[usafa92]

A few interesting things in this poll. ARG and UMass/Lowell are the only 2 tracking polls and both are in alignment on Trump, Rubio, Jeb and to some extent Cruz who is higher in the UMass poll. This is a full post debate poll and Rubio's numbers are ugly. Tanked 3 points since debate which is roughly 25% of his support. It appears to have gone to Kasich. Trump is up 3 pts or about 10% since the debate. Cruz is level since debate but down 15% post Iowa. The real outlier is Jeb. He has 9 here and has been static forever. He was at 7% here in December. He's at 18 in Emerson which was one of the more accurate Iowa pollsters. Generally speaking, ARG is not great, but they are a NH firm and if they should do anything well it should be NH. So the tracking polls align Trump, the point in time polls are a little more erratic. However, both tracking polls are picking up major Rubio slides. I think Trump wins substantially and 2nd place is a scrum.

[usafa92]

Trump NH poll ping.

[DoughtyOne]

[Parley Baer]

Wow! Cruz has dropped to 4th place just one point ahead of Jeb. I bet by tomorrow Jeb will be ahead of Ted. So sad what cheating will do when you are caught red handed.

[Gator113]

I like those numbers. The only change I would prefer is seeing Cruz in 3rd place instead of Rubio.

~~Go Trump Go~~

[entropy12]

This stands out for me...

———— Republicans (59%)-——Undeclared (41%)
Trump——32%-——————————34%

[Maelstorm]

Emerson Poll released today shows Bush with 16% but Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz are within the margin of error. The numbers for Trump are really stable he’s anywhere from 11 to 21 points ahead. Ground game isn’t going to win this one for anyone. If anyone gets within 10 points of Trump it will be a big night for them.

[HarleyLady27]

Thank you so much for the ping!!!

I know I have said this many times before, but if we don’t have Trump as President, our country is going to be over run with worse illegals than we already have, and the rest of our freedoms will be taken away or stripped even more than they are...we will have nothing for health care, our Vets and Wounded Warriors won’t be taken care of...nothing good for America if Trump isn’t President...

So, when you read the lying media posts that are on here and with people backing up the lies, stop and think, ‘Who will make America great again?’ and then the answer will come to you and you’ll understand why we have to fight to support our candidate Trump!!!

GO.TRUMP.GO....ALL THE WAY TO THE OVAL OFFICE!!!

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

The problem with states like New Hampshire is that they do not represent the party but rather a mix of the party plus independents plus party-poopers. That is just stupid and irresponsible and unfair.

The party should choose a candidate who can articulate its ideals and sell them to the public. Instead on the right it has become picking some elite picked “rock star” (no accounting for taste) without ideals other than the ability to stab conservatives in the back and to con the masses. Since that trick has been exposed as the farce it always was, voters are now in full rebellion only without a core unifying platform to keep them grounded. So the 2016 Presidential primary looks more like a reality TV show than a serious contest for who should be the next leader the of the (used to be) free world.

The corrupt media is scrabbling to find their old source of power but they are discovering a burnt out house destroyed by their own hands — years of lies and manipulation and partisanship.

[heights]

4th place, man that would hurt.

[Angels27]

So a couple of nut cases and an Amnesty pimp male the top three in NH. Great.

[SmokingJoe]

The polls are all over the place. First they missed by a mile in Iowa. Now they are totally divergent as to the second, third, fourth and fifth positions in NH. Sigh.
We will know by this time tomorrow I guess.
If it's any comfort, the final RCP polling average of NH in 2008 had Obama winning the state by 8.3 points. Hilary actually won it by three. The pollsters don't appear to have improved any in eight years despite all the huge strides in technology and massive leaps in computational power.

[DannyTN]

So if those were the actual results, given the 10% threshold for awarding delegates in N.H., the actual results would look like this:
Trump 45% (33/74)
Kasich 23% (17/74)
Rubio 19% (14/74)
Cruz 14% (10/74)
Jeb 0% Didn’t make threshold.
And the state does not count towards the 8 majority wins that each candidate must have to be nominated.

But if Cruz comes in at 9.9% instead of 10% then it looks like this...
Trump 52% (33/64)
Kasich 26% (17/64)
Rubio 22% (14/64)
Cruz 0%
Jeb 0%
And the state counts towards the 8 majority wins that Trump needs to be nominated.

[theoldmarine]

I bet when Cruz saw this poll he said, “ARGghh.., gotta find a way to steal me some votes!”

[StAnDeliver]

"Trump wins substantially and 2nd place is a scrum."

An ugly scrum, and anyone not in the top 4 needs to gtfo...

[only1percent]

The only real threat of a moderate nominee is for Rubio to mop up Bush, Kasich and Christie early. If 2, 3, or 4 of them are in play than essentially every state will be a plurality for Trump or Cruz. That creates huge momentum and soon will also provide all the delegates in the winner-takes-all state.

The math is hugely in Trump’s favor vs Cruz. He’ll hold his own versus Cruz in Republican and swing states and will easily win Democratic-leaning states (which have a modest delegate penalty, but still provide a huge amount of delegates).