The implication with uncomfortable would mean they’d vote them out, despite Dubya’s subpar performances in those districts.
It’s not just freshman we should be targeting, but other ‘Rat incumbents in 45%+ Bush districts. Why should we cede them without challenge ? They certainly haven’t with ours in solid GOP seats. If we dismiss so many out of hand, we don’t deserve to win back a majority.
Who do I think should be targeted in the House ? Here’s a list of 87 (!) potentials:
AL - Bud Cramer (he should switch parties)
AZ - Freshmen Harry Mitchell & Gabrielle Giffords (those are GOP districts)
AR - Vic Snyder (too liberal for his Little Rock seat)
CA - Jerry McNerney (toast)
CO - Udall Open Seat (difficult, but not impossible); John Salazar; Ed Perlmutter
CT - Freshmen Joe Courtney & Chris Murphy
FL - Allen Boyd (GOP district); freshmen Tim Mahoney & Ron Klein
GA - Jim Marshall & John Barrow
HI - Neil Abercrombie (targeted in the ‘90s, and still too moonbat for this seat)
IL - Melissa Bean and freshman Phil Hare
IN - Freshmen Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth & Baron Hill and ill moonbat Julia Carson
IA - Freshmen Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack; ailing Leonard Boswell
KS - Freshman Nancy Boyda; too-liberal Dennis Moore
KY - Moonbat freshman John Yarmuth
LA - Charlie Melancon
ME - Open Allen seat
MI - Bart Stupak (too liberal for the UP)
MN - Freshman Tim Walz; Collin Peterson (GOP district)
MS - Erratic Gene Taylor
MO - Ike Skelton (GOP district, in office too long)
NV - Shelley Berkley (formidable, but we did hold the seat in the ‘90s)
NH - Freshman ultramoonbat Carol Shea-Porter & Paul Hodes
NJ - Moonbat Rush Holt (this was still a GOP district until recently)
NY - Long Island’s rodent troika of Tim Bishop, Steve Israel and moonbat Carolyn McCarthy; moonbat freshman John Hall; Kirsten Gillibrand; Maurice Hinchey (formidable, but I think he should be targeted); Mike Arcuri & Brian Higgins
NC - Bob Etheridge & Mike McIntyre (both GOP districts); Heath Shuler; and Brad Miller’s seat (if he vacates it)
ND - Earl Pomeroy (this is STILL a Republican state)
OH - Freshmen Charlie Wilson (historically GOP district) and Zack Space
OK - Dan Boren (pressure him to switch parties)
OR - David Wu (an embarrassment); Peter DeFazio (that it still a competitive area with a strong candidate); Darlene Hooley (who has no business in that GOP seat)
PA - Freshman Jason Altmire (fluke win); Joe Sestak (moonbat embarrassment); Patrick Murphy; Chris Carney (fluke win); Paul Kanjorski (too liberal for a competitive seat); John Murtha (biggest embarrassment in PA); Tim Holden (GOP seat)
RI - Patrick Kennedy (quixotic, maybe, but the GOP held the seat before him)
SC - John Spratt (leadership, too liberal for GOP seat)
SD - Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (even if she doesn’t vacate)
TN - Lincoln Davis (pressure to switch parties); Bart Gordon (rapidly increasing GOP district); John Tanner (just plain needs to go)
TX - Chet Edwards (heavily GOP seat, too liberal); Nick Lampson (fluke win); Ciro Rodriguez (GOP district, fluke win)
UT - Jim Matheson (heavily GOP district)
VT - Peter Welch (still a freshman)
VA - Rick Boucher (chronically too liberal for previous GOP seat)
WA - Jay Inslee (prior GOP seat); Rick Larsen (ditto); Brian Baird & Adam Smith (tough, but they’ve not faced substantial challengers in a decade)
WV - Alan Mollohan (crook in GOP trending district); Nick Rahall (GOP trending district, in office 32 years)
WI - Ron Kind (prior GOP seat); Gwen Moore (formidable, but she is too liberal for this seat, and it’s not majority Black); Dave Obey (approaching 40 years in a historically GOP seat); Steve Kagen (fluke win)
I don’t believe in “ceding” anything “without challenge.” I believe in competing vigorously and aggressively in every district. But since we’re talking prognostication, I’m giving my honest view of the probabilities, which in my humble opinion, are not very promising. You’re right to this extent: We should be careful how often we make gloomy predictions. It’s important to keep spirits up. Actually, to raise them much higher than they are now in the GOP.
You’re right that we should make serious efforts in most, if not all, of these races.
You’re on drugs if you think we can possibly win more than a small fraction of them in ‘08. Rats won most of these seats under significantly worse (for them) circumstances in ‘02 and ‘04. And these incumbents are now more entrenched.
A few comments on the seats we have a better (or less-bad) chace of taking on this list:
Mitchell (AZ) — We need an anti-immigration candidate who also has the support of the fat cats and RINOs. A tall order.
McNerney (CA) — We seem to have a credible challenger, but he will be swimming against the presidential tide. A Republican presidential candidate can no longer win California, period. In addition, the Bay Area Rats, having no other seats to worry about, will focus like a laser on saving McNerney — just as they focused like a laser on defeating Pombo.
Ellsworth (IN) — Very Republican districts, but very Republican districts, unlike strong Rat districts, sometimes elect Rats. At the end of the day, many of what should be our base voters are less partisan than almost any of the Rats base. That’s how you get a Brad Ellsworth, or, to take a more obnoxious example, a Jon Tester from Montana. Ellsworth did have the advantage of running against a cranky incumbent who didn’t believe in raising money and relied completely on Christian activists. But he’s also a former sheriff and probably votes relatively conservative. Indiana does have voting machines with a straight-ticket option, so I’ll say yes, we have a chance to beat Ellsworth. But not a probability.
Hill (IN) — Most of the above applies. If Mike Sodrel, the previous incumbent, runs, he has a slight chance. I doubt anyone else does. Hill was the congressman for quite a while before Sodrel beat him in ‘04, thanks to straight-ticket voting in (what was) a strong Bush state.
Shea-Porter (NH) — Far-left, but NH has been moving left. There was a GOP meltdown there in ‘06 for serious (not momentary) reasons. No recovery in ‘08 unless I’m badly mistaken.
Hall (NY) — see NH analysis. Hall is flaky enough to be somewhat more endangered than most Rat freshmen, but I’d still call him the favorite.
Mollohan (WV) — well, maybe if he’s indicted or resigns or retires. Otherwise, I think the ‘06 result (Mollohan won easily despite the scandal) will be repeated. Suspected corruption is not a big liability in WV.
Great list!!!
Thanks
Most of these districts are going to be impossible absent these members retiring. Folks like Bud Cramer, Allen Boyd, Leonard Boswell, Bart Stupak, Tim Holden, Darlene Hooley, Collin Petersen, ect. have been targetted before in very bad Rat years and continued to win.
A lot of the freshmen are going to be tough as well. About 20 or more of them were elected in districts that either voted for John Kerry in 2004 or came very close to doing so.
KS-02, PA-10, CA-11, FL-16, and TX-22 all have a good chance to go back but that is about it absent a strong wave in 2008.