Posted on 9/6/2020, 12:38:01 AM by Libloather
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we're past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden's the favorite.
Yet, it continues to be clear that the national polling will continue to overstate Biden's edge. An examination of the state polls shows a race that, while not a tossup by any means, is closer than the national polls would indicate.
The national polls after the convention tell a pretty clear story. Biden is up by around 8 points. That's what the CNN/SSRS poll shows. That's what the Grinnell College/Selzer and Co. poll has. The average, depending on how you compute it, has basically the same thing.
As I noted last week, elected incumbents rarely gain ground after the conventions. The two biggest gainers in the modern era were Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both picked up about 4 points, which would only cut Biden's edge by about half.
Biden's true lead (or true margin), however, is closer to 5 points. What do I mean by that?
Remember, the only thing that ultimately matters is winning 270 electoral votes in the Electoral College. To understand how easy a path each candidate has, you have to look at the state level polling.
The polling there is not nearly as universally good for Biden. Yes, some of it was good for Biden. He was up 8 points in a Fox News poll of Wisconsin. But a Quinnipiac University poll in Florida had the spread between Biden and Trump at just 3 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Joe Biden’s true lead is non-existent.
Translation he does not have a lead at all
The leftist media Nazis poll 47% democrats and 25% republicans and then boldly announce that Biden has a 3% lead over Trump.
These bullshit polls never end. Same crap we saw in 2016.
Trump in a landslide, and stuff your vote-stuffing crap up your dupa, rat pigs.
Lead? No comprende.
Lead - Sometimes referred to as Plumbium. (Pb)
Has the Repub ever had a lead in the polls in the last 50 yrs?
In 2016 I think they had Trump behind by 105 points at this point in the cycle. Of course he lost 732 to 0 in the EC.
Just the media’s way of admitting they have been lying and that Trump is really in the lead.
Which poll was that? That should have equated to a double-digit lead for Biden.
The question is-— WHY IS HE LEADING?
Joe Bidens true basement smaller than it appears
Prepping their base for a bellyflop.
The Bye-dumb/ Harris ticket for 2020, is weaker then Clinton/Kaine in 2016. What scares me, is Harris is even dumber than Biden and she isn’t 78 years old.
The Democrats seem to forget that Hillary won the “popular vote” in the 2008 Democratic Primary. Obama won because he won more delegates.
Hillary didn’t become a weak candidate, until her historic defeat by Republican Donald Trump in 2016. I’m smiling right now just “feeling her pain” of not being President.
If true, Trump's toast.
I don't know about the accuracy of the polls but I do know that both sides are dug in. There's no way to move 5% of the electorate between now and the election in the current environment.
After a 4 day, 1500 mile road trip thru rural Iowa, Nebraska and NE Colorado last week, I can report seeing ONE Biden Harris sign just SW of Audubon Iowa...ONE...
And widespread Trump Pence flags, banners, billboard sized signs...Lots of flags flying as well...
Strictly anecdotal I know, but encouraging...I was impressed at how much support I saw on display in rural Iowa...Appears the part of farm country I traveled thru supports Trump.
Makes me wonder how many other regions are engaging in quiet support as opposed to the more vocal (loudmouthed) Left?
The only way Biden wins is Massive mail in voter fraud...
He has absolutely no on the ground lead.. none
My sense is that Trump should carry the states he won in 2016 and maybe pick up 2 or 3 he lost by narrow margins. The main thing the Democrats have going for them is voting by mail and the chaos that will create. Unfortunately several of the critical swing states have Democrat governors—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I’m not sure how much damage the governor alone can cause—it may depend on which party controls the state legislature or which party the state attorney general belongs to.
“The question is-— WHY IS HE LEADING?”
Many Americans both Republican and Democrat, are into a weird ideology called political correctness.
It’s the only reason I can come up with, for people to vote for weak leadership(Biden/Harris) instead of strong leadership(Trump/Pence).
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