Serbian refusal for Putin: will there be a Russian military base in the Balkans [What next from Russia?]

The Russian proposal came as an extremely unpleasant surprise to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (right)

In late July and early August, the Western Balkans were stirred up by two statements that made some wonder: Will a new war really start soon?

First, Vladimir Djukanovic, one of the top functionaries of the party of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, announced the possibility of Serbia's "denazification" of the region, following Russia's failed attempt in Ukraine.

A few days later, the Russian ambassador to Belgrade, Alexander Botan-Kharchenko, announced the possibility of creating a Russian military base in Serbia.

Vucic quickly denied the statement of his subordinate, called it ill-conceived and untimely. And allegedly the topic was closed. But in neighboring Albania, Kosovo, Croatia and Montenegro, the alarm remained: What if they start?

But the statement of the Russian ambassador about the possibility of creating a military base caused considerable concern both in the region, in the European Union and in the United States, which perceived these words as a real threat to stability and peace in the Western Balkans.

This was seen as another attempt by Russia to light a match near a barrel of gunpowder.

The story about the Russian base is quite old. The Kremlin has long dreamed of getting a military base, and talks about this began back in 2007.

Then the future president of Serbia and the current (at that time) head of the Radical Party Stanislav Nikolic and the Russian ambassador discussed this issue during one of the regular meetings. And they stressed that it is very "delicate" and has not yet been considered.

Later, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation openly stated in a military way that the base would be created if "Serbia needed it."

We emphasize that the discussion of this issue took place in 2007, almost a year after Montenegro left the United State of Serbia and Montenegro. By declaring independence, Podgorica added another problem to Belgrade's painful question about the future of Kosovo and the formation of a peacekeeping mission.

Russia was against the recognition of Montenegro's independence, which took place a little later – in February 2008. And not because it defended the interests of Serbia, which was not and is not a priority of the Kremlin.

The focus was on the mission in Kosovo, where Moscow wanted to take leadership positions.

But it was about creating an international EU mission with the participation of NATO, which meant not only that the Russian Federation did not have any advantages in the mission, but also did not even leave the opportunity to catch on in a new state or in Serbia.

Since then, finding ways to ensure a military presence in the region and trying to become an influential player in the Western Balkans has become an obsession of Moscow strategists.

At the same time, the Russian Federation did not see any other mechanism than the creation of a military base – a typical Imperial-colonizing vision.

Since the Serbs refused, the Russians turned their attention to Montenegro, finally recognized its independence and offered to create their own naval base in the port of Bar.

But then (and still in force!) President Milo Djukanovic did not like the idea. And he started a circus that lasted until Montenegro gained NATO membership in 2017. Russian ambassadors, various ministers, prime ministers and even Vladimir Putin began to come up with proposals for the base from the president to the minister of defense, from the head of government to the minister of foreign affairs, from the Speaker of the Assembly to the chief of the General Staff.

But the Montenegrins said: great, but this is not my competence, we need the decision of the president, the prime minister and further...

But in Serbia, the Russian Federation managed to achieve partial success. In 2009, Russia and Serbia agreed to create an emergency response center, and in 2012, the so-called "Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center" was launched in the city of NIS, which is more like a Rapid Reaction Force Base or spy Center.

There was no doubt about it from the very beginning, as Elena Poptodorova, a former Bulgarian ambassador to the United States, clearly said: "NIS is certainly a Russian military base in Serbia.if you put the S-400 (anti-aircraft missile system) there, it will cover Bulgaria and the entire region of the Western Balkans." Multi-vector Serbia: what shapes Belgrade's foreign policy and Where are the boundaries of its friendship with Russia

However, this was clearly not enough to keep Serbia in the orbit of Russian influence.

Even in Serbia itself, little is known about the fact that the country already has a real military base. And we are not talking about a "humanitarian" Russian Center in a niche. And about the US military Center in the south of the country in the city of Bujanowac, where the training center is located (by the way, very close to the NATO bondstil base in Kosovo).

In it, Serbian soldiers and officers are trained according to NATO standards and are trained to work with Western weapons, which are increasingly in the army. And the maneuvers of the Serbian army with NATO armies exceed the number conducted with the Russians.

Russia was increasingly losing its influence in the region-political, economic, military, humanitarian, and the movement of the Balkan states to the European Union and NATO led to the fact that this process became inevitable.

But since 2014, the Russian Federation has had a new chance to "turn" the situation in the Balkans in its favor.

The annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Ukraine created the illusion for Serbia of the possibility of a new revision of borders in the Balkans as well.

And here Russia strongly supported such actions of its Serbian partner, pushing Belgrade to start an arms race.

In 2016, an agreement on military-technical cooperation between the two countries was signed.

According to the agreement, the Serbian Army received 90 armored vehicles, six MiG-29 aircraft, and an S-300 missile system.

All this was not the first freshness and required a deep modernization, quite expensive. Aircraft repairs, for example, cost Serbia almost.200 million.

Military exercises of the two armies became more frequent, and their commands developed plans for various joint military operations, which also provided for the participation of the Russian military contingent.

The large-scale rearmament of Serbia did not go unnoticed by such arms sellers as the United States, the European Union and China. As a result, in 2021, the country spent 1.38 billion euros on the purchase of weapons and military equipment, which is equal to the total amount of military spending in 2016-2020! 287 agreements were concluded with arms suppliers from 31 countries.

Unfortunately, Russia is still the main supplier of weapons to Serbia and must provide its maintenance, which requires the creation of service facilities. And their creation is another step towards the appearance of a military base.

The statement of the Russian ambassador regarding the creation of a Russian base did not appear by chance. It had to solve several tasks-political and purely military.

