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Government Shutdown Melodrama Won’t Matter on Election Day 2016
The Daily Beast's Politics Beast ^ | September 23, 2013 | Stuart Stevens, Head Romney Strategist

Posted on 09/23/2013 4:21:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

In a week that will be dominated by the debt ceiling and Republican efforts to defund Obamacare, there will be an irresistible desire to view the outcome as having real political consequences for 2014 and the next presidential race. Let me offer a different view: nothing that happens this week will have much impact come Election Day next year or beyond.

Why? Little of this week’s melodrama is likely to affect the quality of life of most Americans. As Sen. Rand Paul observed, Obamacare is overwhelmingly likely to continue. The debt ceiling will be raised. Some politicians will have a good week and some a bad one, but most Americans just don’t care.

The real line of scrimmage in American politics is the economy. More than any single factor, the voter’s view of his or her own economic situation determines the vote. In November 2011, when Nate Silver famously predicted that President Obama had a 17 percent chance of winning reelection, the Republican Party had an approval rating of 35 percent, a terrible number that is about what it is today. But the more dominating number was the lowly 43 percent of voters who approved of Obama’s handling of the economy. On Election Day 2012, exit polls showed a significant gain for Obama, with his overall job approval up to 53 percent. Among voters who believed the economy was improving, Obama won a staggering 90 percent.

With no incumbent on the ballot in 2016, the electoral fate of the two parties almost surely will be determined by which party or presidential candidate is seen as best able to handle the economy. Right now, both parties are stumbling. But the Republicans have the greatest opportunity to offer an alternate economic vision to the Obama doldrums. Unfortunately, from my viewpoint....

(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: gop; obama; obamacare; randpaul
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
1 posted on 09/23/2013 4:21:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I wish I had read the author’s name before wasting my time. He’s almost solely responsible for the terrible Romney campaign strategy.


2 posted on 09/23/2013 4:24:48 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama is proving that very bad ideas can be wrapped up in pretty words)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Comedian Fred Allen once said: “A conference of radio executives is a meeting at which men who can do nothing agree collectively that nothing can be done.” That is from “Too Hot for Radio” by Anthony Tollin.

For “radio executives” substitute Karl Rove, Rand Paul, any number of others.


3 posted on 09/23/2013 4:26:40 PM PDT by odawg
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From the article: “Unfortunately, from my viewpoint....”

Ehhhhh, point of order...your viewpoint sucks.


4 posted on 09/23/2013 4:26:51 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Someone needs to pass a LAW FORCING the government workers to work every damn day of the year, maybe that will shut up the morons that whine about “shutting down the government”....

Make ‘em all work weekends and holidays, nothign better than being able to go into the SS office on christmas to request a new SSN card...

To hell with the fools in government, they don’t want to be shut down, then make them work weekends and Holidays!


5 posted on 09/23/2013 4:31:06 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The news media will do their best to REMAIN SILENT on Hillary's 3 epic failures:

1) Russian 'RESET' (the button wasn't even spelled right)
2) Sucking up to terrorist Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood (Whoops!)
3) Benghazi (Setting Stevens up for his murder on 9/11 then blaming it on a video and an American filmmaker, not Islamic terrorists)

6 posted on 09/23/2013 4:32:15 PM PDT by CivilWarBrewing
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why not just shut them down to weekend levels every other friday then every friday then every friday plus every other thursday and move on down the damn line...

Untill the fools learn how to budget....


7 posted on 09/23/2013 4:32:17 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s Mr. Etch-A-Sketch!


8 posted on 09/23/2013 4:51:48 PM PDT by Mr. Peabody
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