Posted on 02/29/2012 8:05:44 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
On a recent Lou Dobbs show, The Hill commentator Dick Morris was asked about the primary outcome: Mitt Romney wins Michigan and then goes on to sweep Super Tuesday and wins the nomination. He beats Obama and is elected president in 2012.
Makes sense. But Laura Ingraham, who brings intuition to her take, said Tuesday morning on Imus that if Romney wins Michigan, look for a Gingrich insurgence on Super Tuesday. In a word, Gingrich will finally have commandeered the insurgent’s role, taking it finally from Santorum (and Perry, Cain, Bachmann and Paul). And since Sarah Palin was named VP by John McCain in 2008, conservative culture has been in a grassroots insurgency; it is an authentic insurgency in search of its Trickster, and that could well be Newt Gingrich.
Intuitive, in my estimation, as this race has been influenced by two factors: one, the rise of a garden variety of new ideas and all candidates besides Romney can be seen as proponents of some kind of new thinking; some of it strange (Santorum), some of it lucid (Paul). This calls an end to the conservative tradition if there ever even has been one to end. Two, the “establishment,” a phrase I first used primarily to call on the Bush family apparatus featuring Chris Christie and Jeb Bush, including the Weekly Standard group, featuring Fred Barnes as representative (who first pitched Christie/Jeb Bush 2012), is not really a tradition so much a mainstream power/influence group and they have shown great reluctance to get behind the obvious manager here, Mitt Romney. I can think of no other reason why they opposed him other than the fact that he is a clear thinker and smarter than they are and will not be lackey to their initiatives and agendas as George W. Bush was. This has left the field open to the insurgents.
This could be a fatal mistake for the Republicans because without mainstream support behind Romney and with the establishment’s wicked, perverse and subversive wish for a brokered convention in which Christie and Jeb Bush would emerge, it sends the weight instead to whomever can consolidate the varied publics behind the “new people”: Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, Gingrich, Ron Paul and throw in Sarah Palin. Who would be the single combat warrior to oppose? Newt Gingrich. And bring back Rick Perry as VP.
In a more spooky vein, it is interesting that Gingrich brought up the Lincoln/Douglas debate as with Gingrich it has always come to my mind in my Southern experience the Simon Legree type or archetype; those from elsewhere who come to the South and love it too much. And Obama brings Lincoln to mind considering that Obama fulfills the third goal of the Lincoln era: the first goal to prevent Southern secession, the second to free the slaves, the third to bring egalitarianism between white and black. Obama v. Gingrich in debate does indeed suggest Lincoln v. Douglas; the ghosts of Lincoln and Douglas.
When history finally completes its purposes, it tends to move on. Is it possible to see Gingrich winning a debate with Obama? Entirely. And thus the presidency? The country has been in a fever these past three years. Absolutely.
The problem is that Gingrich was already the insurgent, with huge momentum out of South Carolina, and then he had a good one-on-one matchup with Romney in Florida, and got crushed (so badly that even with Santorum’s entire vote count, he couldn’t have beaten Romney).
Then, he essentially skipped the next 5 contests, choosing to go for a “super tuesday” strategy. Maybe that will work, I certainly hope one of the two (Santorum/Gingrich) can get momentum back and win, but Gingrich has become an afterthought everywhere but in a few conservative circles, so he’s got a tough road to travel to get the general population to remember he’s around and move back to him.
“As I said before, a Romney nomination equates with the death of the GOP.”
And the death of this country, because a Romney nomination will mean another term for Obama.
“Romney will get slaughtered in the General.”
I’m so so sure. Unless the questions are already known, zero won’t be able to use his teleprompter.
Santorum can go and become a Televangelist on the Catholic Channel!
Santorum wasn’t competing in Florida, so to claim that Santorum was “crushed” by Newt in Florida, you also have to acknowledge that Gingrich was just crushed by Santorum in 5 straight races, including Michigan.
