Posted on 06/23/2007 11:26:31 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Dubuque may have Catholics but they vote Democrat. They have sent some very liberal people to the legislature.
The political climate is more polarized than it was during the 1970’s, when there was a lot more ticket splitting.
Well, it’s all prognosticating at this point. All bets are off if shamnesty goes through. We shall know the outcome in less than 16 1/2 months.
It’s hard to know how the Sham will play out. We could see the defeat of a significant number of Rat incumbents who voted for it, but in that case, a significant number of Republicans might lose too — to Rats who would still have voted for the POS.
I think that’s true, but the Rats are also more ruthless than they were in the ‘70s. Today, they’re simply thugs.
They’ll stop at nothing. In addition, the American public is, if anything, more liberal than it was in the ‘70s.
A potentially significant impact against both parties if the bill passes, which would work out to a wash. If it doesn’t pass, it hurts only the GOP.
{ghastly approval rating of 14% for Congress) should not put the House out of reach)}
Also according to Rasmussen Reports, Pelosi’s approval ratings are at 39%, down from the high 40s.
However despite the downtrend for the RATS, there has no uptrend for the GOP. Iraqi has turned off Indies to the GOP. Plus, conservatives are demoralized by the push for Amnesty. 2008 is shaping up to be the Year of Conservative Voter Suppression, especially if Giulinai is the nominee and the Amnesty bill passes.
Oh, it’ll be a total slaughter for us if Rudy is the nominee. It may still be even if it’s Fred if this mess continues. :-(
I think we will pick up Jim Ryun’s old seat in Ks as well.
Great list!!!
Thanks
I agree there’s a good chance of it. Who is running at this point? The candidate is almost always crucial.
Sure thing. ;-)
2 are running, Jim Ryun, the former incumbent, and Lynn Jenkins, the state Treasurer. Unfortunately, the Establishment wants Jenkins, and she is a pro-abort RINO. This is not a liberal seat, and there’s no need to run someone that dreadful. I have concerns about Ryun winning it back. I’d prefer a 3rd candidate that is a strong Conservative, minus Ryun’s baggage.
What is Ryun’s baggage?
If it’s not too bad, this race sounds like a natural for the Club for Growth (and FReepers).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Ryun
This touches a bit on it (look under “controversies.”). Of course, the DeLay stuff to me is ridiculous. The sitting majority leader giving money to House members is not controversial in the least — except to liberal rodent DeLay haters. I could go on Wiki and write “Controversy — Steny Hoyer gave money to (fill in the blank) !” It’s just stupid.
The Foley thing was something he had no control over, and obviously would want to distance himself from him (of course, saying he didn’t know the guy would be correct in a way — since he didn’t know of Foley’s proclivities or Ryun would never have messed with him).
Now, the most damning problem was the situation with the purchase of the house. That just looked bad, and I think that was the straw that put Nancy Boyda in office. Ryun’s a good man, but after 10 years in DC, even good men can start having lapses in good judgment.
It’s a shame that our people can’t stay 100 percent above suspicion. At the same time, we have to know when people who are perhaps less than perfect are worth standing by and when they’re not. The problem is particularly difficult when we’re picking a challenger rather than weighing the value of an incumbent. I don’t know what the answer is. If Ryun runs, the primary election process (and result) may provide us with the right result. Or it may not.
Once you’re in public life, it’s impossible to stay “above suspicion” or free from allegations. Once one runs for and/or elected to office, they will instantly earn the suspicion or disapproval of those of the opposite party (and sometimes those of the same). In an “evenly-balanced” Congressional district, for example, you almost tend to start off with 1/3rd of the electorate immediately disapproving of you, no matter what you do. Some in office care about that, some don’t give a damn (the latter for a myriad of reasons — some due to simple arrogance of power, the rest due to acceptance of the above and simply pushing forward trying to do the right thing).
Because our party has been identified with those of the more morally upstanding kind, we are held to a substantially higher standard. But conversely, the Democrats aren’t really held to any standard at all (until they start voting more with us, and then it’s open season — look at Lieberman, votes wrong maybe 90% of the time, but because as an observant Orthodox Jew, he “gets” WOT and supports it — he will be viciously attacked).
Jim Ryun was probably one of the most vocal religious Conservatives in Congress (for example, when he signs autographs, and I have an autographed photo from him, he always puts a biblical quote on it — I can’t recall many others that do that), and tends to abide by that privately. I think it is quite true that when people of strict moral standards get to DC (or even Hollywood, for that matter), you start feeling the corrupting influence right away.
I remember just participating in an online political government sim, that after just a few days as a “virtual Senator”, the backroom wheeling and dealing, selling of votes, threats and the like is truly sickening. We were trying to pass this particular bill, and “leadership” asked me to approach this self-styled moralizing “Conservative Democrat.” After talking to him for a bit, he effectively offered to sell me his vote, which I agreed (on behalf of leadership) to “acquire.” I told leadership it was one of the most disgusting, unprincipled scenes I had ever witnessed, and said I felt like I needed a shower afterwards. Later on, I learned this guy came from a political family in WV and had numerous times to try to run for office for real (and he’s still trying). A very disturbed young man named Drew Pritt (his cousin, Charlotte, was the Dem nominee for Governor of WV in ‘96, and was considered so self-serving and divisive, in other words, she’d knife her granny in the back to win high office if she had to, that many Dems endorsed her GOP opponent, and we won that office as a result). You ever see his name pop up from time to time, as I do, it just sends a chill up my back. Lord help us if this guy ever wins public office.
Well, anyway, I think you get the picture. But, yes, we should try to have our people stay above suspicion, but just the act of being in politics makes doing so nearly impossible. Whomever said “politics is a dirty business” knew precisely what they were talking about.
I understand. I didn’t mean completely above suspicion, whatever I said. I meant they should stay out of situations that are likely to become known, like the house situation.
Most of these districts are going to be impossible absent these members retiring. Folks like Bud Cramer, Allen Boyd, Leonard Boswell, Bart Stupak, Tim Holden, Darlene Hooley, Collin Petersen, ect. have been targetted before in very bad Rat years and continued to win.
A lot of the freshmen are going to be tough as well. About 20 or more of them were elected in districts that either voted for John Kerry in 2004 or came very close to doing so.
KS-02, PA-10, CA-11, FL-16, and TX-22 all have a good chance to go back but that is about it absent a strong wave in 2008.
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