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Anticipating the Next Pandemic
New York Times ^ | September 22, 2012 | David Quammen

Posted on 08/04/2014 12:20:50 PM PDT by nickcarraway

BAD news is always interesting, especially when it starts small and threatens to grow large, like the little cloud on the distant horizon, no bigger than “a man’s hand,” that is destined to rise as a thunderhead (1 Kings 18:44). That’s why we read so avidly about the recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease among villages in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and about West Nile fever in the area around Dallas (where 15 have died of it since July). And that’s why, early this month, heads turned toward Yosemite National Park after the announcement of a third death from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome among recent visitors there.

Humans die in large numbers every day, every hour, from heart failure and automobile crashes and the dreary effects of poverty; but strange new infectious diseases, even when the death tolls are low, call up a more urgent sort of attention. Why?

There’s a tangle of reasons, no doubt, but one is obvious: whenever an outbreak occurs, we all ask ourselves whether it might herald the Next Big One.

What I mean by the Next Big One is a pandemic of some newly emerging or re-emerging infectious disease, a global health catastrophe in which millions die. The influenza epidemic of 1918-19 was a big one, killing about 50 million people worldwide. The Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 was biggish, causing at least a million deaths. AIDS has killed some 30 million and counting. Scientists who study this subject — virologists, molecular geneticists, epidemiologists, disease ecologists — stress its complexity but tend to agree on a few points.

Yes, there probably will be a Next Big One, they say. It will most likely be caused by a virus, not by a bacterium or some other kind of bug. More specifically, we should

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science
KEYWORDS: ebola; ebolaoutbreak; pandemic
Old article, but relevant today.
1 posted on 08/04/2014 12:20:50 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

The speed of international travel exacerbates this problem immensely.


2 posted on 08/04/2014 12:22:53 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: nickcarraway

Extremely relevant when the first contaminated wetback comes across the Rio or up through the desert.


3 posted on 08/04/2014 12:27:43 PM PDT by Tupelo (I am feeling more like Phillip Nolan by the day.)
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To: nickcarraway

So Typhoid Mary from West Africa flew to England and fell dead in the airport — not to worry.

BUT now WE KNOW - or do we - whether her NEGATIVE

was a FALSE NEGATIVE - or a real NEGATIVE - or WHATTTTT


4 posted on 08/04/2014 12:39:15 PM PDT by PraiseTheLord (have you seen the fema camps, shackle box cars, thousands of guillotines, stacks of coffins ~)
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To: nickcarraway
With Baraq Hussein Ebola , - from West Africa -

at the helm, what could go wrong !!??

5 posted on 08/04/2014 12:49:56 PM PDT by PraiseTheLord (have you seen the fema camps, shackle box cars, thousands of guillotines, stacks of coffins ~)
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