It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates

fivethirtyeight.com ^ | Mar 16, 2016 | Harry Enten

[ConservingFreedom]

You ever feel like you don’t know exactly how to interpret an election night? That’s how I feel about the Republican side of the aisle after Tuesday. Donald Trump won at least three of the five states that voted on Tuesday, including Florida. (We’re still waiting on a call in Missouri, but Trump leads.) Marco Rubio ended his campaign. John Kasich stayed alive by winning Ohio. Given that Trump likely won every state except for the home state of another candidate, it has to be considered a good night for him. And yet, the main question — are we going to a contested convention? — remains unanswered.

The good news for Trump is that he won the most delegates on Tuesday, and was able to make up for the 66 delegates he lost in Ohio by winning Illinois and likely Missouri, which could bring as many as 95 delegates, depending on how the district allocation shakes out.

Moreover, Trump performed strongly in all the states that voted Tuesday. He won 36 percent of the vote in Ohio, 39 percent in Illinois, 40 percent in North Carolina, 41 percent in Missouri and 46 percent in Florida. His average performance was 40.3 percent. That’s far above his average 34.6 percent that he had on March 1. Granted, the states that voted tonight were different than the states that voted two weeks ago, but there isn’t any sign that Trump’s support is falling. If anything, these results suggest it may be somewhat rising.

The bad news for Trump is pretty clear: even with a Missouri win, he would still have won only a little more than 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. Moreover, he’ll need to win a little more than 54 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. That’s certainly possible given there are several winner-take-all states to come, and Trump may do well in big East Coast states such as New York and New Jersey. Trump is also in a good position in Arizona, a winner-take-all state that votes next Tuesday.

Still, there are plenty of ways the delegate math can go haywire for him. My own delegate estimate has Trump falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs because he has done poorly in the west so far, and many of those states haven’t voted yet. It’s also possible that Kasich plays better than we might think among moderate voters in the remaining states to vote in New England and Mid-Atlantic.

Moreover, there are plenty of signs that Trump would have lost a majority of states that voted on Tuesday had Rubio not been in the race. I’m talking about Missouri and North Carolina, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in a one-on-one race in the exit polls. Trump may be rising, though he is still not getting close to a majority of the vote in most states. If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate, they probably can beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests.

When you put it all together, I think the result on Tuesday can best be defined as messy. Trump is likely to have a plurality of delegates after all the contests have finished up on June 7. But a majority? We still don’t know.

[DoughtyOne]

Here is what I was talking about yesterday.

Note how many delegates and the percent of the remaining delegates each candidate needs to win.

With winner take call, Trump is now certain to get the delegates needed. Compare his needs with that of Cruz or the others.

While you're at it, look at the (red, toward the bottom, just off center to the right) number of unassigned delegates out of those who have been decided so far. Looks like they are dragging their feet reporting out so as to downplay the importance of yesterday's primaries, and the size of Trump's dominance.

[JimRed]

It’s not clear that Trump will get a majority. What IS clear is the will-of-the-people-be-damned attitude of the GOPe.

[ConservingFreedom]

With winner take call, Trump is now certain to get the delegates needed.

Winner take all helps him - I can't agree it's yet "certain".

Compare his needs with that of Cruz or the others.

Oh, he's the only one with a shot, I agree.

While you're at it, look at the (red, toward the bottom, just off center to the right) number of unassigned delegates out of those who have been decided so far. Looks like they are dragging their feet reporting out so as to downplay the importance of yesterday's primaries, and the size of Trump's dominance.

LOL! Maybe Boehner paid them off. ;D

[napscoordinator]

I hate this crap. In 2012, nobody was saying Romney may have problems getting the delegates and that was with Santorum winning 11 states.

[pfflier]

There are two clear indicators after last night:

1) The only real candidates left are Trump and Cruz.

2) Kasich is an absolute jerk. He has no chance yet he is thrusting the whole process potentially into a contested convention. He may have guaranteed that the system is dysfunctional now.

With Rubio out the speculation is that his supporters would gravitate toward Cruz which could shift the delegate balance during the rest of the primaries giving us a contested convention.

Meanwhile the dims are solidifying behind the hildabeast while the republicans (again) self flagillate.

[taxcontrol]

[Cruz supporter]

I predicted before Iowa, that Trump would go into the convention with about 1,300 delegates, enough for the nomination. I have not seen anything to change that number.

[theoilpainter]

Nice work. What happens to the delegates that “belong” to the candidates who have dropped out? Are they now free agents, or are they still bound to the now defunct campaigns? If they are free agents, to do as they please, and all back Cruz or Kasich, how does that change the math?

Thanks.

[ConservingFreedom]

Could happen.

[fortheDeclaration]

More wishful thinking from the GOPe.

Kasich only won his own State I believe, by 8 pts.

Trump is going to roll over the rest of the States.

[DoughtyOne]

I’m not sure.

I do believe they are bound.

[Joe Brower]

It's a safe bet that if any candidate besides Trump had this sort of lead already, the matter would already be decided.

Tells us lowlies everything we need to know.

[TexasFreeper2009]

That was written before the night was over and delegates were assigned.

Now that we can see how many delegates Trump actually got last night.... Trump has an EASY path to the nomination since he got nearly every delegate last night besides Ohio.

[Kenny]

[Cruz supporter]

Some friendly advice, let go of Cruz before he drags you into the abyss.

[ConservingFreedom]

That was written before the night was over and delegates were assigned.

I don't think that's correct - the story is dated today, and its percentage of remaining delegates required is in good agreement with DoughtyOne's up-to-date figures in pots #2.

[TexasFreeper2009]

quote “Donald Trump won at least three of the five states that voted on Tuesday, including Florida. (We’re still waiting on a call in Missouri, but Trump leads.)”

It’s clear this was written earlier in the night since the author didn’t know he had won Missouri which is HUGE since Trump got a TON of delegates from that win.

[taxcontrol]

I am a conservative and will ALWAYS vote for the most conservative candidate that aligns with my values. Right now, that is Cruz. However this nomination process I dont get a say as I live in Colorado.

If Cruz makes the nomination (unlikely but still possible) I will vote for him in the General.

Since there is enough difference between Trump and either Hillary or Sanders, I will hold my nose and vote for Trump if he is the nominee.

If the GOPe attempts to rig the process and nominate someone else, I will vote for a Trump and/or Cruz Independent ticket. If neither decides to run Independent and the GOP is still offering up someone else, I will vote 3rd party.

[qman]

All i know is i will never vote for Trump, write in Cruz if i have too. It’s not a big deal so don’t get pissy i live in Maine and Hillary will win Maine.

[Kenny]

I am a conservative and will ALWAYS vote for the most conservative candidate that aligns with my values. Right now, that is Cruz.

Good for you and welcome to Amerika.

[yuleeyahoo]

Trump performs poorly in Caucuses and quite well in primaries. How many caucuses remain?