Posted on 10/30/2012 9:38:02 PM PDT by crusader_against_lumpens
Election Night Results: What needs to happen for Romney to win
Once in a while, I like to get my geek hat on. I have modeled the 2012 election using Excel, and have tried out different scenarios to see what would it take, as far as change in votes from 2008, state by state, to let Romney arrive at 270.
Using the percentages for Zero and McCain from 2008, I've introduced "change-over" in votes from Zero to Romney for 2012. For example, a change-over of X% means zero's 2012 percentage would be %2008 minus X and Romney's would be %2008(McC)+X. To keep it simple, I applied the same change-over to both so, if you can imagine, X% change-over would mean X% previous 0bama voters decided to vote for Romney in 2012.
After adjusting EVs in those states affected by 2010 census (notable examples TX +4, NY -2!), I ran various scenarios with the same change-over value applied to all States across the board. I know it's likely to be somewhat different from state to state but bare with me and let's see what the results are. I also assume Romney wins 1 EV from Maine.
A 5% change-over -- i.e. 2008 NH results were 0bama 54.3, McCain 44.8, we get for 2012: 0bama 49.3, Romney 49.8. Add up all the EVs and Romney wins 286 EVs. With 5% changeover, in addition to 2008 McCain states, Romney also wins CO, FL, IN, IA, NH, NC, OH and VA. Add to McCains totals and with census adjusted EVs we get to 286.
A 6% change-over in votes from 2008 and Romney wins 316 EVs. In addition to those States listed above for 5%, Mittens also nets MN, PA. A 7% change-over: Romney 332 - 0bama 206. Add NV and WI to the total from 6% above.
Now for the nerve-wracking scenario. A 4% change-over results in Romney with 267 EV. A 4.5% (just 0.5% difference) tilts Colorado to Mittens and he wins with 276 EV, despite losing IA and NH.
So, there you have it. The Maginot line is at 4.5% change-over (across the board), meaning we need 9 out of 200 among those who voted for hope&change in 2008 to have a change of heart and pull it for Mitt and we have a winner. Either that or a combination of: 1).change-overs, 2).0bama's voters not showing up and 3).despirited in 2008 conservatives (including Ron Paul write-ins) showing up this time to make up a total of 4.5% "change we can believe in!"
I will be keeping an eye on early state results to see what the change-over is from 2008. If Mitt wins NC by 10% (0bama won it by just 0.4% in 2008), I would feel very good about the rest of the evening.
He has to win more votes than Obama in states with 270 electoral votes.
The 7% scenario above will be a landslide in my book.
Sorry but can’t relax until the fat lady sings.
By my count, Romney’s locked 257 electoral votes — including all the solid red states, plus Florida, NC, Virginia and Colorado. He needs 13 more.
- If Romney wins Pennsylvania (20), or Michigan (16), or Ohio (18) ... its over.
- If Romney wins any two of Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Nevada (6), or Iowa (6) its over (if the two are Iowa and Nevada, he’d get to 269 and win the tie-breaker in the House). New Hampshire is in play, but only 4 votes — not much there.
Basically, Obama needs to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio ... and take four-out-of-five of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa and Nevada. Obama needs 7 of 8 swing states to squeak a victory.
How Nate Silver sees a 75% chance of Obama taking 7 of 8, I don’t know.
SnakeDoc
We where hoping after Mcidiot gave up election to put on his cap in order to save the world.
I sure hope so... but I’m still darned nervous.
Know what you mean~~~in one way I want the election over~~but worry~~all in all I really think Romney will be the next president of our great country!!
And, the nightmare will be OVER!
Even more encouraging than that is the Rasmussen numbers — which has Romney at 50+ in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Colorado. That’s 279 electoral votes in the States Romney is polling above 50%.
SnakeDoc
2 NE votes for O? Last time, he only got one. You think he’s doing better this time?
I am playing it on the safe side.
Good line. Do you mind if I steal it and use it????
What in my post do you see that would suggest stirring the pot?
I shared some election math scenarios. For Romney to win votes have to change over. The question is how many.
Paranoid, aren’t we? Scared of newbies?
There must be thousands who quietly read without bothering to join because of comments like yours.
Right now, the polls I’ve seen show R enthusiasm @ 92-3, D @ 87-88. Not the sane thing a changeover I know, but you need to adjust for lower D turnout. The REAL “changeover” is the I advantage Romney has-—5-7%-— and hat will be the difference.
no, do NOT relax until it is over
This is your first and only post. You create some crackpot methodology that makes it very difficult for Romney to overcome. It is dumb on the face of it. Now Romney has to win NC by 10 to be sure of a landslide? I have been here ten years and can spot a troll a mile away.