Plus, Michigan is only seen as a collapsing failure because PPP, a democratic outfit, through up a poll that said Santorum was leading by 15% in Michigan, when their previous poll and subsequent poll both showed much different results.
If not for that “Santorum is way ahead” meme pushed by PPP and I think one other poll, we’d have seen Michigan for what it was, a close race where Romney had great advantages, including a LOT of early voting, and where Santorum managed to come within 5%, and to take about half the delegates, essentially splitting the state.
Gingrich of course already had 2 bites at the apple, collapsing in December and again after South Carolina.
And in an interesting twist, in the states where GIngrich came in 2nd, the combined Gingrich/Santorum vote never seems to have beaten the Romney vote. Whereas, in the states where Santorum came in 2nd, the only state where their combined total didn’t beat Romney was Arizona. And neither Santorum nor Gingrich were really competing in Arizona. So, in addition to Newt beating Romney 1 time, and Rick beating Romney 4 times, in Michigan Newt/Santorum beat Romney.
Three states where Newt beat Rick but didn’t win:
New Hampshire: Romney 97K, Newt/Rick 47K
Florida: Romney 775K, Newt/Rick 756K
Nevada: Romney 16K, Newt/Rick 10K
Two states where Rick beat Newt but didn’t win:
Michigan: Romney 411K, Rick/Newt: 443K
Arizona: Romney 217K, Rick/Newt: 196K
And the only state where Romney broke 50% was a state where Newt came in 2nd place.
Of course, the “electorate” isn’t doing analysis. They will move partly based on what the news media says this week. But I doubt the news media is going to play the “Newt Resurgence” story again. And if they don’t, it will be interesting to see if Newt has enough money to get that message out himself.
So far, he seems to be concentrating on 2 states, one of which he was always expected to win (his home state, Georgia), and another (Tennessee) where if he didn’t win, Santorum would win, so his efforts aren’t doing anything to stop Romney.
On a recent Luoo Dubbs shoo, Zee Heell cummentetur Deeck Murrees ves esked ebuoot zee preemery ooootcume-a: Meett Rumney veens Meechigun und zeen gues oon tu sveep Sooper Tooesdey und veens zee numeeneshun. He-a beets Oobema und is ilected preseedent in 2012.
Mekes sense-a. Boot Loora Ingrehem, vhu breengs intooeeshun tu her teke-a, seeed Tooesdey murneeng oon Imoos thet iff Rumney veens Meechigun, luuk fur a Geengrich insoorgence-a oon Sooper Tooesdey. In a vurd, Geengrich veell feenelly hefe-a cummundeered zee insoorgent’s rule-a, tekeeng it feenelly frum Sunturoom (und Perry, Ceeen, Bechmunn und Pool). Und seence-a Sereh Peleen ves nemed FP by Juhn McCeeen in 2008, cunserfeteefe-a cooltoore-a hes beee in a gressruuts insoorgency; it is un oozeenteec insoorgency in seerch ooff its Treeckster, und thet cuoold vell be-a Noot Geengrich.
Michigan isn’t like those states either. And Rush is wrong to suggest that negative ads automatically equate to winning, if so we can pull up our stakes now, because Obama’s going to outspend anybody we have.
You are giving reasons why Newt collapsed; does it really matter why? The object is to win the nomination, not have good reasons why a candidate didn’t.
Anyway, I would reject your contention that Florida is like New Jersey, or New Hampshire (those two states are remarkably different from each other, and from Florida).
A lot of people repeat the “65-to-1” number, but that seems to be a creative fiction.
THe total spending by ROmney in florida since the start of the campaign was $15.5, vs $3.3 million for GIngrich (a 5:1 ratio). But most of Romney’s early advertisements were not attacks on Gingrich. A lot were positive, and some were attacks on Santorum (after Iowa, when Santorum was a threat).
