Upset: Republican wins surprise blowout in Arkansas Senate special election

Hot Air ^ | January 17, 2014 | Guy Benson

[2ndDivisionVet]

Let’s read some 2014 tea leaves, shall we? First, some background on an Arkansas special election that was decided earlier this week:

The special election for a northeast Arkansas Senate seat vacated by a lawmaker who resigned over ethics violations will be an early bellwether on the fight to protect the state’s Medicaid expansion, as well as Democrats’ chances in the November election. Voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots in the special election between Democrat Steve Rockwell and Republican John Cooper for state Senate District 21 seat that covers the Jonesboro area. The winner will serve the remainder of the term of former state Sen. Paul Bookout – a Democrat. The race for Bookout’s seat between Rockwell and Cooper has centered on the key issue facing lawmakers when they return for next month’s fiscal session – whether to continue the state’s “private option” plan to expand Medicaid.

Craighead County has not been represented by a Republican in the state senate since reconstruction. An analysis from the left-wing Daily Kos explained the dynamics and significance of this race:

Craighead County is part of the Delta. As such, it is part of the rural Democratic coalition that dominated state politics for over a century. Today, county politics are still largely Democratic…On the politics side of things, this election is huge. Craighead County is a key area of the state for both Mark Pryor and Mike Ross to win (they need to get at minimum 49% of the vote in this county to win the state) If Rockwell can’t put up a decent showing, Democrats are going to have some serious issues going into 2014.

So here we had a contested race in a traditionally Democratic area, the outcome of which held significant implications for Mark Pryor’s re-election bid. An Obamacare-related controversy drove the campaign. Oh, and according to an email blast from the NRSC, the Republican candidate was outgunned on the spending front by a three-to-one margin. Your result:

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)

It wasn’t even close. The victorious Cooper called his triumph a “statement win.” Indeed. I’d imagine Sen. Pryor can hear that statement loud and clear.

[FreedomPoster]

That’s a pretty serious thumping.

[nathanbedford]

Even if the Republicans prevail and take a majority in the Senate, how much will it matter? If speaker Boehner and newly elected Majority Leader McConnell are running the Congress in the shadow of Barack Obama's veto pen, what will they do that differs from what they did when they had majorities under George Bush?

Mark Levin is the one who is making this point consistently, the Republicans have not even written a bill repealing Obamacare. The Republican elites are preparing not to repeal it but to shape it. The same elites are going to pass amnesty to appease the Chamber of Commerce and collect their campaign contributions. They have just passed a $1 trillion budget gimmick and they justify every pusillanimous surrender openly as the only way they can avoid a government shutdown.

Is there any bright and shining historic stand that these people have taken which gives us genuine hope that they will actually change the headlong course the country is taking toward tyranny and disaster?

[Kit cat]

In a word NO!

[Yogafist]

Of course they will, its called amnesty.

[Excellence]

Health insurance lobbyists own both parties.

[jocon307]

“...special elections are a bell-weather for absolutely nothing....”

I agree, but it might be an indicator for Pryor and other statewide candidates in that state.

[beandog]

I doubt you would have the same opinion if a Rat had won.

[Zhang Fei]

25% black and Hispanic district:

http://ballotpedia.org/Arkansas_State_Senate_District_21

Assuming all ethnicities voted in proportion, and blacks and Hispanics voted 100% for the Dem, Cooper got 2/3 of the white vote. Not ideal, but good enough for a win.

[Zhang Fei]

I have previously predicted that the Pubbies will NOMINATE a Northeastern RINO, similar to Romney. Christy? Whoever it will be, he/she will suffer the same fate.

It's a good strategy. The GOP doesn't have problems winning in red states - it's got problems in places like Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, which are trending blue. When it starts losing red states, it might start choosing ultra-conservative presidential nominees, but then we get Goldwater-style drubbings. That's why we have primaries and caucuses in 50 states rather than just the red states. We need more than red states to win the White House. In the blue/purple states, a lot of GOP voters are way more liberal, and the final nominee needs to be able to win their votes in order to have a shot at winning those states. Weirdly enough, without an electoral college system, an ultra-conservative candidate might be able to win enough red state votes to dispense with having to deal with blue/purple states. But that's not the system we have today.

