Wyoming GOP Congresswoman Cubin Wins GOP Primary with 60% Over Political Newcomer Winney

Human Events ^ | August 23, 2006

[Clintonfatigued]

Wyoming Republican Congresswoman Barbara Cubin has won a substantial but not overwhelming victory over her primary challenger Bill Winney, a retired Navy officer, for the state’s only U.S. House seat. Cubin is leading 42,908 – 60% to Winney's 28,274 – 40% with 91% of the precincts reporting. Cubin lost only two of Wyoming’s 23 counties, Laramie (Cheyenne - the state capital) and Teton (the wealthy ski resort of Jackson Hole) which was the only Wyoming county to support John Kerry.

[Clintonfatigued]

When an unknown challenger who hasn't lived in the vicinity for very long and spent very little campaign money polls 40% in the primary against a 10-year incumbent, it's a sign of serious weaknss on the incumbent's part.

If I were a DemocRAT, I would target this race.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I've never understood Barbara Cubin's weakness in Wyoming, though it's not exactly a state that receives media coverage. I had hoped that if and when either Senator Thomas or Senator Enzi steps down, she would succeed them, but with her weakening performances, I'm thinking this should be her final term in the House. Surely there are some stronger Republicans in Wyoming that could hold this seat without a sweat. Not since the late Congressman Teno Roncalio in 1976 has a Democrat won a federal office in Wyoming, and that record of being Democrat-free needs to continue for many years to come.

[Clintonfatigued]

In Wyoming, Barbara Cubin is widely perceived as being an ineffective gadfly who has accomplished very little. Her attendance record has come under criticism a number of times. The fact that she didn't run for an open U.S. Senate seat in 1996 was an indication of political weakness (historically, At-Large Congress members in Wyoming always run for the Senate sooner or later).

[fieldmarshaldj]

It would not have been smart for her to run for the Senate after only a single term in the House, since when two other former members attempted that, they both lost (Teno Roncalio in 1966, John Wold in 1970 -- even William Henry Harrison, IV, ran in 1954 after 2 terms and lost). Usually a minimum of 3 terms would be the prerequisite in Wyoming for the House member.

[DallasJ7]

Yep, Cubin may be in trouble. There's that Rasmussen poll showing her up only 4 against Trauner (47-43), and Trauner has remained competitive as far as fundraising goes. Also the Dem governor Freudenthal will likely win big, which could have coattails. Still, Trauner has to overcome that massive party registration disadvantage. Time will tell if Cubin can pull away or not.

[Clintonfatigued]

There were two others who did run and succeed. Frank Barrett in 1952 and Keith Thompson in 1960.

I see little point in running At-Large every two years to be one of 435 when one can do the same thing every six years and being one of 100 with rules that give him far more leverage.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Actually, the 3-term minimum was my reference to Keith Thomson, who died right before he took office, along with Craig Thomas, whom also served 3 terms before jumping to the Senate in 1994. In the case of Frank Barrett, he served 4 terms and was elected Governor, and resigned to run for the Senate, so he didn't go directly from the House.

Discounting Thomson, only 3 Congressman in Wyoming history successfully made the leap to the Senate, and only 2 of them directly from the House, that being Thomas and Clarence Clark, exactly 100 years earlier in 1894. You can see why Cubin, and any sitting WY House member, might be apprehensive regarding the odds, despite it seemingly not being much of a jump. The political corpses of Congressmen trying to leap to the Senate from Wyoming litter the landscape !

Of the 9 Senators elected since 1954, 3 were prior Governors (Milward Simpson, John Hickey, Cliff Hansen), 2 were sitting state legislators (Malcolm Wallop, Mike Enzi), 1 was a former legislator (Alan Simpson, son of Milward), 1 was a former assistant U.S. Postmaster General (Joseph O'Mahoney), 1 was a former legislative assistant whom had never held ANY other office (!) (Gale McGee, the last Dem Senator elected in 1970), and just 1 a sitting Congressman (Thomas).

[colorado tanker]

Cubin always looks weak, but so far she's always pulled it out. I wouldn't bet against her.

[MassachusettsGOP]

I wonder if this Bill Winney will try again in 2008. He got 40% without trying, and I wouldn't mind our Congress having a bunch of Veteran average Joes.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Yep, Cubin may be in trouble. There's that Rasmussen poll showing her up only 4 against Trauner (47-43), and Trauner has remained competitive as far as fundraising goes. Also the Dem governor Freudenthal will likely win big, which could have coattails."

---

President Bush got what, 70% in Wyoming in 2004? And Wyoming voters are far less likely to vote for a Democrat for federal office than state office---in any event, Craig Thomas's coattails may be larger than Freudenthal's. I hope the Democrats throw a lot of money into this race in the hopes of pulling off a 1 in 100 chance of an upset that would yield them a seat that they would cough back up in 2008. But I agree that if Cubin wins with less than 55% again that she should not seek reelection in 2008.

[MNJohnnie]

So now the Buchannite Right has adopted the Democrat mantra that when they lose a race by 20% "It shows the weakness of the incumbent?

[new yorker 77]

The home of Dick Cheney will not place a 'RAT' in this seat.

[Clintonfatigued]

Barbara Cubin was challenged by an unknown who spent virtually no money, while she has represented the district for 10 years. Yet 40% or Republican primary voters opposed her.

That does not show political strength.

[NeoCaveman]

Thanks for your paranoid drive by analysis of other posters.