After the South Carolina primary Romney and his superpac spent $6.6 million, Gingrich/superpac spent $3 million, about a 2:1 ratio. This is the same ratio as Romney outspent Santorum. And the unions in Florida ran another $1 million against Romney in Florida, and none against Gingrich.
And you also have to ask this question. Gingrich and his superpac has had almost twice as much money as Santorum. But in Florida, a must-win state for Gingrich, Gingrich and his superpac spent 3.3 million. In Michigan, a state about half the size, Santorum/Superpac spent $2.1 million, a higher investment per-capita.
And on a per-vote basis, Santorum did much better spending per vote than Gingrich got out of his florida spending. Also, the 2:1 advantage Romney had in Michigan doesn’t count the attack ads run by the Ron Paul campaign.
And I don’t think Reagan would have had much trouble beating Romney in Florida, because his negative attack ads wouldn’t have resonated in any way, shape, or form against Reagan. Negative ads work if you can’t counter them with the truth, either because you have no money, or because the negatives are true; I don’t think Reagan would have had either of those two problems.
That in fact might be the biggest harm conservatives get from having two candidates — the money is split, so if both candidates don’t run ads against Romney in a state, Romney can easily outspend the conservatives. In Florida, Gingrich was the only one running ads. In Michigan, Santorum was on his own against Romney and Paul.
Anyway, hopefully either Santorum will survive this, or Gingrich will manage to get attention again. I think we’d be better off if Gingrich could come back, since he has a bit more of a “wow” factor than Santorum could ever have, but on the other hand I think Gingrich CAN’T come back, which is why I haven’t just jumped on the NewtWagon.
Don’t count Newt out—if he doesn’t get President—he might get VP—then there is the Senate—or Governor of some state. He has more lives than a cat.
8-9 of the total points won by Santorum last night in Michigan were democrat voters.
Absent democrats Santorum would have lost by more than 10 points.
Gingrich has shown to be the only Republican that can beat Romney in a PRIMARY that has real delegates at stake. One where the candidates are "all in".
With due respect, there are so many false dot connections and convenient over looks in your analysis that it’s not worth responding to point by point.
“Tied?” LOL! Hardly that!
The article from USA Today said the delegates would be split. Rush is on now saying that some of the districts are too close to call...and it could go 17-13 in Santorum's favor. You have no basis to ridicule my statement at this point.
Your savior...
My Savior is Jesus Christ. My preferred choice for President is Newt Gingrich. My prefered choice for President who has a reasonable chance to win the GOP nomination is Santorum.
Gingrich came in fourth in every district of Michigan and Arizona. I'm sorry to say that Newt Gingrich is no longer a viable candidate. It's unfortunate, but the choice is now Romney or Santorum. Get some reality, otherwise we'll be stuck with Romney.
Unfortunately, I didn’t use the same filter in responding to you earlier, or I could have saved myself some time.
I agree with you.
How can anyone in their right mind call 7% of the Michigan vote a victory?
Newt would make a fine Secretary of State.
True, but some of the Santorum backers have now convinced themselves that Santorum did not compete in Florida and SC - which is sheer sophistry. He didn’t do well, but those were key one at a time primaries.
Gingrich has shown to be the only Republican that can beat Romney in a PRIMARY that has real delegates at stake.
This from all of his experience of winning ONE state! Seriously?????? I am sorry but after Super Tuesday, he will have won 2 states. Just how does he get the nomination that you all are trying to sell. Sure I like Newt but sometimes you guys don’t look at reality.
True, but some of the Santorum backers have now convinced themselves that Santorum did not compete in Florida and SC - which is sheer sophistry. He didn’t do well, but those were key one at a time primaries.
You won’t hear me say that. But it doesn’t matter anyway. Newt won 1 state and Santorum won 4. Romney has won 5. Paul has won 0 states. Washington state will probably go to Santorum. Super Tuesday will go Georgie to Newt, Romney will get Mass. Santorum will get the rest.
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