The opening of the base would create favorable conditions for strengthening Russian intelligence activities in the region, collecting military information, and controlling air and sea space (modern technology provides such an opportunity for a landlocked country).

Serbia, which is surrounded on almost all sides by NATO member countries, would have excellent opportunities to perform intelligence functions, so to speak, almost from within NATO. And every military base needs protection, that is, a Russian military unit.

The main political task of the base was to prevent Serbia's entry into the European Union.

Moreover, a Russian military base could push Serbia to launch a military operation to "protect Serbian peace" in Kosovo on the Russian model.

And such plans were prepared jointly with the Russians. Yes, and there are" powerful " allies – police units of Republika Srpska and its local paravian groups.

The base will certainly turn into a constant factor of destabilization of the region – Russian saboteurs and murderers will not be out of work!

The threat of military conflicts will increase significantly, as will the attempts of individual countries to "complete the division" in the region and review the existing borders.

The Russian statement on the base is a blatant pressure on Vucic, an attempt to Prevent support for anti – Russian sanctions, which is one of the important requirements of European integration.

The problem of choice – either the path to the European Union, or the Russian base, which is dragging on yesterday – is increasingly beginning to put pressure on the Serbian President.

The creation of a Russian base will undermine Serbia's image as the region's leader and lead to isolation from its neighbors who are already members of NATO.

And finally, the very timing of the statement shows its provocative nature – there is a complex process of forming a government after the April elections this year, the country remains without a government for more than four months. And the theme of the database can negatively affect this process.

The vast majority of military experts confidently say: this is impossible. After all, the country is surrounded by NATO countries, which means that it is impossible to solve a number of logistical issues. How to deliver military personnel and equipment to Serbia? How to ensure a constant supply of everything necessary for the functioning of the base?

Recall that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was never able to reach Belgrade – Russia did not find the strength to overcome the ban on flying even a civilian plane. What can we say about the military?

So from the point of view of logistics alone, creating a database seems like a somewhat stupid idea. And provocative, as mentioned above.

President Vucic found himself in a difficult situation. To the pile of existing problems – economic, energy, government formation, Western pressure on anti – Russian sanctions-suddenly "friends" – the Russians threw another one-they wanted a military base in Serbia.

Apparently, this was one of the reasons that in an interview with Euronews on August 11, Vucic clearly stated: Serbia does not need anyone's military bases, the country remains neutral as long as he remains the Supreme Commander, that is, the president.

However, it is still an open question whether the Russian Federation will accept this refusal.

Or vice versa, all its forces will be thrown at achieving this goal and all agents of influence will be involved (and the Russians have a lot of them in Serbia).

“...following Russia’s failed attempt in Ukraine”

Stopped reading there. Probably better to delete the OBVIOUS LIES before posting if you want us anti-Neocons to read the articles.

While the above quote could still come true - no one can conclude that at this point, or the opposite of it, for that matter.

“Never going to happen.”
Probable, lil’ Putin needs to just saber-rattle.
Sure hope your right! Although according to the article “the fight for a Russian military base is quite old. The Kremlin has long dreamed of getting a military base, and talks about this began back in 2007.”

How would Russia be able to get access to such a base? Between Russia and Serbia are Ukraine, its enemy, Moldova, and the NATO countries Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. The only passage to Serbia through non-NATO territory would be from the Adriatic Sea through Bosnia—and that would be problematic, since Bosnia’s coastline is only 12 miles long and its only coastal town is Neum, which is not a seaport.

“How would Russia be able to get access to such a base?”

Obviously, invasion is not a detraction for Li’ Putin.
I hope he is just spouting off in a “I control the world” rants!

Do you think the retreat from Nikolaev, Kiev, Snake Island, etc. are really just ‘goodwill gestures’ from the Russians, and not signs of their failure to achieve their objectives?

Do you remember in 2014 when Putin told the Spanish PM he could take Kiev in ‘two weeks’ if he wanted to? Do you think he just doesn’t want to, or that he actually can’t?

The Bosnian coastline is a lot shorter than 12 miles. The Peljesac bridge just opened this summer (allowing vehicles to avoid having to go through Neum and cross two international borders)--I don't know how the bridge might affect ships trying to get to Neum.

Bosnia used to have another bit of coast at Herceg Novi, near the entrance to the Bay of Kotor, but Tito gave Herceg Novi and the entire Bay of Kotor area to Montenegro. In earlier times Neum and Herceg Novi were part of Ottoman Bosnia and Hercegovina because the Republic of Ragusa (Dubrovnik) did not want a land frontier with Venetian territory. The Bay of Kotor was part of Venetian Dalmatia. Herceg Novi is pretty small so I don't know if it would have been of much use as a port--but it's in a mostly-Orthodox area. I think the part of Bosnia near Neum is mostly populated by Bosnian Croats who may not be particularly pro-Russian.

Do you think the retreat from Nikolaev, Kiev, Snake Island, etc. are really just ‘goodwill gestures’ from the Russians, and not signs of their failure to achieve their objectives?

Not familiar with Nikolaev, probably wasn’t paying attention.

Kiev was to try to get a quick settlement to the war, so that Ukraine wouldn’t have to get dismembered. Zelensky wanted that but the UK and US told him “no way”. So on to Plan B, which was to tie up half of the Ukraine military around Kiev, while the Russians got positioned in Donbass and got their supply lines working - otherwise Ukraine would have rolled over them there. So Plan B worked. Despite what the Daily Mail claims, there was never a Plan C to take Kiev by force with 30,000 troops.

“Do you remember in 2014 when Putin told the Spanish PM he could take Kiev in ‘two weeks’ if he wanted to? Do you think he just doesn’t want to, or that he actually can’t?”

Probably closer to 1 week if he actually went to war against Ukraine, rather than this very limited Special Military Operation.

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