Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections-Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
Gallup ^ | 10/21/2012 | Gallup

Posted on 10/21/2012 11:54:26 AM PDT by Signalman

Click the link to see the accuracy of the Gallup poll from 1936 to present. With a few exceptions, it's been quite accurate, usually not off more than a few points either way. And those that are off more than 3 pts on the plus side have usually gone to the Dem.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: accuracy; gallup; poll
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-30 last
To: ConservativeDude

their polster keeps using 2008 modeling for their sample split....good luck with that


21 posted on 10/21/2012 2:04:54 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: traderrob6
What, is it "Let's be a douche day" at Free Republic today? There seems to be an epidemic. Let me give you some history, because your perspective seems to be rather limited. Zogby was in fact, for many election cycles, the most accurate pollster out there. The one relied on by Rush and conservatives in general as a good gauge of sentiment.

Zogby is an Arab. After 9-11, Zogby became far more antagonistic to conservatives, far more prone to use polls to create opinion, instead of reflect it. However, polling was still his business, and he always seemed to give in to reality as the election neared. His final polls remained fairly accurate, as I recall. His ego demanded accuracy as to final results, when it was too late to push poll any more.

So, if he were still in the game, I would expect him to be showing polls that give momentum to Romney and a lead, as Gallup is doing. I haven't seen any Zogby polls, which is why I asked whether he is still out there. That's when you decided to be a jump in with a rude, uninformed comment.

22 posted on 10/21/2012 2:13:40 PM PDT by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Defiant

Lighten up brother.

Zogby has never been as reliable or accurate as Rasmussen. Haven’t you ever heard of “Zogby sauce”?

In 2008 Zogby was 18th in accuracy out of 20 polls.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf


23 posted on 10/21/2012 2:53:37 PM PDT by traderrob6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Oldpuppymax

Interesting comments about Zogby. Certainly didn’t know about the Muslim connection or would never have responded. Last on-line poll they sent me included questions on BO versus Romney on various issues. I gave BO all zeros and Romney at least an 8 our of 10. Will just add them to my blocked list.


24 posted on 10/21/2012 2:59:48 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: KC_Conspirator

If you throw out 1936, yes...otherwise no.

Overestimate R by 0.33 pts...throw out 1936, it’s -0.03.
Underestimate D by 0.24 pts...throw out 1936, it’s +0.12
(an overestimate).
Overestimate liberal (Henry Wallace-McCarthy-Nader) by 0.21, or 1.3 if you consider they competed in only 3 elections.
Overestimate Dixiecrat-American (Thurmond-George Wallace)
by 0.05, or 0.5 if you consider they competed in only 2.
Underestimate Neutral (Anderson-Perot) by -0.26, or -1.67 if you consider they competed in only 3....almost entirely due to 1992.
Underestimate others by -0.09, or -0.24 for the 7 elections they appeared on the radar.


25 posted on 10/21/2012 4:12:46 PM PDT by scrabblehack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: traderrob6

nothing you say contradicts anything I said. Does that mean you’ve been hitting the bong? Zogby was, however, the most accurate for quite a few election cycles, until after 9-11, after which he became progressively more pro-Arab and therefore, pro-Democrat and therefore less enamored with the truth. His brother became a radical spokesman for some terrorist front. And, it’s “special sauce”, not Zogby sauce.


26 posted on 10/21/2012 4:21:53 PM PDT by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: traderrob6

You’re looking at a long outdated Fordham list. It was compiled just hours after the 2008 election, before the final numbers were available, and used an ESTIMATE of Obama’s win that was off by more than a percentage point.

The final Fordham report of pollster accuracy, based on the CORRECT election outcome, still has Zogby near the bottom of the list, but Rasmussen is no longer top of the heap. He was beat out by eight other pollsters.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf


27 posted on 10/21/2012 5:01:34 PM PDT by Numeros
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Numeros

He was 10th out of 16 in 2004. I don’t know how far back you want to go.

BTW I was kidding you, no need to get snotty, especially when you’re wrong.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1274530/posts


28 posted on 10/21/2012 5:38:01 PM PDT by traderrob6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: traderrob6

I wasn’t being snotty. And what was I wrong about? You posted a url for the incorrect 2008 Fordham report and I provided the correct one. I wasn’t talking about 2004.


29 posted on 10/21/2012 7:46:34 PM PDT by Numeros
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Numeros

Sorry, no you were not. The post I directed at you was intenteded for Defiant.


30 posted on 10/22/2012 4:46:46 AM PDT by traderrob6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-30 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson