Free Republic

On Thursday’s broadcast of the Fox Business Network’s “Cavuto: Coast to Coast,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein stated that the White House is okay with the latest GDP report, “especially once you get under the hood, you take out some of those more volatile components, consumer spending and investment look great.” And “the underlying economy is solid as ever.” Guest host Edward Lawrence asked, “When you dig into this GDP report…you find that the first quarter personal consumption grew at 2.5%, the non-defense government spending grew at 0.3%, but if you look back to the fourth...

On Thursday’s broadcast of the Fox Business Network’s “Cavuto: Coast to Coast,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein stated that even with the latest GDP report, we “really haven’t seen much in terms of slow growth yet.” And the job market is “really what matters to people, you don’t eat GDP, your paycheck matters most.” Bernstein said, “We really haven’t seen much in terms of slow growth yet. Let’s talk about the job market, because that’s really what matters to people, you don’t eat GDP, your paycheck matters most. And there, you’ve seen growth continuing to defy...

U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year, and prices rose at a faster pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 2.4% following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the previous period. Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain...

The US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the period. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.5% during the period. The reading came in significantly lower than fourth quarter GDP, which was revised up to 3.4%. The softer-than expected print is a sign that the Federal Reserve's historic interest rate hikes are putting pressure on consumers and the economy. Investors...

That’s Bidenomics for you! The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.4% MoM (notably worse than the -0.1% MoM expectations), and December’s 0.1% declin e was revised down to a 0.2% decline. The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.10 The biggest negative contributor was average workweek at -0.18 This is the 22nd straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 23rd month of 25) – equaling the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008) “The U.S. LEI fell...

I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is an amazing contrast to our 81-year old President with dementia who can barely speak while Putin was articulate. Not at all what Hillary Clinton was raving about (she is still furious about losing to Trump after losing to Obama). One thing that caught my attention was Putin talking about The Fed’s endless printing of money. Well, THAT is how the US grows GDP these days. Borrow and spend with the private sector as an after thought. Let’s revisit the HORRIBLE jobs report from December. Not only were all...

Biden and Congress’ insane spending and debt issuance are simply unsustainable. Isn’t it wonderful to be 81 years old like Biden and a have a credit card with seemingly no credit limit? And partner with other octogenarians like Pelosi and McConnell to bankrupt the US? Free-spending US Senate Demagogue Democrat Chuck Schumer is only 73. But all these elderly politicians are heaping debt on to backs of younger Americans. The “surprise” Q4 GDP report showed GDP rising by $182.6 billion. Unfortunately, Biden had to borrow $834 billion to get $182.6 in GDP. Graphically, we can Biden’s folly where Q4 public...

To quote Cousin Eddie from Christmas Vacation, “That there’s an RV.” Recreational goods and vehicles (aka, RVs) were second in Personal Consumption spending after America’s overpriced healthcare. Spending on RVs makes sense since housing has become unaffordable for millions of households under Bidenomics. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the...

When Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) part ways, it’s a red flag. Contrary to popular belief, Fed rate drops often precede stock plunges, signaling economic slowdown. A staggering 96% of Americans worry about the economy, per Intuit Credit Karma. Unprecedentedly, less than 10% of companies boast strong Altman Z-scores, reflecting a concerning financial landscape. November’s Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies spiked 141% YoY to 842, per Epiq Bankruptcy. The 30-day z-score on the $spx indicates a bearish trend.

Where has all the GDP gone? Not to wages. As expected, Q3 Real GDP was revised upwards to 5.2% annualized. Of course, this shatters JKP’s talking points that Biden inherited a train wreck of an economy from Trump. Q3 2020 Real GDP grew at over 30%. And on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, US real GDP grew at 3.0% in Q3. Unfortunately, real hourly compensation grew at a measly 0.6% YoY. Meanwhile, home prices have hit an all-time high. Too bad real wages are so low.

POINTS Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, ahead of the 4.7% estimate. The sharp increase came due to contributions from consumer spending, increased inventories, exports, residential investment and government spending. While the report could give the Fed some impetus to keep policy tight, traders were still pricing in no chance of an interest rate hike when the central bank meets next week.

