The 13th could be made more Republican (56% Dem in 2010) but it would probably be better to shore up the 7th (55%) and 8th (54%).
The southwest is a bit more problematic. Mike Doyle's 14th (69% D) could probably be made more Democrat; as I recall Rick Santorum did win it but it wasn't easy. Tim Murphy's 18th (67% R) might be able to absorb a few Democrats from the 4th (51% D) or the 12th (51% D) and he'll still be able to win easily. Mike Kelly of Butler is in the 3rd district (56% R) that stretches all the way to Erie. It was previously held by a Democrat so it's a potentially fragile seat.
In the 12th, Critz won the southwestern part of the district (Greene/Washington/Allegheny/Fayette) and the eastern part (Cambria) with Burns taking the middle (Armstrong/Westmoreland/Somerset). Critz is from Johnstown so if the district is eliminated he'd be paired against Shuster of Hollidaysburg or maybe Peterson of Bellefonte.)
In the 4th, Rothfus won the western part of the district (Butler/Allegheny/Westmoreland), with Altmire holding the eastern part (Beaver/Lawrence/Mercer). I can see this district getting eliminated instead of the 12th; Altmire of McCandless could be paired against Murphy of Upper St. Clair or Kelly of Butler. More later...
OH going to lose two seats.
Combine 9-10-11
Katpur-Kasinich-Fudge into one
MA to lose at least one. Look for a retirement(Barney or the living fossil John Olver) or someone runs against Scott Brown(Lynch or Capuano). everyone else divvies up what’s left
As a general comment for all of the states, the results of this election show a map that contains 1-3 urban core areas in many states surrounded by red districts. But, many of these districts were blue last week. The big exception to this trend is the Northeast and the West coast, but for the rest of the country there is an opportunity to firm up these new red districts and leave the urban core islands to the Dems. Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Virginia, Georgia are all examples of this phenomenon and are mostly states where the Republicans will have some say in the redistricting process. Done right, these states will be pretty hard to pull into the blue column during Presidential election and without them, Dems can’t win a national election.
The GOP was too aggressive in 2001 with PA and they ended up losing 5 seats.
There’s no reason to play offense at all and try to dislodge anyone. 12-7 (soon to be 12-6) is a huge advantage in a state that normally votes slight D.
As for who gets eliminated, its almost certainly Critz. I’d just merge the 4th and 12th, personally, as best as can be done.
What is wrong with this picture?
Congress plays this little game every ten years and one state or another always loses. Doesn't anyone think it's time to open the so-called People's House to real representation?
No Taxation Without REAL Representation!
*placemarker bump*
This is best I came up with.
Current Texas delegation is 23-9. I smash up Gene Green's 29th (used to be 62% Obama, now 55% McCain), shored up Canseco (53% McCain) and Farenholdt (51% McCain) as much as possible.
I also created a new Dem district in Dallas, which has to be done. Should be 27-9.