The problem for the republican party is that so many conservatives cannot vote for Mitt Romney, no matter what.
I don’t know what the final percentage would be, but it is significant.
In spite of the enthusiasm factor in either parties, the only way Obama wins 4 more years is if by October 2012:
1. Gas prices drop to $3 area
2. Unemployment falls below 6.8%
3. Israel is pressured to postpone attack on nuclear sites in Iran through election.
If gas is around $4, unemployment is north of 8%, then even crazy uncle Paul beats Obama. My two college student kids have tons of friends and they are detecting 180 reversal from 2008 towards Obama.