The United States is borrowing its way to disguise recession.The headline economic figures for the United States look robust. However, details show concerning weaknesses.Real GDP growth surged to 4.9% in the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of 4.5%. However, some analysts, including Bloomberg, expected up to 5% growth based on the nowcast estimates.United States unemployment is also low, at 3.8%, but real wage growth remains negative, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between September 2022 and the same month of 2023, the decrease in real average weekly earnings was 0.1%. This means that a tight labor market is...

Slippin’ into darkness! Bidenomics, that is! Joe Biden is not a friend of the US middle class. The St Louis Fed’s real time GDP tracker known as Nowcast has Q3 GDP at -0.07%. This happening at M2 Money growth collapses. If you want to feel good, check out Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate (housing economist Raphael Bostic is its President) which has Q3 GDP at 5.6%. When will The Fed return to it low riding rates days? Reverend Biden.

Billions Biden, the President who loves to (recklessly) spend taxpayer money (mostly on large donors). is going to have difficuly spinnig the latest employment figures. First, ADP jobs added only 177k jobs in August. Second, job openings (JOLTs) are collapsing (blue line) while the S&P 500 index keeps climbing (orange line). The face of Bidenomics. The high Priestess of BIG GOVERNMENT and oppression.

Bidenomics has a new themesong! We got trouble in Potomac City (aka, Washington DC). US Q2 GDP was revised sharply downwards to 2.1% QoQ. Much lower than the expected 2.4% QoQ. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in...

According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, the balance of global economic power is projected to shift dramatically in the coming decades.More specifically, analysts believe that Asia could soon become the largest regional contributor to world GDP, surpassing the traditional economic powerhouses grouped together in the Developed Markets (DM) category.In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes Goldman Sachs’ real GDP forecasts for the year 2050 using a voronoi diagram.Data and HighlightsThe following table includes a regional breakdown of expected real GDP in 2050. All figures are based on 2021 USD.Based on these projections, Asia (ex DM) will...

Bidenomics, which is also Yellenomics (the former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary) has The Good, The Bad and The Ugly to say for it. First, The Good! The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now real time GDP tracker has Q3 GDP at … 4.12%. Pretty good, but bear in mind that there is still more than $8 trillion in Fed Monetary Stimulus outstanding (aka, Yellenomics). Second, The Bad. Bank credit growth is now negative. As lenders are tightening credit standards for commercial and industrial loans. The ugly? There are several candidates for this dishonor. One, The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators...

As Peggy Lee warbled, “Is that all there is?” Both The Federal government and Federal Reserve went wild with stimulus surrounding the Covid economic shutdown in 2020. The excessive reaction function is still working its way through the economy and we finally got Q2 Real GDP QoQ of 2.4%! But seriously, is that all we got from an increase in public debt of 39% since January 2020, and M2 Money increased 36%. And, of course, The Federal Reserve double their balance sheet from 2020 to today … and are slow walking its removal. So, with Biden’s insane green spending and...

A sum of its parts, every U.S. state plays an integral role in the country’s overall economy. Texas, for example, generates an economic output that is comparable to South Korea’s, and even a small geographical area like Washington, D.C. outputs over $129 billion per year. *** California is by far the biggest state economy in the U.S. at $2.9 trillion in real GDP—and when comparing its nominal value ($3.6 trillion) with national GDPs worldwide, the Golden State’s GDP would rank 5th overall, just below Germany and Japan. *** Altogether, California, New York, and Texas account for almost one-third of the...

Kiel Institute support tracker from downloaded data XLS file. All aid to Ukraine cumulative from 2/22/2022 to 5/31/2023 Country $billion %GDP Australia 0.46 0.03 Austria 2.04 0.43 Belgium 1.90 0.32 Bulgaria 0.48 0.57 Canada 5.73 0.29 Croatia 0.36 0.53 Cyprus 0.06 0.22 Czech Republic 1.57 0.56 Denmark 3.01 0.76 Estonia 0.54 1.46 EU (Commission and Council) 29.84 0.17 Finland 1.97 0.66 France 8.11 0.27 Germany 19.58 0.46 Greece 0.74 0.34 Hungary 0.48 0.27 Iceland 0.03 0.13 Ireland 0.84 0.17 Italy 6.28 0.30 Japan 7.19 0.15 Latvia 0.51 1.28 Lithuania 0.76 1.14 Luxembourg 0.22 0.26 Malta 0.03 0.19 Netherlands 7.24 0.71...