[matthew fuller]

"It's a good strategy."

Yeah, it worked SO well with Romney, McCain and Dole. I guess that the most conservative candidate that we ran (RWR) was an exception to the strategy.

[skinkinthegrass]

I have previously predicted that the Pubbies will
NOMINATE a Northeastern RINO, similar to Romney.yeah, the GOP/e, is awash w/traitors, turncoats, populists &
opportunitsts, not one patriot amongst them all..citizens of the lowest order.
bread, circuses & serfdom, is all the Establishment offers..no responsibility.

[skinkinthegrass]

hmm...in many ways, you maybe on target (get ready for flax :)
..local issues/politics are predominant in a hard economy.
whomever controls the media, controls the issues..the spotlight.

[bmwcyle]

I wonder who the NSA is studying this week? /sarcasm

[Zhang Fei]

Yeah, it worked SO well with Romney, McCain and Dole. I guess that the most conservative candidate that we ran (RWR) was an exception to the strategy.

Reagan wasn't seen as a conservative. He was seen as Reagan, a larger than life figure who transcended conservatism. Similarly, some southern states voted for Clinton (vs Dole) not because he was a liberal, but because he was a good old boy who transcended ideology. Obama won purple states despite being a far leftist because the electorate doesn't see him as a far leftist - he transcends leftism. Romney and McCain won the red states. They lost the union states that voted for Reagan against Mondale because he imposed significant protectionist measures to keep union jobs in the country - measures that neither Romney or McCain will stand behind. The free trade orthodoxy that has taken over the GOP is probably the factor that has sunk its electoral fortunes in the rust belt, rather than any number of social issues. Bush II won via superior organization, but Obama showed us twice that the Dems have caught up in that arena, and then some.

[Lazamataz]

While this is nice, special elections are a bell-weather for absolutely nothing.

RIGHT! Like when Scott Brown won in Massachusetts in January of 2010, then in November of 2010 when failed to take any seats at all!!!

.... oh, wait....

[Zhang Fei]

Reagan was our FDR. For most of the electorate, to hear either of these men’s voices was to believe and trust them. There is no shortage of conservatives in the GOP. What we lack is someone with Reagan’s charisma. I like Palin, but her personality is grating to the majority of Americans and a large number of Republicans. She also has the distinction of being a half-term governor from a tiny state, population-wise. In the 200+ years of this nation’s history, we’ve had one FDR and one RWR. I wouldn’t count on anyone in the GOP, moderate or conservative, coming anywhere near RWR’s numbers.

[PapaBear3625]

I keep saying, they do not call them the stupid party for nothing.

They are not stupid. They are corrupt. There's a difference.

The Republican establishment understands they can win seats in conservative areas by appearing conservative. Meanwhile, they avoid trouble with the Dems, media, and protestors by not opposing the Dems on anything the Dems deem important.

By playing ball, they can also get invited to fun parties, have mistresses, smoke pot, take bribes, etc. They understand the fun stops when they balk the Left.

[usconservative]

I expect the Republicans to somehow throw it all away between now and November.

I wouldn't take that on a bet myself. The Republican party has an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory time, after time, after time.

That's why they're referred to as the STUPID Party in my house.

(Alternatively, the Democrats are the EVIL Party.)

[matthew fuller]

I am not counting on a RWR redux, but I do have high hopes for either Cruz or Paul. I realize that Paul is correctly considered a Libertarian, but I like his style, and guts- (same as Cruz).Two other politicians that I find refreshingly agreeable are Louis Gohmert, and Trey Gowdy, but it is a looong stretch for Representatives. But we will undoubtedly wind up with another McCain, Dole, or Romney, and drive off the Tea Party, Conservative, and Evangelical votes, thereby electing the dimmacrat. I don’t see Hillary running.

[skinkinthegrass]

they will lucky to exist as a going
concern after the elections this yeartrue, they'll be part of the Establishment Party's..
Nomeklatura, serving as low-grade Apparachniks
but nowhere else, b/c they'll be chained in DC