Posted on 11/01/2022 9:46:06 PM PDT by Cathi
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Has the Colonel handicapped the election?
This guy’s predictions rival “Dewey Beats Truman.”
Don’t bet the farm on anything he says.
Explain to me, Sir, what exactly is the rush for Russia to make headway? Who exactly is making such assertions or demanding such results?
Ukraine is the chess board, not the game.
Russia has and will continue its strategy of measured response/escalation both against Ukraine and US/UK/NATO moves.
Nash’s Equilibrium and Dominance in Game Theory.
There is no rush to do anything and the people of the regions of Donbass acknowledge and know this.
Given what is occurring with Ukraine and its many, many issues, as I have briefly indicated above in another post, there is no rush when one can just sit back, let the enemy headlong crash into a wall, die and retreat while losing manpower and military hardware Ukraine can not afford to lose.
Ukraine is failing.
Ukraine has pretty much shot its bolt.
Russia is building up and just getting started.
One thing that needs scrutiny is, exactly how many people from Donbas wanted what Pushilin wanted.
For three years the only CLAIMS - not a shred of evidence, just empty accusations - of persecution from Kyiv have been those made by the Russia-backed paramilitary leadership of the LDNR.
The one agency Russia had in LDNR (operating out of the FSB building in Donetsk) that is forensically monitoring the reality actually agrees with the United Nations that there was perhaps a bus worth of civilians dying annually as a result of ongoing shooting between LDNR militants and Ukronazis violating an otherwise stable armistice.
Basically, the FSB, the UN, the European monitors, and Ukraine, all said it was a localised turf war between rival paramilitary groups that don’t represent any government or plebiscite.
Pushilin’s office came about because a couple of hundred guys in his paramilitary group supported his leadership. He’s never won an election. The DNR declaration several years ago didn’t even canvass the views of 1000 people. Pushilin’s fake government has no legitimacy and no popular mandate.
I’ve met dozens of families that fled to the UK from Donetsk. They’re all Russian speakers, with Russian families. And they’re not Zelenskyy fans. Despite all that, they aren’t here to escape the Nazis. They’re here to escape Pushilin’s thugs and the Russians who’ve flattened their towns.
They’re integrating into communities of ukrainians, Poles and Lithuanians, that have welcomed Russian speaking Ukrainian people fleeing the war.
If Pushilin and co had overwhelming majority support from the very people they claim to represent, we’d have seen some evidence of it between 2018 and February 2022. But there’s no evidence of it at all.
I strongly believe that treating the Pushilin led Donetsk People’s Republic like it genuinely represents the will of the people is a bit like saying the Continuity IRA and Real IRA militants represent mainstream Catholic opinion in Northern Ireland.
Like Ukraine, northern Ireland has its separatists... Catholic republicans. But there are legitimate political parties representing that community. We don’t assume that the hardcore Mafia-like terrorists represent mainstream opinion in Northern Ireland when the evidence for that is nonexistent, so why assume they do in Ukraine?
Read the article linked here. It does an EXCELLENT job in explaining Russia’s battle strategy up to now and why it is likely to dramatically change. Also keep in mind that Putin’s initial objective was not to annex anything nor to stay in Ukraine. He did not bring a force capable of those things which is why the “partial mobilization” became necessary and the offensive that was begun two days ago with the initial new troops is already making a big difference.
I found it fascinating to learn that due to the way Russia generates forces during peacetime they could not use generally accepted formations. They developed a unique temporary set up (heavy on the artillery fire, etc. which created enormous enemy casualties) but lacked the ability (infantry) to cover long battle fronts.
The mobilization has allowed them to now operate in traditional regiments/brigades. Really interesting and will give you a totally revised opinion about what you have been seeing.
Sound and Fury - Big Serge Thoughts
Big Serge Thoughts ^ | October 28, 2022 | Big Serge
Posted on 11/1/2022, 1:35:32 PM by Cathi
What we have seen from Russia so far is entirely predictable given the type of force it generated at the beginning of the war. There has been a strong preoccupation with conserving infantry, because this is the arm that the BTG is most lacking. A unit that is overweight on ranged fires and low on infantry is not going to try to defend a tricky forward line - it’s going to pull back and impose a cost on the enemy with its fires.
Russia is in the process of a large mobilization drive which will radically alter the force deployment and organization scheme. The BTG is likely to disappear from the battlefield entirely, with mobilized personnel empowering a shift back to the parent formations (brigades and regiments) that do not have the infantry shortages that proved problematic for the BTG.
The Battalion Tactical Group was a novel attempt to solve a tricky force generation problem, which allowed Russia to keep potent combined arms formations in a ready state. They are high firepower units that proved capable of dishing out horrific punishment - but they are (and always were) temporary derivatives that are simply not designed for a war of attrition or manning a wide front. With mobilization underway, it seems that the time of the BTG has come to a close.
(Excerpt) Read more at bigserge.substack.com ...
Fire Burns for undermining the narrative. It’s Biden and Fettermn who are fit as a fiddle. Putin is sick in mind and sick in body. It’s the talking point right after our dancing queen is the modern day Churchill.
Yep,
Putards have been saying Ukraine is finished since March.
So why hasnt Russia finished the war yet? Why havent they taken the entire coast as was predicted months ago?
Wasnt the entire ukrainian army cut off and surronded back in April? What gives?
Why is Ukraine sitting on supposed new Russian territory?
MCgregor said The war would be over in 72 hrs so thats all you need to know about his credibility
“Also keep in mind that Putin’s initial objective was not to annex anything nor to stay in Ukraine.”
LOL! thats rich! T
“Russia is building up and just getting started.”
Yeah heard that before...
~General Smedley Butler
Please see 34.
See 34.
One strategic aim of Putin, is to unite as many countries, political regions, and non-government organizations, into an economic axis opposed specifically against the USA.
Putin is having success, because of the combined years of Clinton, then Bush, then Obama overlordships applying “diplomatic” force: throwing their weight around. Such that, the damages overseas, now add up to advantage Russia.
Meanwhile in September, cutting the Nord Stream pipelines - as in making the pipelines difficult to function - removes these particular gas supply lines from a bargaining [poker] table, advantage Russia: “We cannot supply you with gas via those pipelines, by simply turning on a valve. Blame your case of the chills, on ‘the west (UK, USA)’.”
Is a possible explanation.
Wow! Putins Three Day War is getting costly after 8 months:
“BURN RATE: On 30 OCT, Russia suffered 950 troops killed in action, its largest single daily combat loss since WW II. Today, 31 OCT, further 620 RU invaders were KIA. Russian losses now total more than 71,820 dead since the start of Putin’s Special Military Operation on 24 FEB.”
Ru frontal assaults against UKr positions near Bahhmut did not go well:
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1587579317827125249?s=20&t=MJEyPJbCPgaDhMx93GzVKg
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