Posted on 10/11/2012 3:00:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If you can't figure out why CEO Steve Ballmer talks about reinventing Microsoft as a "devices and services company", Jay Chou, IDC senior research analyst, has an answer. "PCs are going through a severe slump". That's being polite in mixed company, when the F-word is so much more appropriate. Third-quarter PC shipments accentuate an already dreadful trend. Analysts expected slowing shipments as the market prepares for Windows 8, but nothing quite like this. The seasonal back-to-school lift collapsed, with even Mac shipments slowing.
Global PC shipments fell 8.6 percent year over year, according to IDC, surpassing the minus 3.8 percent forecast. Gartner's estimate is a more generous 8.3 percent decline. The United States, a region recently in love with tablets, is in free fall, with shipments down 13.8 percent by Gartner's reckoning and 12.4 percent according to IDC. For the better part of a year, analysts excused declining PC shipments as market anticipation for Windows 8. But the slowdown during back-to-school buying season foreshadows weakness ahead.
Back-to-School Bust
"There was great hope through the first half that 2012 would prove to be a rebound year for the PC market", Craig Stice, IHS senior principal analyst, says. "Now three quarters through the year, the usual boost from the back-to-school season appears to be a bust, and both AMD and Intels third-quarter outlooks appear to be flat to down".
Declines aren't just global. "The third quarter has historically been driven by back-to-school sales, but US PC shipments did not increase, not even sequentially, from the second quarter of 2012", Mikako Kitagawa, Gartner principal analyst, says.
In earlier quarters, even when other manufacturers saw declines, Apple continued a hearty growth track. Q3 is typically one of Apple's best, given the Mac's popularity among schools. But shipments fell 6.1 percent or 7 percent, respectively, according to Gartner or IDC. Apple is the bird in the coal mine, and it just croaked.
"Retailers were conservative in placing orders as they responded to weak back-to-school sales", Kitagawa observes. "By the end of September, retailers were focused on clearing out inventory in advance of the Windows 8 launch later this month".
Schools typically buy new tech when needed, not when released. Apple launched OS X Mountain Lion near the start of back-to-school buying, while Microsoft guaranteed free upgrades to Windows 8, which goes on sale in 15 days. From perspective of need and timing, there's no reason to wait -- unless perhaps if education bought something else.
Canary in Coalmine
Declining Mac shipments foreshadow much. Apple doesn't announce calendar third-quarter results for two weeks, but Q2 shows an important trend -- at least in the education market. Recent iPad sales wins include 11,000 to Mansfield Texas Independent School District and 25,000 to the San Diego Unified School District. "We sold more than twice as many iPads as Macs to US education institutions", Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer said about calendar second quarter, in July.
The point: iPad takes away some Mac sales and Gartner and IDC analysts have acknowledged similar tablet trend for Windows PCs.
Once again, tablets lift their screens and raspberry PCs. Despite continued computer manufacturer or trade analyst denials, tablets offer so much at a time when personal computers offer so much less. "While the industry has been focused on shaving excess inventory and preparing to launch a new generation of products, consumers have been looking at alternative devices like tablets", David Daoud, IDC research director, concedes.
The big, new Windows PC designs are all fourth-quarter gambles, but consumers and even some businesses aren't waiting around for them. Twenty-five percent of US adults have access to a tablet, according to Pew (22 percent as owners, 3 percent sharing with someone else in the household). Sixty-eight percent got their tablet within the last year, and 32 percent during 2012. Considering selling prices for 10-inch tablets are about the same, or even more, than laptops, each pad purchase is potentially one taken from PCs.
Keeping Faith
"The hard question of what is the 'it' product for PCs remain unanswered", Chou says. "While ultrabook prices have come down a little, there are still some significant challenges that will greet Windows 8 in the coming quarter". Microsoft and its OEM partners bank much on Windows 8 tablets, which may be the only hope.
But Windows 8 is a leap of faith, because businesses aren't buying either. "Professional PC shipments in the US began slowing in the second quarter of this year, and they continued the trend in the third quarter", Kitagawa says. "The results indicate that the replacement peak may have passed in the professional sector".
Daoud remains a Windows 8 believer. "As vendors line up innovative new products and designs, consumers are likely to respond positively during the tail-end of 4Q12, and that means a potential return to positive growth at the end of this year". But how can he not be, given IDC's client base?
Other analysts can't keep the faith. "Optimism has vanished and turned to doubt, and the industry is now training its sights on 2013 to deliver the hoped-for rebound", Stice says. "All this is setting the PC market up for its first annual decline since the dot-com bust year of 2001".
My wife is trying hard to get us to buy one for family photos and videos. I on the other hand would just rather buy a laptop or MacBook. Desktops are dead to me.
Yes, most of this depends on what you need. If you need the CPU power for whatever application you are using, then usually a desktop is still the only way to go.