So what. There’s a first time for everyone. My post clearly states assumptions I used. Are you challenging the margin of McCain’s loss or are unable to understand 2nd grade math so resort to ad hominem attack? If anything, the message was how many do we need to cross over. I have convinced at least two of my libertarian friends to vote for Romney even though they have reservations. What have you done for the cause?
Karl Rove’s piece in WSJ today predicts a 5.1 % changeover. Put that in your pipe and smoke it! Right in line with what i said we would need on average across the board.
Now tell me what in my model do you question. Put up or STFU.
Now, that’s an intelligent argument (unlike kabar’s). I’m in agreement that all we may need is the enthusiasm gap to account for the changeover. But still, evefytime I hear someone who voted for zero in 2008 having change of heart this year I feel better. 6 days to go!
I ran various scenarios with the same change-over value applied to all States across the board. I know it's likely to be somewhat different from state to state but bare with me and let's see what the results are.
First, it is bear not bare.
Obama won in 2008 with 53% to 46% (10 million votes). He had 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173--67.8% to 32.2%. Obama won CA by 3.2 million votes, NY by 2.1 million, and Illinois by 1.5 million, which provided him with a cushion of 6.8 million votes from just those three states. They provided 24% of all the votes cast for Obama in 2008.
The Maginot line is at 4.5% change-over (across the board), meaning we need 9 out of 200 among those who voted for hope&change in 2008 to have a change of heart and pull it for Mitt and we have a winner.
No, we need to win just some battleground states to reverse what happened in 2008. Romney does not have to win the popular vote to win electorally, but if he wins the popular vote by just 51% to 49%, there is a strong correlation that he will also win the EV. But you cannot extrapolate those numbers to individual states, which have their own voter demographics.
There is no Maginot line in terms of the national popular vote. Erecting one will have the same effect that the Maginot line had on the Germans. It won't work.
Traveling today. Will answer about the numbers tomorrow with details. It’s clear you didn’t get the point. I never cared about the national vote or the millions of votes in CA in 0bama’s favor.
But “lump”? Come on. Stay classy. Surely if you know of the Maginot line you must know what “lumpen” means and why crusading against them is in the conservative cause.
I actually work on curing “lumps” gone cancerous. Not nice at all.
Stay classy...
OK,
Here are the numbers to illustrate what I tried to convey in the main post. I never cared about the total national vote (despite your insinuation) or the margins in lib states of CA, NY or IL. Having said that, we are one nation and we are going to see a seismic wave of crossover from D to R which will span nationwide and my exercise was simply to model at what percentage Romney wins enough crossover states to win the EC.
This lists the important potential ‘turnover’ states Romney will have to win to get to 270. Next to the state is the margin of McCain’s loss from 2008. The next number is the projected margin for Romney, assuming a 5% changeover in the vote for each state for 2012. Finally, last number is the cumulative EV added to McCain’s 181 (179+1ME+1NE).
State, 2008 loss margin, 2012 R win margin(5% changeover), EV Tally.
NC, -0.4, 9.6, 196
IN, -0.9, 9.1, 207
FL, -2.5, 7.5, 236
OH, -4.0, 6.0, 254
VA, -6.3, 3.7, 267
CO, -8.6, 1.4, 276
Note that CO will tilt with at least 4.5 changeover from 2008. Hence my reference to 4.5% as the Maginot line. You didn’t appreciate the Maginot line metaphor, that’s fine. I see it differently.
This whole argument started with your questioning my motives for posting simple math comparing 2008 actual results to what we need for it to end up different in 2012. Winning NC by 10% will be no big deal as it was almost a tie in 2008 and it doen’t take much to imagine a 5% changeover in NC. Even McCain won OK (for example) by 30+% so nothing surprizing if NC ends up with 10% difference in Romney’s favor. The point was that you can make an argument that such a result from NC may hint at a sizable shift in electorate’s preference from 2008 if extrapolated to other states. Which I think is a reasonable argument given it is one country after all and the economy, Benghazi, 0bamacare or whatever else that drives people’s feelings/decisions for the vote crosses state lines.
Now that we have argued this much, I hope to be able to be in good enough mood Tuesday night or Wed to use the actual percentages from each state (at least the important ones listed above) to see how consistent the changeover was and whether my model made sense. Which brings it to Ohio. I simply refuse to believe the rest of the nation will experience a certain % changover in voting yet OH will stubbornly stay with 0bama (which is what the libs are insisting). Not gonna happen. It only needs a 2%+ changeover from 2008 which is easy to imagine is already there. I predict at least a 5% win for Romney in OH.
As for bear/bare, I use a tablet which liberally switches between various options as I type. I am surprized you’d even find it worthwhile to spell it out. Your negative attack is one of the reasons I never bothered to post or even register. I have been following FR since at least 99-2000, more so prior to elections. Life is busy enough...
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