not a situation where if they start it now they get the 99 weeks or whatever amount of weeks the emergency aid offered. It goes only to Jan 14 whether you go on Emergency UE now, or back in august or during the Christmas week). I would also take this into consideration.

3 posted on 10/05/2012 5:21:48 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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A couple of links used to support this theory....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-falls-to-7-8-114-000-jobs-added.html

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2940888/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2940881/posts

4 posted on 10/05/2012 5:24:35 PM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: tsowellfan

So I think that would support my theory simply because very few will wait until the last moment to find that job...maybe that’s me being too generous with work ethic.


5 posted on 10/05/2012 5:26:07 PM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: JPJones

Good question. I’ll have to take a look.


6 posted on 10/05/2012 5:28:34 PM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Solson
Do you think it would be a good political move for Romney to now propose that the GOP pass a short extension of emergency unemployment of 3 to 6 months to get that expiration date out of the lame duck period?

This will send a message that the jobs situation in the US is still very bad.

7 posted on 10/05/2012 5:39:10 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Solson

I remember in 2000 the Democrats were making an excuse when the recession started it was in anticipation of Bush becoming President. So they have already admitted this type of economic movement is a possibility.


8 posted on 10/05/2012 5:47:07 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: tsowellfan

That’s interesting. It would certainly show strength against some of the perceived weakensses - namely that Romney has a heart, cares about the 47% and is willing to make some moves to shore up personal situations. But, it would add to the debt so I would support it as a political move if it was offset by some very small spending cuts.


9 posted on 10/05/2012 5:50:34 PM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Solson

It is harvest time around here. Lots of people work for a couple of weeks when the farmers are digging spuds. And then those jobs are gone. I suppose if you are collecting unemployment and do that you should report you are “working”.


10 posted on 10/05/2012 5:54:42 PM PDT by bigheadfred (wowza)
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To: Solson
Maybe more people sold a silver bowl on ebay, took a table at a flea market or mowed a neighbor's lawn for pay.

According to the BLS website, 529,000 of the household employeed are part time "due to economic reasons" which means they would prefer being full time. The margin of error for the household number is +/- 436,000 which makes it a very unreliable statistic.

11 posted on 10/05/2012 6:00:02 PM PDT by Freee-dame
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To: Solson
"Jobs surge in September"


12 posted on 10/05/2012 6:06:51 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Solson

I’m not sure its faked or not. You have to read into all the data to find the whole story. It still is not a pretty picture.
After being clobbered in the debate they cherry picked the good data , %7.8 unemployment.
Still Massive underemployment and temporary jobs.
If your one of the former two you can look on the bright side,
but are still hurting, worrying about bills and spending bare minimum to survive.
January’s gonna be very ugly for many.


13 posted on 10/05/2012 6:08:54 PM PDT by Morris70
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To: Freee-dame
"It is harvest time... "

You have a strong point - people are jumping at any job these days - even very temporary ones.

14 posted on 10/05/2012 6:15:20 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Solson

54% of the 124,000 are seasonal employees making < $15/hr.
Lots of temporary political campaign jobs and all those Halloween costume stores. Nation wide, the Halloween stores employ 30,000 to 40,000 temp jobs.


15 posted on 10/05/2012 6:21:00 PM PDT by muleskinner
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To: Solson
I would support it as a political move if it was offset by some very small spending cuts.

...which would be where Reid and his party would be caught between a rock and a hard place when they are forced to vote AGAINST that extra aid to help those struggling to find a job in this miserable economy.

16 posted on 10/05/2012 6:21:18 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: JPJones

17 posted on 10/05/2012 6:31:54 PM PDT by BillM (.)
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To: JPJones

No it’s never happened. Zerohedge has the explanation here www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/strangest-number-todays-jobs-number


18 posted on 10/05/2012 6:41:50 PM PDT by gotribe (WTF?)
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To: Solson
Wait a minute folks, wait a minute, I can explain the jump in jobs report... it's simple....

Companies are starting to rehire again in a early celebration of a Mitt Romney presidential win....
19 posted on 10/05/2012 6:43:37 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Solson

The biggest reason to question these numbers is that they came from the 0bama regime and the timing is VERY SUSPECT!


20 posted on 10/05/2012 6:46:45 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that evil, foreign, muslim, usurping, gay bastard out of MY White House!" FUBO!)
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To: tsowellfan
" ...which would be where Reid and his party would be caught between a rock and a hard place when they are forced to vote AGAINST that extra aid to help those struggling to find a job in this miserable economy. "

Yes, do it and let the Democrats in Congress squirm.... do it now so the Republicans can make the Democrats look bad.

21 posted on 10/05/2012 6:49:26 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Solson
It's baloney.

They've been able to cook the books by using a very soft household survey component for part-time jobs; that's all. Your reasoning is faulty; the numbers are supposed to be seasonally adjusted, and, if anything September is a month of declining jobs as students and other seasonal workers head out of the job market.

Economists predicted there would be between 110-120,000 net new jobs in September, and because the economy must create roughly 205,000 new jobs per month to move the UE number down -0.1, the UE number would likely remain unchanged or increase to 8.2 if we had that number of new jobs. The BLS itself projected 115,000. The actual number was 114,000. The Underemployment number remained unchanged at 14.7%. The survey of employers going into the fourth quarter says most have not hired new workers in the past year, will not hire workers in the next quarter, and if anything intend to let people go. Manufacturing has had its worst two consecutive months since 0bama took office.

Part of the Fed's rationale for QE3 was that the jobs numbers were not where they needed to be, and they anticipated keeping interest rates steady (low) through mid-2015 and doing more easing to produce jobs. What has changed since the Fed QE3 announcement? Nothing except what happened on Wednesday Night.

These numbers cannot possibly be real and everyone knows it.

22 posted on 10/05/2012 8:00:34 PM PDT by FredZarguna (And that's the end of our show! Doink.)
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To: BillM

wow, So this september was the first time in 32 years employment actually increased for 20-24 years olds....hmmmm nothing suspicious there.


23 posted on 10/06/2012 10:48:34 AM PDT by JPJones (Frodo Lives!)
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