Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Can Murder Be Tracked Like An Infectious Disease?
NPR ^ | December 06, 2012 | SHANKAR VEDANTAM

Posted on 12/21/2012 1:26:44 PM PST by nickcarraway

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

1 posted on 12/21/2012 1:26:51 PM PST by nickcarraway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

Interesting.


2 posted on 12/21/2012 1:30:00 PM PST by expat2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

Deeply associated with ‘rats packed together in ‘rat hellholes.


3 posted on 12/21/2012 1:34:20 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
"We hypothesized that the distribution of this crime was not random, but that it moved in a process similar to an infectious disease, with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents,"

I don’t think firearms would be a suitable vector for homicide.

ADC welfare payments might be a better predictor.

"We looked at homicide as an infectious disease," Zeoli said in an interview. "To spread, an infectious disease needs three things: a source of the infection; a mode of transmission; and we need a susceptible population."

Considering that homicide occurs more frequently in minority neighborhoods there might be something there to suggest susceptibility.

4 posted on 12/21/2012 1:37:06 PM PST by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pontiac
ADC welfare payments might be a better predictor.

Yup. Look for the welfare recipients, and you'll find the fatherless children. There you will find the crucible of sociopaths. How many children of single *fathers* will you find killing other children?

5 posted on 12/21/2012 1:47:13 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2

So now it is OK profile. Good!!!


6 posted on 12/21/2012 1:49:53 PM PST by w1andsodidwe (Barrak has now won the contest. He is even worse than Jimmah.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Cyber Liberty

Yup, you correctly guessed my point.

You get a cookie.


7 posted on 12/21/2012 1:51:01 PM PST by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Pontiac

It didn’t require the use of an abacus to figure that one out...lol


8 posted on 12/21/2012 1:53:26 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
"If I asked you to think of a murderer, what's the image that springs to mind?"

0bama supporter?

Owns an 0phone?

Learned to expect stuff from 0bama's stash immediately?

9 posted on 12/21/2012 2:05:11 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

““Gang members and those who live criminal lifestyles may be uniquely susceptible [to homicide perpetration],” the researchers state, citing previous research that indicates that gang homicide rates are up to 100 times that of the broader population.”


10 posted on 12/21/2012 2:09:40 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
"Study findings include:

Homicides were initially confined to the Central Ward section of the city but spread to Newark’s West and South Wards. Firearm homicides spread throughout the West Ward and the western portion of the South Ward, and gang-related homicides from the lower section of the Central Ward and outwards to the upper Central Ward as well as the West and South Wards.

Gang-related homicides were concentrated in areas of the city already suffering from higher-than-average homicide rates before they spread to adjacent areas.

Approximately two-thirds of homicide victims and over three-quarters of offenders were African-American males from 26 to 30 years old.

“Of the 20 overall homicide clusters… 75% of them have a population that is over 60% African-American and, in the census tract [center] of 70% of the clusters, over 20% of the residents live below the poverty line.”

In Newark there is a small census tract flanked by areas with high levels of gang activity that reported no gang-related homicides during the study period. The North and East Wards, which have remained relatively immune to the elevated homicide rates of adjacent wards, are comparatively wealthy and home to a lower percentage of African-Americans."

11 posted on 12/21/2012 2:11:48 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
In Newark there is a small census tract flanked by areas with high levels of gang activity that reported no gang-related homicides during the study period. The North and East Wards, which have remained relatively immune to the elevated homicide rates of adjacent wards, are comparatively wealthy and home to a lower percentage of African-Americans."

It's not the fact that they're black that causes the high crime rate. It's the culture. The poverty culture even without the element of race injected is toxic enough; add in all the race-hustlers, and the culture becomes radioactive. The reason the more wealthy areas have fewer blacks is because there is considerable pressure on poor blacks not to leave those toxic environments.

It's a horrible situation, but how do we fix it? The fact that politicians (mostly of one particular party) use those people to accrue their own power and are very adept at it makes it an extremely difficult problem to solve.

12 posted on 12/21/2012 2:39:42 PM PST by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: exDemMom
"It's a horrible situation, but how do we fix it?"

Send them to Bermuda for their education?

13 posted on 12/21/2012 2:42:06 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

I expect homicide here does not refer to the occasional killing unfaithful spouses etc. Rather it probably refers to the tribal warfare happening in ‘minority’ areas.


14 posted on 12/21/2012 2:43:48 PM PST by LastNorwegian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: exDemMom
"African-Americans." It's not the fact that they're black"

Note that there are quite a number of African-Americans who are white; Notably JF'nK's wife.

15 posted on 12/21/2012 2:44:10 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

If you follow this train of thought; the one thing that can effectively treat both infective and contagious disorders, it is to create an effective and permanent quarantine. Also prevent it procreation.


16 posted on 12/21/2012 3:17:11 PM PST by Minutemantek (VETERAN & FREE THINKER)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pontiac
"We hypothesized that the distribution of this crime was not random, but that it moved in a process similar to an infectious disease, with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents,"
I don’t think firearms would be a suitable vector for homicide.
Considering the large ratio between the number of guns to the number of murders, guns might better be considered a symptom of crime, rather than a vector of it.

Just as a high white blood cell count is indicative of infection . . .

Studying homicide via a broad public health lens, Zeoli added, also allowed researchers to identify positive outliers: "We actually had some areas within Newark that were resistant to homicide, despite being surrounded by areas with high homicide rates. So we need to investigate why those little islands exist."
First thing to look at might be the amount of surveillance against crime, and the kind/number of armed men (whether police officers or others) who can be expected to respond to crime in the area.

17 posted on 12/21/2012 3:44:44 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: exDemMom
It's not the fact that they're black that causes the high crime rate. It's the culture.

Absolutely. Here's an eye opening read: Life at the Bottom

18 posted on 12/21/2012 5:39:45 PM PST by pa_dweller (Thy princes are rebellious, and companions of thieves:... Isa 1:23)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: pa_dweller
Absolutely. Here's an eye opening read: Life at the Bottom

Yes. I was raised in the poverty culture. It took a lot of reflection and attitude examination to recognize and reject it, tenet by tenet. Hence my screen name.

19 posted on 12/21/2012 8:54:47 PM PST by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: exDemMom

Per the book, few make it out. Congratulations on your escape.


20 posted on 12/21/2012 10:04:00 PM PST by pa_dweller (Thy princes are rebellious, and companions of thieves:... Isa 1:23)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson