Posted on 08/01/2016 9:13:21 AM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has dozens of tables. One is Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product. I added color and symbols in front of the table data. Hover to see the column descriptions and table data. Well I saw what I remember from decades ago.
"The contributions to percent change in a real aggregate, such as real GDP, provide a measure of the composition of growth in the aggregate . . . contributions to percent change [is] a valuable tool for economic analysis."
I wondered what would I get if I added color and symbols in front of the table data. Hover to see the column descriptions and table data. Well I saw what I remember from decades ago.
In the 1950s, 60s, 70s, 80s rows of blue years (see below) following recessions (business cycles they were called) indicated the end of the downturn and one could count on the economy growing bigger than ever.
Like the 1950s and '60s, available in separate 1.5.2 tables along with '30s and '40s, the 70's and 80's were when there were economic downturns which were always followed by strong recovery with more jobs and an even larger economy.
In terms of this illustration that means rows of blue (with a ♥) years announcing the best years yet. White (with a ♥) following a blue year indicates sucessive best years. White (with a ♥) at the beginning years simply means best years so far.
"Where did it all go wrong, Blanche?"
Today best years ever (coded blue) are few. Instead everything is red of simple downturns followed by upturns but none good enough to be the best year ever. The worst years ever continue indicated by a • in the red.
However there's this. Reagan's best annual table data GDP was +7.3 percent. There have been years since which are just short of +5 percent but they are coded red with a ♦. If the table included the 40's data Reagan could not beat WWII's +18.9 percent.
A ♦ is just a marker.
Notice the blue years around the end of the '90's. That was at the time of the Republican Congress's budget reforms I believe.
Health care and federal non-defense spending were cases that I reversed good and bad.. increases were bad and decreases were good for the economy. A few columns like "Change in private inventories" I suppose could go either way.
Column 00 shows the recession years.
| 01 Gross domestic product Percentage points at annual rates: |
| 02 Personal consumption expenditures |
03 Goods |
04 Durable goods |
05 Motor vehicles and parts |
06 Furnishings and durable household equipment |
07 Recreational goods and vehicles |
08 Other durable goods |
09 Nondurable goods |
10 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption |
11 Clothing and footwear |
12 Gasoline and other energy goods |
13 Other nondurable goods |
14 Services |
15 Household consumption expenditures (for services) |
16 Housing and utilities |
17 Health care |
18 Transportation services |
19 Recreation services |
20 Food services and accommodations |
21 Financial services and insurance |
22 Other services |
23 Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs) \1\ |
24 Gross output of nonprofit institutions \2\ |
25 Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions \3\ |
| 26 Gross private domestic investment |
27 Fixed investment |
28 Nonresidential |
29 Structures |
30 Equipment |
31 Information processing equipment |
32 Computers and peripheral equipment |
33 Other |
34 Industrial equipment |
35 Transportation equipment |
36 Other equipment |
37 Intellectual property products |
38 Software \4\ |
39 Research and development \5\ |
40 Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals |
41 Residential |
42 Change in private inventories |
43 Farm |
44 Nonfarm |
| 45 Net exports of goods and services |
46 Exports |
47 Goods |
48 Services |
49 Imports |
50 Goods |
51 Services |
| 52 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment |
53 Federal |
54 National defense |
55 Consumption expenditures |
56 Gross investment |
57 Nondefense |
58 Consumption expenditures |
59 Gross investment |
60 State and local |
61 Consumption expenditures |
62 Gross investment |
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1. Net expenses of NPISHs, defined as their gross operating expenses less primary sales to households.
2. Gross output is net of unrelated sales, secondary sales, and sales to business, to government, and to the rest of the world; excludes own-account investment (construction and software).
3. Excludes unrelated sales, secondary sales, and sales to business, to government, and to the rest of the world; includes membership dues and fees.
4. Excludes software embedded, or bundled, in computers and other equipment.
5. Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development. Software development expenditures are included in software investment on line 38.
the path to this table
I downloaded 1969 to present All Sections -- however Table 1.5.2 is in Section 1.
Recessions
See more at: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Looks like the opening scene in The Matrix.
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