Replies

To put things in perspective...below is the Twin Cities NWS discussion for the long term:

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2
WEEKS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE FIRST SNOW OF THE YEAR IN AT
LEAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T GREAT. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
DIFFUSE AND THEREFORE THERE ISN`T VERY GOOD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
WE WILL END UP WILL WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD BETWEEN
1000-600 MB AND A BROAD/WEAK OMEGA. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING
SIGNAL...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MANAGE LIGHT SHOWERS GIVEN THE DEEP
SATURATION /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO ICE/. WE`LL ALSO SEE THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LOWER AND ESTABLISH ITSELF LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. WE ALSO THINK THE NEAR
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY SATURDAY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SPREAD A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGER PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AS
THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1” OF SNOW IS AS HIGH AS
30-40% IN CENTRAL MN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT SOME POINT WE WILL
NEED 80-100% POPS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT THIS IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR NORTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI GIVEN THE LOW TRACK.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS THE BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
/LITTLE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GROUND TEMPS
DON`T SUPPORT ACCUMULATION AND THE SNOW RATES DON`T SEEM TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLUSHY 0.5-1.5” ON
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. AFTER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONTINUED
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEST WEEK. 5 TO
15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS.