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HUSSMAN: This Pace Of GDP Growth Is 'Always' Associated With Recession Joe WeisenthalJanuary 30, 2012 Fund manager John Hussman continues to hammer away at the economy and the market. His latest note is called Goat Rodeo, which is defined as: "Appalachian slang for a chaotic, high-risk, or unmanageable scenario requiring countless things to go right in order to walk away unharmed." After discussing the leading indicators, he writes: ...while we typically discourage drawing inferences from any single indicator, it's at least worth noting that with the release of Q4 GDP figures, the year-over-year growth rate of real U.S. GDP remains...

That's the final, pathetic growth number for 2011. From the just-released GDP report: Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010. The increase in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The good news — the annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter went up a full point from Q3′s final number to 2.8%. The bad news: the first estimate for Q4 is only three-tenths of a point better than the first estimate for Q3: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance� estimate released by the Bureau...

BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The World Bank warned developing countries on Wednesday to prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the euro area debt crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in 2008/09. In a report sharply cutting its world economic growth expectations, the World Bank said Europe was probably already in recession. If the euro area debt crisis deepened, global economic forecasts would be significantly lower. "The sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone appears to be contained," Justin Lin, the chief economist for the World Bank, told reporters in...

China's GDP reaches 47.1564 trillion RMB (=7.5 trillion USD at the current market price or 7.31 trillion USD at year-average price, grown from 5.88 trillion USD last year, which means 25%+ annual growth rate). Last year China has: Produced 680 million tonnes steel (roughly equal to the combination of the rest world) Produced 19.2 millioin cars and trucks (world highest) Produced 19.09 million square meters's properties (more than the combination of the rest world) Produced 20.7 trillion tonnes cement (50% more than the combination of the rest world) Produced 15.7 million tonnes chemics (world highest) Generated 406.7G kwh electricity (again,...

The soaring national debt has reached a symbolic tipping point: It’s now as big as the entire U.S. economy. The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programs, now tops $15.23 trillion. That’s roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the U.S. economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, the latest estimate. Private projections show the economy likely grew to about $15.3 trillion by December — a level the debt is likely to surpass this month.(U.S. Debt)

Over the past several months, President Obama has spent much time pleading for patience on the sluggish economy and ongoing high unemployment, arguing that the economic hole was so deep and the crisis so monumental that a slow recovery — now in its 30th month — was inevitable. But in making his case, Obama appears to be perpetuating several myths about the recession he inherited and the slow recovery over which he's presided.

The U.S. economy expanded less than thought during the third quarter as consumer spending fell short of an earlier estimate, though signs point to stronger growth in the final months of the year.

With precisely one year left for the world and all of its inhabitants, at least according to the Mayans, not to mention on the day of the Winter Solstice, it is only fitting that US debt, net of all settlements for all already completed bond auctions, is now at precisely $15,182,756,264,288.80. Why is this relevant? Because the latest annualized US GDP, according to the BEA, was $15,180,900,000.00. Which means that, as of today, total US debt to GDP is 100.012%. Congratulations America: you are now in the triple digit "debt to GDP" club! (naturally, this is using purely "on the...

With the ongoing conversation everyone has been having on income disparity, here's a Mint Blog infographic analyzing the phenomenon state by state. Unsurprisingly, smaller states with fancy New York City-like commuter neighborhoods are among the richest, while Southern regions are among the poorest. What's truly interesting are a few unexpected states in the second-to-poorest bracket, including Florida, Idaho, and Montana:

Total Debt Now Over $15.1 Trillion It seems like it was only yesterday that we celebrated 15,OOO,OOO,OOO,OOOBAMA day. Two weeks later, we are now well over 100 billion in debt over this historic landmark, or $15.11 trillion to be precise, following the predicted $55 billion increase in debt with the settlement of all auctions from last week. And aside from the mind-staggering rate of new debt increase why else is this number notable? Because as we learned 10 days ago, total Q3 GDP in current dollars is $15.18 trillion. In other words, US debt/GDP is now 99.5%, the highest it...

With all the talk these days all around the world of fiscal consolidation, it may interest you to know that the US still has an extremely small percentage of its workers employed by the public sector, at least compared to Europe. The largest? According to Citi's Tobias Levkovich, the answer is China, where nearly 50% of workers are somehow in the government sector. Granted, this could include state-owned-enterprises, which remain a large chunk of the Chinese economy, but either way it does confirm that for Chinese employment to remain solid, Beijing will have to keep its foot on the gas...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than originally estimated in the third quarter, mainly because companies reduced inventories and did not invest as much. The Commerce Department cut its estimate of gross domestic product to 2.0% from a first reading of 2.5%. Government’s second revision of GDP includes data not fully available earlier, such inventory levels and trade data. As a result, it paints a more accurate picture of U.S. growth. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the government to trim its estimate to 2.3%. Still, the 2.0% growth rate was the fastest since the fourth...

As I mentioned last month when the advance estimate for GDP came in at 2.5%, don't get too excited by the number. Well, lo and behold in today's Q3 GDP revision, the estimate went down from 2.5% to only 2% in the quarter. And in a year-over-year growth analysis (always my preference as it automatically adjusts for seasonality) the economy continues to deteriorate, only growing 1.5% over the third quarter last year: Even more disturbing, real disposable personal income was flat compared to a year ago. This is a number that only turned negative in Q1 2009 and before that...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than previously estimated in the third quarter, but weak inventory accumulation amid sturdy consumer spending strengthened views output would pick up in the current quarter. Gross domestic product grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Tuesday, down from the previously estimated 2.5 percent.

NRO's Andrew Stiles flags this exchange from Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee ealier this week: (Insert video segment) The quote that matters starts around 1:25, when Elmendorf says that, according to CBO's estimates, with the stimulus legislation in place, "the level of GDP would be a little lower at the end. That is, a net negative effect on the growth of GDP over 10 years." Elmendorf then confirms that CBO estimates that the economic drag will continue in the following decade: SESSIONS: And in the next 10 years, since you’re carrying that debt...

(...)Until recently only Chinese dissidents and some economists criticized the Politburo policy, which can be compared to printing money: building cities for no one and the sale of land. This time Chinese professor of finance, the television host, Larry Lang confirmed that Chinese economy is almost bankrupt: -the real public debt is US $ 5.68 trillion -the real inflation rate is 16 percent

LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- The U.S. economy should grow only moderately over the next two years, generating just enough jobs to slowly reduce unemployment, University of Michigan economists said Thursday. [Snip] The annual economic forecast said that economic output growth should be about 2.5 percent in both 2012 and 2013, up from this year's projected rate of 1.8 percent. The national jobless rate should drop from 9 percent now to 8.8 percent in late 2012 and to 8.5 percent in late 2013, forecasters said.

America’s economy may not have a spring in its step, but at least it’s steady on its feet after a recession scare just a few months ago. The recent pace may not be sustainable, though. Instead, the U.S. may be enjoying an Indian summer, with the economy briefly heating up in the fall before cooling back down.

On The Continuing Zombification Of The US Economy By Bill Bonner 11/04/11 Paris, France – We have been exploring the zombification of the US economy. Major industries — finance, health, education and defense — have been taken over by zombies, parasites whose real interest is to transfer wealth to themselves, from the part of the economy that remains productive. As the economy becomes more zombified, the part of it dominated by these non-productive industries increases, leaving fewer resources for the productive part. And as the productive part weakens, so does the entire economy’s ability to produce real wealth, or grow...

The current economic crisis rivals the one of the 1930s.  Despite shameless propaganda by government and its cronies in the media, people understand that the situation is getting worse.  Consumer confidence continues to decline as does confidence in the future.We are headed for an event that history will record as worse than the Great Depression.  It is unavoidable.The Level of DebtThe principal reason for the dire prediction is the level of debt outstanding.  Current debt levels are simply not sustainable.  Assets and cash flows cannot support or service this debt.No economic recovery can occur without massive debt reduction.  As...

GOLDMAN: Stop Kidding Yourself, The Economy Is Weak And Got Worse In October Joe Weisenthal Oct. 29, 2011, 5:28 AM Goldman's own proprietary Goldman Sachs Analyst Index does not reflect the modest cheer that people are feeling about the economy. Remember, this past week, Q3 GDP came in at 2.5%, nearly double the pace of the previous month. And the stock market has rebounded sharply thanks to a surprise string of stronger-than-expected economic data. But don't get too excited. From Goldman's Shuyan Wu The GSAI fell 0.9 points from 43.3 in September to 42.4 in October. This is the third...

As children across America costume themselves as ghouls, ghosts, goblins and former North African dictators Monday night, they may have missed the most spine-chilling scare of the day. According to calculations based on the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, on All Hallows’ Eve the United States’ total debt will surpass its Gross Domestic Product for the first time since World War II. That means the average American’s share of government debt is more than an average American makes in a year. Spooky! On October 19 Bloomberg released a chart showing that per capita gross government debt would to exceed...

"The Commerce Department released third-quarter gross domestic product numbers today, showing that the economy grew almost twice as fast over the summer compared to the spring. Quarterly GDP numbers serve as a ready gauge of the relative health of the economy and are often the first statistic invoked to assess our current collective standard of living. But how precisely is GDP calculated and what goes into these numbers?"

Why is income inequality rising for U.S. families and households, but not for individual Americans? Having now shown that there has been absolutely no significant change in the level of inequality among U.S. individual income earners from 1994 through 2010, we thought we'd take a step back and look at the data for U.S. families and for households to examine those trends over time. The chart below shows what we find for each grouping of Americans according to their Gini Coefficient, where a value of 0 indicates perfect equality (everyone has the same income) and a value of 1 indicates...

U.S. growth accelerated in the third quarter as consumers and businesses ramped up spending, a report that shows the economy remained resilient in the face of strong headwinds. Gross domestic product in the July-through-September period expanded at a 2.5% annual rate, the government said Thursday. That’s nearly double the 1.3% rate of growth in the second quarter and much faster than the first quarter’s tepid increase of 0.4%.

Thai flood damage likely to cost Bt100-200 bln, to shrink GDP by 2%: World Bank BANGKOK, Oct 20 - Thai flood’s damage is likely to cost at least Bt100 billion and perhaps even amount to more than Bt200 billion and to shrink the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by two per cent, Kirida Bhaopichitr, World Bank senior economist for Thailand said on Thursday. Thai economic growth in the fourth quarter is projected to be negative. However, the World Bank must continue monitoring the situation for further assessments as the flood crisis has not ended yet. Thai economic growth will be...

Little to say here: total debt is now at, obviously, a new record high of $14,856,859,498,405.73, which is a $20 billion increase overnight, $67 billion in the past two days, and $162 billion in the last three days. We will repeat the last part: total US debt has increased by $162 billion in three days. Said otherwise, total US Debt/GDP is now 98.9%. Please carry on.Today's debt summary.Yesterday's Debt summary:And from the day before:

The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace than previously thought in the second quarter of 2011, led by a pickup in consumer and construction spending, government data showed Thursday. Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. The rate of GDP growth was faster than the government’s prior reading of 1.0%.

Obama: ‘You Can’t Have a Modern Industrial Economy’ Under GOP Tax Plans By Fred Lucas September 26, 2011 (CNSNews.com) – Under Republican tax proposals it would not be possible to have a “modern industrial economy,” President Obama said during a town hall event in Mountain View, Calif. on Monday. A member of the audience asked whether he could pay more in taxes, adding that he had been helped by federal Pell grants and infrastructure and job training programs that allowed him to be successful. “Right now, we’ve got the lowest tax rates we’ve had since the 1950s,” Obama said during...

The World Economic Forum recently published its annual Global Competiveness Report. Our continual slide from first in 2008 to fifth worldwide has received some coverage by the press, but no one has written about the underlying causes for the drop or given any meaningful insight into who the WEF is and how the rankings are compiled. The mainstream press has completely missed the story. The WEF describes itself as an independent international organization committed to “improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.” The rankings...

The World Economic Forum recently published its annual Global Competiveness Report. Our continual slide from first in 2008 to fifth worldwide has received some coverage by the press, but no one has written about the underlying causes for the drop or given any meaningful insight into who the WEF is and how the rankings are compiled. The mainstream press has completely missed the story. The WEF describes itself as an independent international organization committed to “improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.” The rankings...

The U.S. current-account deficit fell to $118 billion in the second quarter, or 3.1% of GDP, from first-quarter levels of $119.6 billion, or 3.2% of GDP...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — So it’s official: In August there was no jobs growth, no sales growth and no price growth... That flat performance is pretty appropriate description about the economy: one that might not be in a recession but isn’t going anywhere fast and is very vulnerable to contraction.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Confronted with an economy that has decidedly underperformed this year, economists are scaling back their growth forecasts for 2011 and next year. In their latest forecast, top economists with the National Association for Business Economics predict that the economy will grow 1.7 percent this year -- down from the group's May prediction of 2.8 percent expansion. For 2012, the group is forecasting growth of 2.3 percent, compared to a May forecast of 3.2 percent growth. [Snip] The survey was done before President Barack Obama appeared before Congress on Thursday to unveil a new $447 billion plan to...

The ruling Socialists and the opposition center-right Popular Party cut a deal after hours of frantic negotiations to propose a law under which, starting in 2020, the national deficit cannot surpass 0.4 percent of the country's GDP............

Citigroup Downgrades Global GDP Growth For 2011 & 2012 Posted: August 25, 2011 at 8:02 amJohn C OGG Citigroup is downgrading the global growth targets for 2011 and 2012. The economic team there now sees the global growth Citigroup cut its 2011 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from a prior rate of 3.4%. More importantly, it is cutting the global GDP growth for 2012 down to 3.2% from 3.7%. This might not seem like much of a cut and might not sound recessionary. Technically it is not, but it just shows that maturing scale of the economy as China...

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just released its August budget and deficit projections. They predict 2.7% GDP Growth, 8.5% unemployment in 2012 — which Jim Pethokoukis notes, is more bullish than both than expected by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Some highlights: * $1.284 trillion deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30 — down slightly from the past two years. This is the third-largest deficit in the past 65 years. Better fiscal outlook for the next ten years — assuming current law remains unchanged and the "Super Committee" completes its work. * Deficits from 2012-2020 will run up an...

