Posted on 01/16/2010 8:33:23 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The impulse was so obvious that Republicans in Massachusetts wondered what took Democrats so long to indulge it. Everyone knew that Vicki Kennedy, the widow of late Senator Ted Kennedy, would eventually make a public pitch for Martha Coakley as the true, legitimate heir to the “Kennedy seat.” What no one could have predicted is that it would backfire (via Jules Crittenden):
Big-name Kennedy endorsements for Martha Coakley appear to have been little help to the Democrat in the U.S. Senate race – and may have even hurt her with some voters, a new Suffolk University/7News poll shows. The late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s widow, Vicki, and nephew Joseph Kennedy II gave the attorney general their official blessing last week.
But of the 500 voters surveyed, only 20 percent said the Kennedy family nod made them more likely to vote for Coakley, and 27 percent said the endorsement made them less likely to support her. …
“For independents, it doesn’t appear to have a positive effect. In fact, it may have had a negative effect,” said David Paleologis, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
They apparently were looking for a little Change, and perhaps some Hope, too — that the voters could actually select their own Senator without the presumption that it was reserved for royalty, or the nobility’s hand-picked successors. Part of the problem may be the timing. Vicki Kennedy didn’t endorse anyone during the entire special-election cycle until two weeks before the election — and then only when Coakley began to look vulnerable. The whiff of desperation is not usually a political aphrodisiac, even in Massachusetts.
After last night’s big shocker in the Suffolk poll showing Brown up by four points, even with a Democratic sample of +24, Pajamas Media’s new poll in the state puts Brown up by … fifteen points?
A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.
This is the first poll to show Brown surging to such an extent. A poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center – published Thursday morning by the Boston Herald, but taken earlier – had Brown moving ahead by 4%. …
1. Thinking about next Tuesday’s special election for US Senate. The candidates are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. If the election were today, who would you vote for? If Scott Brown press 1, if Martha Coakley press 2. If you are undecided press 3. 1. Scott Brown 53.9% 2. Martha Coakley 38.5% 3. Undecided 7.6% Phone-IVR polls are a tricky business, and I’m not aware of the track record of CrossTarget. They have a partisan gap of +16 for Democrats, with 43% independents. That may seem a little low for Democrats in Massachusetts, but +24 is probably too high. Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008 by 26 points after getting an extraordinary turnout and much more Republican crossover than Coakley will have in this election. If I had to guess, I’d put the registration gap somewhere around +20 and Democrats at a higher percentage of the population than 36%, but put the turnout model closer to what CrossTarget shows in its poll.
The Washington Post is already setting up Coakley for the fall:
The seeds of the drama that could see the Senate seat held by the late Edward M. Kennedy slip to Republican control began to sprout during what is traditionally the quietest week on the political calendar.
“Things began to change the week between Christmas and New Year’s,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, a strategist for insurgent Republican Scott Brown. “That’s the week we put our JFK ad up.”
The commercial, which aired for only five days, depicted John F. Kennedy, the Democratic congressman who 58 years ago ran an insurgent campaign to capture the Republican-held “Cabot seat,” morphing into Brown, the obscure state senator who surveys suggest might do the same with what’s become known as the “Kennedy seat” when grumpy Massachusetts voters go to the polls on Tuesday.
But although the audacious spot was ripe for challenge — the tax breaks JFK trumpeted were the calibrated adjustments of a committed Keynesian, hardly a philosophy embraced by Brown — not a peep was heard from the campaign of Martha Coakley. Having won the Democratic primary by remaining the aloof front-runner, the state attorney general was not about to engage with a Republican whom the latest poll showed trailing her by 30 points.
“Not a bad strategy, by the way,” Fehrnstrom acknowledged. “But when the shift in voter mood and opinion takes place, and you fail to catch it, then it becomes a disaster. And I think that’s what happened with her. I think she did not sense the movement in what they should have known was a very volatile electorate.”
