Could the Nepal earthquake have been predicted by using Big Data?

Dataquest India ^ | May 4, 2015 | Srikanth R P

[Utilizer]

Using Big Data and satellite technology, an innovative company called Terra Seismic says that earthquakes can be predicted 20-30 days before they occur

With the recent Nepal earthquake claiming more than 6,000 lives, many of us have often wondered why earthquakes cannot be predicted the same way as Tsunamis or cyclones are predicted? Scientists say that while it is possible to identify the key regions where earthquakes can occur, it is impossible to predict the exact time when they would occur. For example, just three weeks ago before the quake happened, a team of French and Nepali geologists discovered that 8.0 magnitude earthquakes struck in 700 year cycles. This region had last seen an earthquake in 1344 – about 670 years ago. While the geologists knew the high probability of the quake, they could not predict the exact time.

While past data is useful, predicting a earthquake is immensely difficult as it means analyzing not only past data but also predictors which show the probability of an earthquake. This includes factors such as high temperatures, gas emissions, strange animal behavior and abnormal cloud formations — appearing along the traditional fault lines. While geologists and scientists have been studying the patterns, the huge number of parameters that have to be looked at for arriving at a conclusion, make predicting earthquakes a near impossible task. Parameters are typically looked in isolation as it is not possible to crunch every parameter and arrive at an insight.

[Utilizer]

Yes, I know, it's almost a bloody week old but I just now happened to read it.

Might be helpful in places like California.

[BwanaNdege]

predicted the same way as Tsunamis or cyclones are predicted?

Tsunamis have a warning window of a few minutes to a few hours AFTER the triggering event (earthquake or landslide) has already happened.

The tropical low pressure areas can be seen to develop over the course of several days before becoming a cyclone/hurricane, then often several more days before landfall.

With earthquakes sometimes the stress accumulation along a fault can be monitored. On deeper faults this may not be possible. Even when the stress is monitored, knowing the time of slippage let alone the duration and intensity is not possible.

[tanuki]

Hope is never out of order. Thanks for the info.

[Marcella]

I’ve sent the link to my earth scientist/geologist to read and comment to me.

There were a few earthquakes in California after the Nepal ones and the guys in CA said there seemed to be no connection to Nepal quake. My earth scientist said that large quake in Nepal was extraordinary and it moved the earth plate there and would send that energy through the plate system so the guys in California would not be able to say those quakes were not connected. That is the gist of what he said.

[Utilizer]

Please keep Me informed as to what you find out, as I live in NorCal and quakes are a constant worry so whatever information you discover would be quite welcome to hear.

[JimSEA]

California and Nepal both have plate boundary fault systems. They are quite different in other, important ways. Specifically, in South Asia the plates are colliding and in California the plates are sliding past each other in a close to north/south direction. We can determine how fast the movement is in each case but there are far too many parameters, some of which are the changes in the complicated and interrelated fault systems. So, history is reliable only in broad brush. Yeah, we can say that a system is due within “X” years but that’s still about it.

[patro]

I’ve read that animals have a keen sense of impending doom from severe weather events and earthquakes well before such events occur. Dogs are already trained to give a response to a human handler if the handler is going to experience a medical emergency. Just rambling.