My wife insists on having a desktop, as she finds laptop gaming unacceptable. She only uses the laptop for travel, etc. I have an i7 laptop with a SSD but I still use a desktop with a nice 24” IPS monitor an i7 CPU for video editing & encoding.
I can speak from experience when I say that PC hardware refresh cycles get extended when money is tight. Businesses judge that a four-year-old PC is good enough for now, so they aren't going to replace it yet. Besides, most businesses are ignoring Win8 just like they did Vista.
We've seen this same kind of market softness before, and a good economy always brings demand back. Tablets are part of the equation, but there aren't many users who are actually replacing a desktop with one.
LOL you sound like me. While my office has a new i7 gaming rig and I have a laptop and tablet for work, my attic could double as a Desktop PC museum. I have everything I have ever had, beginning with a Commodore 64, 128, Trash 80, Amiga 500, Zenith, and on through all the desktop itterations from 8088 through current.
Two weeks ago I removed the disks from and recycled 7 towers. I still have 3 or 4 towers because I can't completely break from towers. I'll probably always have a tower system for something.
I think that's a large part of it. Another aspect is that more and more folks who only use computers for web and email are going to tablets and smartphones instead of desktops and laptops. "Pro" users still need full-fledged computers, but "content consumers" are going with lighter weight options.
I used to have a phone number that ended in 8087 and I thought that was cool but none of my friends really got it.
Sure. I have both desktops and a couple of laptops - different tools for different purposes.
For me it's all about i/o: the full-size keyboard, custom mouse, and large-screen displays I have on my workstations. I spend a LOT of time at a computer and so even a small difference in usability makes a huge difference in stamina.
Superior graphics from large, dedicated cards is another reason, and so is the ability to swap new gadgets in and out. Not everybody has those requirements, and if an iPad matches theirs I say more power to 'em. I have a tiny Netbook specifically for travel - there the advantage of portability justifies the extra effort in i/o. Tools for jobs.
You got enough electricity to drive that ....no brown outs ever?
For the most part, Avid works pretty well on my i3. 90% of what I do most of it isn’t necessary. The correction and adjustment tools work rather well. I played with Premiere but wasn’t in love with it. If I ever get another mac, I will try out Final Cut.
The bulk of what video and editing I do go to the two stock agencies I deal with. Every now and then I make a few bucks. It is a good feeling when someone out there (no idea) buys something I made.
I have some ideas for something for Youtube ads that might generate a few bucks or go absolutely nowhere. Finding good model talent in the midlands of SC is not easy. Too many freaks, wackos, nuts, crazies, immatures, and chubbies. Too many here do CL and other stuff for TFP, I offer paying gigs that can be negoitated and what I have in mind is G/PG rated for the most part.
http://footage.shutterstock.com/search/?contributor_id=64505
http://us.fotolia.com/p/201245571?order=popularity
Other stuff is in Smugmug.
But am looking seriously at his case:
COOLER MASTER COSMOS II RC-1200-KKN1 Black Steel ATX Full Tower Computer Case
Room to work inside it and :
Steel ATX Full Tower
AMD Opteron 6272 Interlagos 2.1GHz 16MB L3 Cache Socket G34 115W 16-Core Server Processor
and a possible motherboard:
SUPERMICRO MBD-H8SGL-F-O ATX Server Motherboard Socket G34 AMD SR5650 DDR3 1333
Run Linux on it....should be a decent Browser Machine....should have some staying power and enough engines to keep javascript from taking over the serious browsing.
Might need a raid card so I can get more of my HSS's in there.
I think the motherboard might need a bigger case than what I would want.
Ah ha! So you are the guy who was hoarding those FPU chips I needed when I was running my spreadsheets! I’ve been hunting for you for decades...
>.Just curious but does anybody still buy tower computers nowadays?
Gamers and people who need serious, serious computing power. Like doing 3D engineering analysis of various kinds, maybe really complex financial models, that sort of thing.
>>Besides, most businesses are ignoring Win8 just like they did Vista.
There are good reasons for that. Win7 + Office 2010 is pretty darn good on anything close to decent hardware. Win8 threatens to be a high learning curve “upgrade” for the user base.
Why jump right in when what you have works fine and the “upgrade” has dubious benefits?
Personally I'm tired of Microsoft's upgrade of the year to line their pockets constantly.
I just yesterday got my new laptop. AMD Quad-core with 6 gig of ram and half a tera of main drive.
Replacing a quadcore desktop that's just gotten tired of having to anchor myself to it day in and day out.
Got a tablet but don't hardly use it. Can't run exe's on it and I need a programming system so it's not worth very much to me.
Replacing a 1 yr old
Software is another subject though. But hardware? naaah. we're set.
Yes for the workers and for work and secure information.
There is too much liability in puting company data on other people’s servers (aka the cloud for those in rio linda)
Exactly.
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