Guest essay by David ArchibaldPosted on 06/29/2014 7:10:39 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Guest essay by David Archibald
A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.
Friss-Christenson and Lassen theory, as per Solheim et al’s prediction, has the planet having a temperature decrease of 0.9°C on average over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. The more years that pass without the temperature falling, the greater the fall required over the remaining years of the cycle for this prediction to be validated.
The question may very well have been answered. David Evans has developed a climate model based on a number of inputs including total solar irradiance (TSI), carbon dioxide, nuclear testing and other factors. His notch-filter model is optimised on an eleven year lag between Earthly temperature and climate. The hindcast match is as good as you could expect from a climate model given the vagaries of ENSO, lunar effects and the rest of it, which gives us a lot of confidence in what it is predicting. What it is predicting is that temperature should be falling from just about now given that TSI fell from 2003. From the latest of a series of posts on Jo Nova’s blog:
The model has temperature falling out of bed to about 2020 and then going sideways in response to the peak in Solar Cycle 24. What happens after that? David Evans will release his model of 20 megs in Excel in the near future. I have been using a beta version. The only forecast of Solar Cycle 25 activity is Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of a peak amplitude of seven in sunspot number. The last time that sort of activity level happened was in the Maunder Minimum. So if we plug in TSI levels from the Maunder Minimum, as per the Lean reconstuction, this is what we get:
This graph shows the CET record in blue with the hindcast of the notch-filter model using modern TSI data in red with a projection to 2040. The projected temperature decline of about 2.0°C is within the historic range of the CET record. Climate variability will see spikes up and down from that level. The spikes down will be killers. The biggest spike you see on that record, in 1740, killed 20% of the population of Ireland, 100 years before the more famous potato famine.
I consider that David Evans’ notch-filter model is a big advance in climate science. Validation is coming very soon. Then stock up on tinned lard with 9,020 calories per kg. A pallet load could be a life-saver.
David Archibald, a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short (Regnery, 2014).
fyi
So... maybe the human produced CO2 is the only thing keeping us from freezing?
Yes, but the Penguins are gonna die!
Yep - globul cooling due to globul warming .....
See the threads I posted on BIG NEWS on the climatechange keyword list for some detail on the model.
For the last several years, I’ve been waiting for this cooling trend to hit. It looks like it’s just about ready to do it. I’m ready for cooler summers and colder winters. I’m going to get a pair of cross-country skis and get ready!
LOL
No. The greenhouse effect of manmade CO2 is about .117% of the total effect. (”effect” as different gases have a different effect). Add in manmade methane (a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2) and some other stuff it becomes 0.28%. The main component of the greenhouse effect is water vapor, which is almost entirely natural.
No. The greenhouse effect of manmade CO2 is about .117% of the total effect. (”effect” as different gases have a different effect). Add in manmade methane (a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2) and some other stuff it becomes 0.28%. The main component of the greenhouse effect is water vapor, which is almost entirely natural.
Good info in here on climate models and solar effects on temperature change.
I knew an old geologist (rip) that had historical charts for the solar cycles, temperature, and the price of gold! At first glance the price of gold seems goofy. Until you realize that cold weather means poor crops means low economy means higher gold, perhaps. He was so convinced of colder times ahead that he researched and modified and grew his own varieties of cold weather crops. (He was a mad genius of sorts). Some farms in Sweden use them now, with seeds stored along with thousands of others in some vault - I think in Sweden too.
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