Get ready for the spin: Coakley was a bad candidate — it has nothing to do with national policy. You’ll be hearing that a lot if Brown wins on Tuesday, and it’s at least somewhat true. Coakley is a bad candidate. But even bad candidates win elections in Massachusetts, as John Kerry’s continued presence in the Senate demonstrates. There’s a lot more going on here than Coakley’s incompetence, and every Senate Democrat that has to vote on ObamaCare knows it.
If ObamaCare gets a Republican elected in Massachusetts, what does that mean for Democrats in Arkansas? Nebraska? Indiana? Pennsylvania? We may not need Brown as the 41st vote against cloture by the time the polls close on Tuesday night.
As I have been saying all week - If Brown wins, don’t be surprised if a couple of Senators suddenly decide they need to “listen to the people” and vote against ObamaCare.
This is interesting and fun, but don’t pop any champagne corks yet.
Dems are sneaky and ruthless. I predict massive vote fraud ala Franken.
Great!
The spin started two days ago at the White House press office..MSNBC. They have the “look”. Pathetic.
But, I thought he was a war hero in Vietnam or something... I dunno though... I don't think he really talks about it or brings it up.
Whatever the outcome, I believe the old timers who have voted KENNEDY for the last 50-60 years are being displaced. This election will mark the turning point.
You mean ACORN/SEIU/The New Black Panthers/Nation of Islam/AmeriCorps/MoveOn/DUmmies/HuffandPuffs, etc?
Yeah, he was a war hero alright, with that purple heart of his. He spilled his blood on foreign soil protecting us, dontcha know. Genghis Khan and all..
That Vicki Kennedy thing is what sent my Sister in law over to our side. She hates dirty politics and she HATES THE KENNEDY’s. She’s a moderate Dem and she’s voting for BROWN!!! YAY!
Kennedy has websites with jokes in his honor.
I agree, but keep in mind if you are a Dim from Nebraska, Louisiana, ect without the MA machine behind you, how would your feel about a 51-49 Coakley win???? That is part of the beauty of this.
Here’s the earful I faxed yesterday to my so-called “blue dog” representative. (My husband persuaded me to remove a couple of harsher sentiments.)(”Stand athwart history, yelling ‘Stop’” is William F. Buckley, as you know — I stole it.)
Dear Rep. Cooper,
Washington D.C. is a cloistered, incestuous place. It’s easy to lose one’s perspective in the thick political murk. Let me offer some vision from the clear, cool air back home:
If you vote for this Frankenstein’s Monster of a power and tax grab, festooning itself as health reform, your name will one day be mocked.
Your constituents will eventually despise you for docilely following your party leaders, for your failure to be an independent voice of reason, kindness and fiscal restraint. Tennessee will revile you for being weak in the face of your party and their special interests at the expense of a lesser class of people; the struggling, hard-working, responsible middle class.
For a glimpse of your future, should you decide not to stand athwart history and yell “Stop!,” read up on how Rep. Nelson was recently shouted down and berated by the diners in a Nebraska restaurant.
This legislation is fatally flawed. Its premise alone is a clunker and the insane rush for passage, cold partisanship, absence of debate, late-night skulking, back room deals, open bribes and the convolutions of logic to hide its base intent have created a heinously ugly threat to life and liberty.
It has also eliminated any trust that I and everyone I know had in the federal legislative process.
Please stand up and yell “STOP!”
Thank you,
Doesn't JF'nK SwiftBoat America each day?
I saw a comment a few years ago from some guy in Boston who said he didn't really care for Kennedy but he'd always vote for him. He said his mother had some kind of problem at one time that was only resolved when Teddy Kennedy used the power of his office to get it fixed. Probably some local government red-tape issue.
The voter said he appreciated it enough that he'd always repay that favor with his continued votes. That made sense to me.
Now that Kennedy is gone, those old favors aren't having to continue to be paid anymore and people can choose between two candidates again. It'll be interesting to see what the future holds.
I always suspect though that when we send letters like that to our dem senators or representatives it makes them laugh and laugh. Grrr
I doubt most of them ever see our heartfelt missives. But I feel better having sent them.
Three purple hearts. And it's not known that he spilled any blood or missed any duty time with his "wounds". But three purple hearts did get the recipient an early trip home.
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