US net of plague ship USS NY (35% of total gross US of 2,038). Actuals through 3/28, 3/29-4/5 projected based on event-to-date ratio with Italy.
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA-NY 310.9 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 2 2/22/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.0 3/1/2020 2 100.0% 1 3 2/23/2020 3 50.0% 1 0.5 3/2/2020 6 200.0% 4 4 2/24/2020 7 133.3% 4 0.8 3/3/2020 9 50.0% 3 5 2/25/2020 10 42.9% 3 0.8 3/4/2020 12 33.3% 3 6 2/26/2020 12 20.0% 2 0.9 3/5/2020 14 16.7% 2 7 2/27/2020 17 41.7% 5 0.9 3/6/2020 18 28.6% 4 8 2/28/2020 21 23.5% 4 1.1 3/7/2020 19 5.6% 1 9 2/29/2020 29 38.1% 8 1.3 3/8/2020 22 15.8% 3 10 3/1/2020 34 17.2% 5 1.3 3/9/2020 26 18.2% 4 11 3/2/2020 52 52.9% 18 1.7 3/10/2020 31 19.2% 5 12 3/3/2020 79 51.9% 27 2.1 3/11/2020 38 22.6% 7 13 3/4/2020 107 35.4% 28 2.5 3/12/2020 42 10.5% 4 14 3/5/2020 148 38.3% 41 3.0 3/13/2020 49 16.7% 7 15 3/6/2020 197 33.1% 49 3.6 3/14/2020 54 10.2% 5 16 3/7/2020 233 18.3% 36 3.9 3/15/2020 59 9.3% 5 17 3/8/2020 366 57.1% 133 5.3 3/16/2020 69 16.9% 10 18 3/9/2020 463 26.5% 97 5.4 3/17/2020 85 23.2% 16 19 3/10/2020 631 36.3% 168 5.9 3/18/2020 107 25.9% 22 20 3/11/2020 827 31.1% 196 6.0 3/19/2020 137 28.0% 30 21 3/12/2020 1,027 24.2% 200 5.6 3/20/2020 184 34.3% 47 22 3/13/2020 1,266 23.3% 239 5.3 3/21/2020 240 30.4% 56 23 3/14/2020 1,441 13.8% 175 4.3 3/22/2020 332 38.3% 92 24 3/15/2020 1,809 25.5% 368 5.0 3/23/2020 362 9.0% 30 25 3/16/2020 2,158 19.3% 349 5.3 3/24/2020 410 13.3% 48 26 3/17/2020 2,503 16.0% 345 4.0 3/25/2020 621 51.5% 211 27 3/18/2020 2,978 19.0% 475 3.8 3/26/2020 774 24.6% 153 28 3/19/2020 3,405 14.3% 427 3.6 3/27/2020 957 23.6% 183 29 3/20/2020 4,032 18.4% 627 3.1 3/28/2020 1,310 36.9% 353 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.1 3/29/2020 1,556 18.8% 246 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.1 3/30/2020 1,766 13.5% 210 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.1 3/31/2020 1,960 11.0% 194 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.1 4/1/2020 2,200 12.2% 240 34 3/25/2020 7,503 10.0% 683 3.1 4/2/2020 2,420 10.0% 220 35 3/26/2020 8,215 9.5% 712 3.1 4/3/2020 2,650 9.5% 230 36 3/27/2020 9,134 11.2% 919 3.1 4/4/2020 2,946 11.2% 296 37 3/28/2020 10,023 9.7% 889 3.1 4/5/2020 3,233 9.7% 287 Gross differential 3.1 Population differential 5.1 Per capita differential 15.9 Growth rate 2x 2x 29 Days 33.1% 28.1% 37 Days 28.3% 2.5 Days 24.4% 2.9 days Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)
The graph starts on the 10th death not the 10th day.
The problem is you don't know when day 1 was. Picking the 10th day, approximately the 1000th case starts with a statistically significant number of cases, normalizing the time 0 for staring the exponential growth.
thanks for this, but something else is that I don’t trust New York’s numbers. I do extremely large data set analytics in the exabyte range and I would easily toss New York’s numbers because they are so far outside all ranges as to be suspect and untrustworthy.