Election prediction (vanity)

[wrhssaxensemble]

So it's still early but any thoughts- as objective as you can be on it- about who will win the presidential election and what the house and senate breakdowns would be? For president, what do you think the Electoral vote will be and why?

[Signalman]

Oregon, although only 7 votes, would be a nice catch for Romney. Is this prediction based on recent polls?

[paglia444]

The Presidential race will be super, super tight, like 2000 & 2004. I think Romney will win by 1-2%.

Basically, you have to look at the swings from election to election; those prediction a Romney landslide are not being realistic. Yes, in 1980, Reagan won by 9%, but Carter had won in 1976 by only 2%. So that was an 11% swing in one election.

Reagan won 1984 by 18.2%, so that was an R+9 swing.

In 1988, Bush won by around 7%, so that was an 11 point swing toward the Dems.

In 1992, Clinton won by 5.5%, so that was a 12.5% swing to the Dems.

In 1996, Clinton won by 8.5%, so that was another 3 point D swing.

In 2000, Bush lost popular vote by 0.5%, so that was an 8 point swing to the R.

In 2004, Bush picked up 3 points, for a 2.5% win.

Obama won 2008 by 7, so that was a 9.5% swing.

As you can see, the swings have gotten shallower. Bush’s 2000 win, swinging 8% toward the Republicans is probably the most realistic for us. That would translate to a 1% Romney win.

[Irish Eyes]

That is one purty looking map there

:)

[Stonewall Jackson]

No, it’s based on talking with my cousin and some friends who live in Oregon. There are a lot of people in the Portland area who voted for Obama who are planning on staying home on Election Day. They won’t vote for Romney, but also won’t support Obama this time around.