“I agree with him that is a good formula.”
I submit that it will not turn out to not be a good formula. We will never know the true death rate because most people never know they have it as they spread it, especially younger people.
We never know how many cases of anything never get reported yet we still come up with mortality rates. Why should this be done different or not at all?
Agreed and that will make the death rate even smaller.
I agree.
The ONLY way this is going to be estimated is to look at year over year death rates and causes. If there is a 2% “bump” in deaths over the statistical norm for the time period—there is your number.
With something like this, it is impossible to “count” how many are sick. What most people are using is the hospitalization rate. If you did that with the normal flu (deaths/hospitalization) the numbers would cause a HUGE panic. Yet we deal with it every year.
Finally, in places without good healthcare systems or general systems (China, Iran, Africa...) you will never even know how many people died at home without being tested.