ENDGAME---My Perception of the "Plan"

Over the past week there have been numerous television generals and armchair pundits pontificating as if they knew "the Plan" and how this war was to unfold. They have generally (no pun intended) argued that

and we have a house-to-house Mogadishu-type fight awaiting us in Baghdad (B-city).

Possibly in between, we have to face chem weapons. One military type on (I think) PMSNBC last night said that "we are running out of time," and that we "might not have time" to bring the 4th ID up for "political reasons" and he "worries that we will do something" stupid militarily for political reasons. Get it? If we wait, it proves our incompetence, and if we act with audacity, it is militarily stupid action taken for political reasons.

What follows is TOTALLY from open sources. I have NO inside military information. As to the "what if the Iraqis read it?" I am convinced that Saddam is the arrogant one here, not Rumsfeld. EVEN if he understood this plan, he would not believe it could work. Remember, he has "his" plan too, and the western media is telling him "it is working." After all, the PMSNBC officer just confirmed it!

I think an altogether different scenario is emerging, one that virtually NO ONE has addressed.

1) 3ID is indeed resting. The men are worn out. Saddam isn't going anywhere. They are, according to reports SOMEWHAT short of food, but NOTHING ELSE. My guess is that they need sleep more than anything.

2) I Marine Ex. Force is going to slice eastward, cutting the battle zone in half. But the more important thing that is happening here is that both 3ID and I MAE (as well as the Brits, but they have other missions) are fixing the RG units in place SOUTH of Baghdad. See this quotation from today's AP report, that Saddam has his "military equipment in a residential neighbourhood south of the Iraqi capital" Good. That is exactly where we want them.

3) Last night on FOX, one of the excellent military guys they had pointed out that the AIR campaign will not be directed at Baghdad, but at areas BEHIND the RG units to the south, to keep them from reinforcing B-city. In fact, he said, these rolling bombardments would drive them forward. (Get it? To the west and south, into the "kill boxes" where our "pausing" troops have set up shop?)

4) This is the kicker. This is where Patton said we would hold them by the nose and kick them in the ass. The AS-YET COMPLETELY PHANTOM II Marine Expeditionary Force [11,000 men at least] which left Jordan weeks ago from the western deserts is not mentioned in any media accounts. Hmmmmm. Where are they. Moreover, the 101 AB has been flying in massive supplies to H-1, H-2, and H-3. These supplies are NOT going to 3ID. Wonder where they are going?

While the RG is pinned in the south, getting steadily driven onto the "bayonets" of the dug-in American positions, the Kurds seize the oil and key bases in the northeast. That leaves a huge gap in the enemy's defenses around B-city. . . . to the northwest.

I think we will see in the next few days a "phantom" army come out of the desert, just as Lawrence of Arabia did in WW I, to take B-city from the lightly defended northwest.

SPECIAL FORCES are already inside B-city; today's news carries reports of "insurrections" [!} in B-city. The special ops guys are "shaping the battlefield," paving the way, marking the friendly neighborhoods where II MAE can come. Oh, and in the process, they will seize that airfield to the northwest and be able to reinforce pretty quickly.

Much was made of the 101 "guarding the supply lines" for the 3 ID. Do you really think we are using crack airborne troops to watch trucks roll by when there is an open airfield in b-city?

The final collapse will come when a combination of insurrections, American obliteration of the RG outside B-city to the south, and II MAE liberation of B-city to the north push Saddam deep into his bunkers. We only need to capture one. As I understand, they are LINKED by tunnels.

Oh, and chem weapons? The bombing from behind will take these out at the source. Iraqi troops then would risk using them and being driven (literally, running) into enemy fire in front of them while still struggling with these suits, or not using the weapons.

Much was made of the 101 "guarding the supply lines" for the 3 ID. Do you really think we are using crack airborne troops to watch trucks roll by when there is an open airfield in b-city?

Yes, I'm sure we are using some troops from the 101st to help guard those supply lines. That is a very important mission as the 3rd ID prepares to engage the Republican Guard. However, they aren't staying stationary " watching trucks roll by". They are patrolling the supply routes in their Blackhawks, ready to quickly respond to any attacks. I'm sure as more troops from the 4th ID and other units the make it to Iraq the 101st will be relieved of this responsibility.

As for the airfield in B-city, that sounds like a mission for the Rangers. We haven't heard much about the Rangers, but I think all three Ranger Bat's are out West someplace and we should be hearing from them when the time comes to take Baghdad.

hello LS,

a thoughtful and intelligent assessment, which I agree with. My comments/additions follow:

The main reason I agree with your analysis; it reflects the flexibility that our Armed Forces have. This flexibility is based on many things (in no specific order of importance); our battle doctrine and training, military intelligence, dominance of the air and of the C3 theaters, and the tremendous moral imperative that we have to rid the world of such a brutal regime AND to eradicate any current or potential WMD within Iraq. The last factor - remove the regime to liberate those poor souls, then remove the WMD threat - I do(!) place in order of precedence... by far, the most important goal for the United States and the Coalition should be to completely destroy Saddam and any and ALL military/paramilitary/fedayeen personnel that have been used against their own people.

I also appreciate that a fellow citizen can understand the flexibility issue, which is more than I can say for our media (can you believe those CENTCOM briefings??? the press there are asking what I call "guided missile" questions... the wording, the tactical positioning of the questions, the noticeable lack of questions exploring the successes of the campaign-to-date; all focus or infer that we are somehow failing at this mission).

History and experience teaches us that despite the training a military force undergoes, the terrible truth is that War is a lesson that must be relearned by each generation. This is just as true on the national as well as the personal level. (In this context...) the beginning of a war is always marked by a certain measure of alarm and naivete, of a lack of battle-hardening, among the troops, the public and the press.

But history also shows that the naivete quickly dissipates both in the national consciousness and in the combat experience of the troops on the frontline. In short, the shrill voices of the Helen Thomases and Hillary Clintons of the world are soon drowned out and made irrelevant by the Ernie Pyles that arise from within such times as these. I think it's already starting to happen.

Speaking of Ernie Pyle... in WWII he was what we call today, an "embedded" journalist - and we remember Ernie today as a journalist who was able to effectively bridge the gap between the soldier's lot on the frontlines and world's understanding of it. Those 500 or so embedded journalists currently on the front lines with our fellow Americans and our Allies are (imho) the beginning of the end for the leftist, anti-American media. I would say they are the Dan Rather's of tomorrow, but that would be holding them to a shallow standard. These young Turks will in time become the leaders of their profession, though... and what will seperate them from the Rather's and Brokaws will be the first-hand experience they're getting in seeing our noble Sons and Daughters fight.

Again, thanks for your analysis. God Bless America.

Juan Rosario, Lieutenant(jg), United States Coast Guard(ret)

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