Posted on 03/17/2016 4:40:34 PM PDT by Signalman
The really important results in the March 8th and March 15th primaries were in Michigan and Illinois. These two hardened blue states show how Kasich and Cruz split the anti-Trump vote and allow Donald to walk away with a plurality which gives him most of the delegates.
In Michigan, Trump got 37% but won because Cruz got 25% and Kasich won 24% bisecting the anti-Trump vote. In Illinois yesterday it was the same story. There, Trump got 38% while Cruz won 30% and Kasich got 20%. It is almost impossible to see how Kasich can win a single state with Cruz in the race.
Cruz can win pink or purple states with Kasich in the race as long as he gets the Rubio vote. Had Rubio’s people voted for Cruz, he would have won North Carolina and Missouri. But there is no guarantee that Rubio’s people would go to Cruz rather than to Kasich.
And a viable, strong John Kasich cannot win any states but can throw them — one after the other — to Trump. Were Kasich out of the race, virtually all of his vote (and his portion of the ex-Rubio vote) would go to Cruz, assuring him of repeated victories over Trump. Kasich’s strategy is perfect for the Democratic Party’s rules which bar winner-take-all or winner-take-most primaries and require that all states vote on the basis of proportional representation. In such a universe, the more candidate that run the greater the chance that the vote will split and that nobody will win a majority. But the Republican rules are different. Arizona, New Jersey, and a few other states are overtly winner-take-all. But most of the others are winner-take-most where the at large delegates all go to the candidate getting a plurality and many of the congressional district delegates do too.
If Trump wins a plurality — with Kasich and Cruz splitting the vote — he walks off with the lion’s share of the delegates. And the nomination.
OH MY!
Could Don Corleone please have a quiet talk with John Kasich?
It has been suggested that Kasich’s job is to stay in the race so the establishment has an ‘active candidate’ in Cleveland.
And we know their votes were anti-Trump votes how?
Is Cruz getting out?
If Cruz would get out, because he cannot win now, we would not have to worry about the establishment. Kasich would be a goner.
Hopefully Trump for President because if not we are done.
Cruz can’t win regardless
There....fixed it.
Kasich believes that and has said so.
This is such wonderful news. One thing that Ksick has not been called is “ smart”.Hang in there John. You will make it!! /SARC/
We already know they lie to get a story or ‘breaking news’ but this is getting a little over the top...
Time for everyone to start laughing and turning off the radios, TV sets, computers and go outside and enjoy life...
Yupp!
Did you honestly think, for even one minute, this ridiculous #never movement included Cruz?
There are three guys left, and two spots on the ticket. Who do YOU think is going to be left off?
The theory is ludicrous that Cruz somehow wins out in a 1-1 process vs. Trump.
From the looks of it Trump should be able to get to 1237 pretty easily.
How many times have we heard, if this candidate drops out Cruz
will pick up all the votes.
It hasn’t happened.
And with primaries moving to the north east and a couple out West,
Trump will score huge victories.
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