Either an 8-ball...or a dime bag.
Posted on 02/07/2024 3:30:04 PM PST by SteveH
i am trying to get a feel for the USA economy and USA stocks through to nov-dec 2024.
what is the best prognosis? and why?
what is the worst prognosis? and why?
allow me to take a swag at both.
the best would be that QE is re-instituted or continued. this however gets into the definition of "best." best in the longer term would involve reducing welfare which we all know is difficult to touch politically. i think we can do at least one more year of federal funding through issuing more debt although the current US govt bonds are near junk in absolute terms imho.
the worst (barring ww iii or civil war ii) would be the invention of some catastrophe such disease X or some manufactured quasi-political crisis along the lines of 9/11 which would trigger massive fascist government expansion and suspension of individual rights, a la lincoln with the suspension of habeus corpus and martial law during the first civil war. this could arise somewhat benignly through massive vote cheating or the suspension of the nov. 2024 election.
speaking of civil unrest and government reaction, if the nov. 2024 election is suspended, biden seems too shaky to lead a hobbled government. ditto for harris. so, who would take over and (more importantly) how?
Depends on the results of the election.
Buy a quality 8-Ball.
relevant to this topic, the nasdaq went from 5000 to 3000 in mar-nov 2001, reflective of the bursting of the dot com bubble. can it happen again in 2024?
Sell off stocks over $100, & move that money into lower end stocks in the supply chain.(Preferably $40 & under)
If anything like QE happens and rates stay high or go higher, the deficit will become explosive and will need to be dealt with. But how that is done could bring the country to its knees - either crippling taxation, or real cutbacks in the massive amount of plunder that is shifted from working Americans to the welfare class each year.
Went to the grocery store yesterday and today. Prices still way up. Gas was $2.75 yesterday and jumped to $2.99 today (no reason I’ve heard).
Powell and Biden will not allow for a recession in an election year. They will pump everything up. Stocks will be high until November.
Then sell before election day. If Biden wins they will allow for a small recession, if Trump wins they will allow the economy to implode.
Gas was 2.85 here Western Michigan this am and jumping to 3.18 this afternoon. Filled ahead of it.
Is it a formulation changeover or something? Or, just because?
I can cut down on driving, but can not cut down on eating. Grocery prices at Walmart superstore are so much higher than just last year.
“Buy a quality 8-Ball.”
I have an Acme 8-ball and it says “Yer fooked laddie”
My daughter got me a Trump Magic 8 Ball for Christmas. It’s awesome…and Trump is usually right, lol.
High fuel prices are the reason for high food prices
“https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07DFRRCRP?tag=bravesoftwa04-20&linkCode=osi&th=1&psc=1&language=en_US“?
Yugely/Bigly funny...
Either an 8-ball...or a dime bag.
You hung out with Belushi?
I wish LOL.
The problem is that the wonderful jobs news is anything but wonderful. There are adjustment to past values that don't make sense. Total hours worked is going down (i.e. part time work instead of full time jobs) and wagers for the new jobs are not family level wages. On top of that, you have credit card debt at an all time high. And inflation of important things like medical costs, fuel and food is constantly going up.
That means that voters will likely kick out a lot of incumbents, and hopefully slow-Joe.
Now as to the stock market; as bad as the US economy may look long term, almost every other major economy is so much worse. That means that if you have retirement savings and live in Greece, Turkey, Argentina, China, France, Germany, or a host of other countries, you are going to want to have a diversified portfolio with lots of Wall Street stocks. That foreign demand will keep the S&P 500 from collapsing.
As to the election, I think that the Democratic Party has advanced “lawfare” to an art form. The election (House, Senate and Presidency) will be tied up in lawsuits until February or March of 2025. I could see the Speaker of the House of Representatives being appointed as an interim President until early next year.
hmmm aaa hmmm aaa...
(yikes)
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