I think Northup has as safe a hold on the seat now as Romano Mazzoli used to. The question still begs, what is in it for Chris Gorman ? With all this talk about Sen. Bunning possibly resigning after the election and Rep. Northup being a strong choice for succeeding the Senator, perhaps Gorman is counting on her vacating the seat and appealing as a "moderate" for a special election (though he is doing himself no favors with his own party).
Kentucky 2nd amendment folks are somewhat fed up with her weak votes on the issue.
She could be taken out very easily by a conservative southern Democrat.