Real GDP per person is a figure far more real to the average citizen than GDP growth per quarter, especially in countries with growing immigrant populations like Canada and the United States. So, using this figure, The Economist made a chart to show how countries have been recovering since Q4 2007. If you take a look below, you'll see that the real GDP per person in the U.S. is still down 4% from pre-recession levels. In China and India, it has jumped 35% and 22% respectively. Of the G7 countries, Germany is the only one that has made it to...

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Does anybody now doubt that this is on purpose? I mean, after all, Barack Obama inherits a AAA credit rating from George W. Bush, and look what he does to it. Obama is always running around complaining and whining and moaning about all that he inherited from George W. Bush. Well, he inherited a AAA credit rating, an unemployment rate of 5.7%. Does anybody doubt that this is on purpose? Well, look, my credit rating doesn't suck. There are a lot of individual Americans whose credit ratings aren't in trouble. The United States has never been in...

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Why am I here today? This always happens. Every time we have one of these national holidays, nobody tells me. I don't keep track of national holidays. Obama's birthday. I don't keep track of national holidays, nobody ever tells me, and I end up being the only person in the country working. Why is the Dow going down? Let me tell you why the Dow is going down, is because there's a story out there that said that Bernanke and Obama are out of bullets. There's a story that says Bernanke and Obama are out of bullets,...

US debt shot up $238 billion to reach 100 percent of gross domestic project after the government's debt ceiling was lifted, Treasury figures showed Wednesday. Treasury borrowing jumped Tuesday, the data showed, immediately after President Barack Obama signed into law an increase in the debt ceiling as the country's spending commitments reached a breaking point and it threatened to default on its debt.

In 1850 sub-Saharan Africa had about the same GDP per capita as America. The difference between America’s average standard of living today and that of Burundi is a mere 0.9 percent of extra growth a year. If Presidents Lincoln through Reagan had put in place policies, taxes, or regulations that slowed economic growth a mere 1 percent of what it actually was, 99 percent of us would now be living in soul-crushing poverty. That is why America’s anemic 1.3 percent growth rate last quarter is worrying. Moreover, what was by comparison a sterling 1.8 percent growth rate in the...

Canada Surprise GDP Economic Contraction, Largest Drop in Two Years, It's Not Temporary Economics / Canada Jul 31, 2011 - 06:32 PM By: Mike Shedlock Lost in the US deficit battles and the pathetic US GDP statistics comes yet another surprise: Canada’s Economy Shrank 0.3% in May Posting the Largest Drop in Two Years Canada’s gross domestic product fell in May by the most in two years due to temporary disruptions in the mining and oil and gas sector, government data showed. Output fell 0.3 percent in May to C$1.26 trillion ($1.32 trillion) on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being...

Q2 GDP - The Numbers Don't Add Up Q1 2011 GDP was revised one final time from 1.9% to 0.4% and Q2 2011 GDP the first estimate was 1.3%. Before analyzing the data I have one very simple question.Economic growth slowed during Q2 as acknowledged by the Fed and indicated by regional Fed surveys, ISM, durable goods, etc so how could Q2 GDP be higher than Q1 GDP? That would imply the economy accelerated and clearly that has not happened. In other words just as Q1 2008 was eventually shown as the start of the great recession so will Q2...

Spending Has Collapsed, The Economy Is Next Mac Slavo July 29th, 2011 SHTFplan.com We’ve been warning about it since the beginning of this crisis – that consumers are simply not interested in spending money they don’t have. In the first quarter of 2011 the government attempted to convince us that the economy was growing at a slow, but steady, rate of 1.8%. This was used as evidence the economic recovery had taken hold. President Obama and his administration specifically told us that a depression had been avoided: We can safely say that we are no longer facing the potential collapse...

Sometimes, you'll see numbers from the Obama Administration that just make your head wanna explode; and, this morning was no exception.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Consumers all but shut their wallets in the second quarter, causing the U.S. economy to grow at a tepid pace. To make matters worse, growth in the first quarter was much slower than initially thought, according to new government figures released Friday. "It's quite worrisome as the economy remains at stall speed in the second quarter," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets. "If that continues, then it would raise the risks of a double dip." Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, rose at an annual rate of 1.3%...

US economic growth is much weaker than first thought, government figures show. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. Economists had forecast growth of 1.8%. And in a surprise move, first-quarter growth was revised down sharply from 1.9% to 0.4%. This evidence of economic weakness increases the pressure on the government as it attempts to increase its borrowing limit. Slow growth makes it more difficult for the US to tackle its deficit. If Congress does not raise the debt limit by 2 August, the US government could face funding shortfalls...

The U.S. economy stumbled badly in the first half of 2011 and came dangerously close to contracting in the January-March period, raising the risk of a recession if a stand-off over the nation's debt does not end quickly.