Pennsylvania elected a Republican governor in 2010 by a margin of 8.8% and a Republican senator in 2010 by a margin of 2.0%.
How does O-Bah-Mah have a lock on Pennsylvania?
5 Words: "Phil A Del Phi A"
2010 wasn't a presidential election year and the Philadelphia machine was not in full swing.
2010 was not a presidential election year. Republicans running statewide in Pennsylvania do better in off-year elections. What that suggests to me is that when the Dems crank up the Philadelphia vote-fraud machine, they can 'steal' and election that is within a point -- maybe 2 points.
In 2010, PA also had about 8 congressional seats that switched from Dem to GOP. I’d call that pretty much a GOP sweep. Bush only lost PA by 4 points in 2004.
It’s hard for the conservstive T in PA to overcome the Philly/Pittsburgh liberal metro areas, if the urban areas come out in force. One factor in Romney’s favor is that the affluent suburbs in those metro areas may not be so enthusiastic about Obama this time and polls are showing that the urban voters are not as juiced about Obama as before.
So it could be close. Romney definitely needs to make Obama spend money in PA.
You’ll know PA is in play if Obama abandons the warm fuzzy ads he’s been running in that state, for the racist scare tactic James Byrd ones. That will be a desperation move that may turn off suburban voters, but if he sees it slipping away, it’s his Hail Mary.