I was going to reply to your earlier post re: Bill Randall. I think he’s got the best chance among the black Republican longshots (Charles Lollar, etc.), but he’s still a longshot. Brad Miller will be very tough to beat in that district, but it is not outside the realm of possibility.
George W. Bush got 50% and 49% in the NC-13 (as currently drawn) in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Obviously, the district’s voters aren’t quite as allergic to the GOP label as one would think looking at Miller’s winning percentages (keep in mind that the presidential vote is a far better predicter of how a district will vote when the environment turns against the incumbent than his past winning percentages). This is not a presidential election year, and Miller won’t be able to count on a large black turnout (his district is 30% black), or probably on a very large college-student turnout. Burr will be wiping the floor with Marshall in the rural counties in the district (i.e., everything but its portion of Raleigh and Greensboro). Under this environment, a generic conservative Republican would likely win the district fairly comfortably over a generic liberal Democrat. Of course, Brad Miller is a somebody, and Bill Randall is (at least currently) a nobody, but that Heineman guy who beat Congressman Price in 1994 was completely unknown. If Randall beats Miller in 2010, it would not be remembered as one of the five biggest upsets of the past 20 years, but it would still be a huge upset.
Fred Heineman wasn’t a complete unknown. He was the longtime (1979-94) Raleigh Police Chief. I just learned he died in March at the age of 80 (I hate that AP discontinued its daily obit roundups, they often miss former members of Congress).