Early Vote Looking Good in Iowa

[NY4Romney]

On October 15th, the Washington Post did on article on early voting in Iowa and how it is "looking good for democrats." They explained that of all ballots cast, it's 53% democrat and 28% republican - a 25% lead.

In 2008, democrats won the early vote by 18%

Now, today, only 3 days later, the Iowa Secretary of State reports of ballots cast, it is now 49% democrat and 30% Republican. That's a SIX POINT swing in just 3 days. Furthermore, the ballots "requested" is 46% to 31%. A report from Politico yesterday said this:

"Republican voters’ requests for ballots have eclipsed the Democrats for 10 straight days, significantly shrinking President Barack Obama’s advantage, state records show."

At this rate, we will significantly lower the early voting advantage democrats had in 2008. Remember, McCain WON the election day vote in most battleground states in 2008 - so if we keep early votes close (or better yet, win them), we'll likely win most if not all battleground states. Keep in mind that Romney is winning independents this year (unlike 2008), and 23% of ballots requested are from independents.

[deport]

For what it’s worth..........

Updated Iowa voter registration totals as of October 1:
675,171 No-Party;
622,176 Republicans;
611,284 Democrats

[NY4Romney]

Thanks for the info, deport. Let’s now compare that to October 2008:

693,447 - No Party
586,998 - Republican
685,818 - Democrat

So to October 2012, that’s a change of:
2.6% decrease in no party
5.9% increase in Republicans
10.8% decrease in Democrats

So the RV breakdown went from 35% Democrat, 30% Republican in 2008 to 32% Democrat, 33% Republican. Add the intensity gap between Republicans and Democrats, the fact that a higher percentage of registered republicans than dems are going to turn up at the polls, and Romney’s increased strength with independents, and I see an iowa victory as very possible, if not likely.

[kabar]

Now, today, only 3 days later, the Iowa Secretary of State reports of ballots cast, it is now 49% democrat and 30% Republican.

This must mean that 21% were cast by independents.

[carra]

Most Iowa Republicans actually prefer to go in person to the polls on election day. That’s what I will do and will be a poll watcher later in the day.

Iowa Republican registration this year has far eclipsed Democrat registration. Has gone from a Democrat advantage to Republican advantage this year.

[deport]

Thanks for the info.

In Texas we have in person early voting and it has been growing in popularity to where its around 40% in 2008 that participated. In some counties I think it has been over 50%. I like the process but I know it isn’t liked by all.