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Corona Virus Daily Thread #31

Posted on 03/29/2020 9:35:29 AM PDT by Mariner

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3829269/posts?page=1


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: chinavirus; coronavirus; cvlivethread; livethread
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To: Conserv; Black Agnes
And, what happened to the 2wks? 2 wks and the US is Italy. 2 wks!

Thanks for the question. 2 weeks ago, Italy was at a little over 2000 deaths. Today, the US is at a little over 2000 deaths, exactly as predicted. Hope that helps.

41 posted on 03/29/2020 10:03:27 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Professional

Military leaders have gone to a bunker in cheyenne. Please get off this thread and go lend your expertise to them and tell them they are over reacting.


42 posted on 03/29/2020 10:04:16 AM PDT by RummyChick
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To: Conserv
“We’re Italy in 2 wks. Period.

Glen Beck was screaming that. But. we're more than 6 times the population of Italy. We can absorb Italy's nominal numbers easily. Plus we're about to go into full-time wartime production mode - hospital beds, ventilators. We need PPE, though. Lots of it.

43 posted on 03/29/2020 10:04:55 AM PDT by Fido969 (In!)
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To: Mariner
Your list reads like a Kindergarten list of “good citizen” rules.

Actually, that is true, thank you. If only our schools would inculcate those values, starting with Kindergarten.

44 posted on 03/29/2020 10:05:54 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: RummyChick

LOL, yeah, the entire military leadership has hunkered underground as the virus goes exponential... Hey chick, you should double check the tv channel, sounds like you’re watching some Hollywood scare film.


45 posted on 03/29/2020 10:07:13 AM PDT by Professional
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To: Professional

So Fearpers, you think the buys in the Cheyenne Bunker will nuke NYC to keep the rest of us safe? Has Will Smith showed up yet to help in the fight?


46 posted on 03/29/2020 10:08:17 AM PDT by Professional
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To: nwrep; Travis McGee; AndyJackson; CodeToad; wastoute
Why 10th day? Why not do an appropriate series analysis from day 1 comparing any countries under consideration? Why trust a 3rd party source that arbitrarily used 10th day in order to game the stats? Why not just use source data and look for yourself? Is it because the trend lines wouldn't be as alarming?

US net of plague ship USS NY (35% of total gross US of 2,038). Actuals through 3/28, 3/29-4/5 projected based on event-to-date ratio with Italy.


		Italy	60.5		IT v US		USA-NY	310.9	
Day	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily	Ratio	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.6	3/14/2020	54	10.2%	5
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.9	3/15/2020	59	9.3%	5
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	5.3	3/16/2020	69	16.9%	10
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	5.4	3/17/2020	85	23.2%	16
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.9	3/18/2020	107	25.9%	22
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	6.0	3/19/2020	137	28.0%	30
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	5.6	3/20/2020	184	34.3%	47
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	5.3	3/21/2020	240	30.4%	56
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	4.3	3/22/2020	332	38.3%	92
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	5.0	3/23/2020	362	9.0%	30
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	5.3	3/24/2020	410	13.3%	48
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.0	3/25/2020	621	51.5%	211
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	3.8	3/26/2020	774	24.6%	153
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	3.6	3/27/2020	957	23.6%	183
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	3.1	3/28/2020	1,310	36.9%	353
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	3.1	3/29/2020	1,556	18.8%	246
31	3/22/2020	5,475	13.5%	650	3.1	3/30/2020	1,766	13.5%	210
32	3/23/2020	6,077	11.0%	602	3.1	3/31/2020	1,960	11.0%	194
33	3/24/2020	6,820	12.2%	743	3.1	4/1/2020	2,200	12.2%	240
34	3/25/2020	7,503	10.0%	683	3.1	4/2/2020	2,420	10.0%	220
35	3/26/2020	8,215	9.5%	712	3.1	4/3/2020	2,650	9.5%	230
36	3/27/2020	9,134	11.2%	919	3.1	4/4/2020	2,946	11.2%	296
37	3/28/2020	10,023	9.7%	889	3.1	4/5/2020	3,233	9.7%	287
															
	Gross differential				3.1				
	Population differential				5.1				
	Per capita differential				15.9				
									
Growth rate				2x					2x
29	Days		33.1%					28.1%	
37	Days		28.3%	2.5	Days			24.4%	2.9 days
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)	

47 posted on 03/29/2020 10:09:05 AM PDT by semantic
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To: RightGeek

Nancy Pelousi will critisize him cor that, right?


