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A Tesla Short Seller Gets Q2 Results...
YouTube ^ | 8/2/18 | Michael March

Posted on 08/03/2018 8:04:09 AM PDT by Moonman62

YouTube Downfall Hitler Parody

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxEClGh6Mus


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Humor
KEYWORDS: downfall; musk; tesla
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxEClGh6Mus
1 posted on 08/03/2018 8:04:09 AM PDT by Moonman62
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To: Moonman62

HA HA!!! Excellent! Dang, I hate short selling, betting on failure and benefiting when people lose their jobs. Hope the hedge fundies get ruined, like they wish on others.


2 posted on 08/03/2018 8:12:53 AM PDT by StolarStorm
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To: Moonman62

$60b market cap for a company with 0 earnings ever, never hits its guidance, never meets its commitments, ~$12b in debt and whose entire business model relies on massive government subsidies to exist. I don’t short these kinds of stocks because of the risk involved, but this one of the most overvalued companies since the dotcom era.


3 posted on 08/03/2018 8:12:54 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

I don’t short these kinds of stocks because of the risk involved, but this one of the most overvalued companies since the dotcom era.

...

At least since Amazon. I wonder whatever happened to them.


4 posted on 08/03/2018 8:25:34 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Give a man a fish and he'll be a Democrat. Teach a man to fish and he'll be a responsible citizen.)
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To: rb22982

“entire business model relies on massive government subsidies to exist.”

Please cite.


5 posted on 08/03/2018 8:29:56 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: rb22982

Watch this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vhaY56VcLGQ


6 posted on 08/03/2018 8:32:29 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: Moonman62

“My Fund Manager,” LMAO!!!


7 posted on 08/03/2018 9:04:13 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: TexasGator
~10-20% of their direct revenue is a federal or state tax credit for electric cars and solar; but probably nearly all of their revenue exists because of that big massive rebate customers get buying their car as very few would be buying it without the tax credit. Here is an article talking about what is coming up when they run out of federal credits on their cars.
8 posted on 08/03/2018 9:15:17 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: Moonman62

Amazon at leasts makes a profit, but yes its overvalued too


9 posted on 08/03/2018 9:15:40 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

Used to work in ethanol. Enjoyed it. Left when I got to the point that being dependent on .gov without the benefits was stupid.


10 posted on 08/03/2018 9:29:57 AM PDT by redgolum
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To: rb22982

You cite a big massive rebate but then cite that it is going away.

LOL!


11 posted on 08/03/2018 9:33:29 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: rb22982

Are you in Einhorn’s hedge fund?


12 posted on 08/03/2018 9:36:20 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: TexasGator
Every sale they've ever had so far in their existance has had a massive rebate. The company would not exist today without those rebates as it never would have made it off the ground. Whether it needs it in the future to stay afloat remains to be seen. Given that they asked for retroactive rebates from vendors and suppliers going back 2 years recently, isn't a very good sign.

Given that all stock values should represent a discounted, please show me how you can get a PV of $72 billion (equity + debt) given their current and expected cash flows using a reasonable discount rate of say 7-10%.

13 posted on 08/03/2018 9:37:30 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: TexasGator

Nope, except for the stock I own in the company I work for from my stock grants, and a handful of individual bonds, nearly all of my wealth is in passive index funds or rental properties. I rarely trade individual securities, and wouldn’t even own much in my own company if I wasn’t required to hold 1x base salary as a VP Finance/IR for my firm (not that I dislike my company as an investment, but I prefer diversification).


14 posted on 08/03/2018 9:44:35 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

5/72 gets you there but Musk has bigger plans.


15 posted on 08/03/2018 9:45:23 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: TexasGator

5/72 what, exactly? They have negative cash flow currently TTM. Their 2018 and 2019 consensus is negative cash flow in the billions in total, and its likely they miss their guidance/consensus over that time period and perform even worse than that.


16 posted on 08/03/2018 9:56:35 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

The only way Amazon really makes a profit is because of AWS, without them they probably would show losses.


17 posted on 08/03/2018 9:58:50 AM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: rb22982

“Their 2018 and 2019 consensus is negative cash flow in the billions in total”

DUDE, not based on ‘consensus’.


18 posted on 08/03/2018 10:00:25 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: TexasGator

lmao They have a history of missing consensus, even after having to revise their outlook lower. They have missed consensus 5 out of the last 7 quarters. At the beginning of this year, consensus EBITDA for 2018 was $1.8 billion. It’s now $1.4 billion. At the beginning of this year, consensus EBITDA for 2019 was $3.7 billion and is now down to $3.3 billion. So yes, I discount consensus quite a bit - it’ll likely be worse.


19 posted on 08/03/2018 10:10:30 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: Captain Peter Blood

True, but they still have that. What does TSLA have that is profitable or will be in the relatively near future? Again, I’m not saying AMZN isn’t overvalued - it is - it’s just less so than TSLA.


20 posted on 08/03/2018 10:11:32 AM PDT by rb22982
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