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Here's what I'm talking about - the year 2015!

Livingston and Penn paper: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015″.

Abstract: We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle. A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that FEW SUNSPOTS WILL BE VISIBLE AFTER 2015.

Sunspot umbral magnetic fields also show systematic temporal changes during the observing period as demonstrated by the sample spectra in Figure 1. The infrared Fe 1564.8 nm is a favorable field diagnostic since the line strength changes less than a factor of two between the photosphere and spot umbra and the magnetic Zeeman splitting is fully resolved for all sunspot umbrae. In a histogram plot of the distribution of the umbral magnetic fields that we observe, 1500 Gauss is the smallest value measured. Below this value photospheric magnetic fields do not produce perceptible darkening.

Figure 3 presents the magnetic fields smoothed by a 12 point running mean from 1998 to 2005. The ordinate is chosen so that 1500 G is the minimum. A linear fit to the changing magnetic field produces a slope of 77 Gauss per year, and intercepts the abscissa at 2015. IF THE PRESENT TREND CONTINUES, THIS DATE IS WHEN SUNSPOTS WILL DISAPPEAR FROM THE SOLAR SURFACE.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/

The big thing is that the Livingston and Penn paper came out in June 2008. Close to five years later, their predictions look a lot more accurate than the models that NASA and NOAA/SWPC are using.

There's also this graph of solar cycle variations

Notice that in solar cycles 21 and 22, the solar flare index was closely in sync with the other indicators, but in solar cycle 23 (1995-2009) started diverging. This might be connected to what Livingston and Penn are talking about.

If the solar trend continues down into 2013, and the winter of 2012-14 is unusually cold, it may be time to start worrying.