48 posted on 03/29/2020 10:09:29 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: Mariner

Proggies are calling for a lonnnnng lockdown, saying if it saves one life it’s worth it.

Remember that well. Apply it to other issues often, like the wall, abortion and drugs.


49 posted on 03/29/2020 10:12:50 AM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: nwrep

We also have a huge chunk of the country shut down slowing the spread.


50 posted on 03/29/2020 10:13:59 AM PDT by riri (If people still dropping, most aint shopping.)
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To: semantic
Why 10th day?.

The graph starts on the 10th death not the 10th day.

The problem is you don't know when day 1 was. Picking the 10th day, approximately the 1000th case starts with a statistically significant number of cases, normalizing the time 0 for staring the exponential growth.

51 posted on 03/29/2020 10:14:10 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Mariner

The future’s uncertain but the end is always near.....


52 posted on 03/29/2020 10:14:10 AM PDT by HandyDandy (All right then I will go to hell. Huckleberry Finn)
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To: Professional; RummyChick

She didn’t say ‘the entire military leadership’.

As posted on previous threads....

U.S. military command teams in charge of protecting homeland security are being isolated in the infamous Cheyenne mountain bunker where they will remain ‘sealed off’ until the coronavirus pandemic passes

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162937/Coronavirus-drives-army-command-teams-infamous-Cheyenne-mountain-bunker.html

If you don’t agree with things posted about CV on designated CV threads, why not simply ignore/walk on by? Easy to do, for many. More difficult to do, for a few.

You can take your rude comments to a flubro thread. I hear they’ve got one designated, just for flubros.


53 posted on 03/29/2020 10:14:27 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Professional

So are you claiming i am lying about military leaders going to the bunker in cheyenne


54 posted on 03/29/2020 10:15:42 AM PDT by RummyChick
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Comment #55 Removed by Moderator

To: Jane Long

I’d hate to have the world think that FR has nothing but morons as members.

The virus isn’t nearly as deadly as the flu, but stupidity has its consequences nonetheless.


56 posted on 03/29/2020 10:17:28 AM PDT by Professional
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To: RummyChick

Damn...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162937/Coronavirus-drives-army-command-teams-infamous-Cheyenne-mountain-bunker.html


57 posted on 03/29/2020 10:17:31 AM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Black Agnes
I’m hoping the shutdowns/slowdowns have really decreased the number.

Shutdown effects should start to be seen 5 days in, full effect about 2 weeks. There has been a slowdown of the rate of increase in cases, from 50% a week and a half ago, to about 20% now.

There won't be an effect on the death rate until incubation time+disease course runs, maybe about 17 days after shutdown, fatality rate is behind the case rate. Death rate is at 1.75% now, and statisically has to increase. It will probably reach 3% of the cases identified.

Waiting to see the numbers flatten. Hope that starts happening. Sick of being locked down.

58 posted on 03/29/2020 10:18:43 AM PDT by Fido969 (In!)
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To: Professional

I’d hate to have the world think that FR has nothing but morons as members.

= = =

Agree...so, please stop trolling on the CV threads, and proving your own point.

Thanks and take best care.


59 posted on 03/29/2020 10:19:23 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Jane Long

“If you don’t agree with things posted about CV on designated CV threads, why not simply ignore/walk on by?”

Some dogs got to piss on everything, then go back and smell it.


60 posted on 03/29/2020 10:21:19 AM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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