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A super-early look at the 2016 N.H. GOP presidential primary
The Concord Monitor ^ | February 26, 2014

Posted on 02/27/2014 3:12:30 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Who’s likely to do well in New Hampshire’s 2016 first-in-the-nation presidential primary? It’s a preposterous question, here in 2014, but what the heck? We asked six experts to weigh in on some of the biggest political players. Our analysts are Wayne Lesperance, political science professor at New England College; Phil Boynton, president of the University of New Hampshire College Republicans; Peter Burling, Democratic national committeeman; Dante Scala, professor of political science at UNH; Jess Steever, vice president of the Plymouth State University Democrats; and Brandon Lemay, public relations officer for the PSU Democrats.

Today, our panelists consider the Republicans. Tomorrow, the Democrats.

N.H. Sen. Kelly Ayotte's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: Speculation about Kelly Ayotte as part of a presidential ticket peaked during the 2012 election cycle when Mitt Romney reportedly considered her as a VP choice on his ticket. She has emerged as a powerful voice in the Senate and is often associated with other Senate leaders like John McCain and Lindsey Graham. While there’s no evidence she’s interested …

Former Mass. senator Scott Brown's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: Senator, governor, president of the United States. Scott Brown’s name has been associated with a variety of offices. He has yet to declare his intent to run for any of them. Still, we cannot rule out the possibility. Brown’s is a national name. He can raise money and he has been popular with moderates and independent voters, the latter …

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: Jeb Bush is equal parts exciting and troubling here in New Hampshire. For more establishment types and moderates, Bush is an exciting candidate because he’s not from the more-to-the-right Tea Party wing of the party. Still, there is plenty of concern about the Bush brand post-George W. Bush. And others are concerned about the idea of a Bush Dynasty …

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: Up until what his opponents are affectionately calling Bridgegate or Bridgenado, Chris Christie was considered a top-tier candidate for president. Now, in the aftermath of the scandal, his brand is damaged, and as long as this story remains in the news, his path to a New Hampshire primary win is less clear. Boynton: Tough, no-nonsense and a straight shooter, …

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: For some, Ted Cruz is the embodiment of the spirit of John Stark’s “Live Free or Die.” In the aftermath of last year’s government shutdown, Cruz is positioning himself as the Republican willing to take on the establishment of his party and shut down the government over fiscal principles. The challenge for Cruz: That approach plays well with a …

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: A dark horse candidate according to most polls, whatever excitement once existed for a Jindal candidacy seems to have waned. Still, Jindal will be in New Hampshire in March and does seem to be gearing up for a run. He’s one to watch and will benefit from the type of campaign that the New Hampshire primary is known for: …

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: Rand Paul has walked a very interesting divide someplace between his father’s populist approach and one of a more pragmatic candidate. He is loved in Tea Party circles and feared in more establishment ones. His brand of politics will play well in the Granite State, especially if he can find a way to attract younger voters to his candidacy. …

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: The future of the Republican Party rests in its ability to break up the Obama coalition of Hispanics, women and young voters. Marco Rubio has been heralded as a candidate who can draw Hispanic voters back to the GOP. His efforts with immigration reform are an example of his work in support of this key constituency. Unfortunately, it’s not …

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan's chances in N.H. for 2016

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Lesperance: New Hampshire has a long history of supporting fiscal conservatives. Yankee frugality lends itself to those who at least speak to fiscal responsibility. Paul Ryan should do well with that segment of voters. But there will need to be a second and third act to draw enough support to win the primary. Boynton: Honestly, I don’t think Paul Ryan …


TOPICS: Florida; Kentucky; Louisiana; New Hampshire; New Jersey; Texas; Wisconsin; Campaign News; Issues; Parties
KEYWORDS: 2014election; 2016; 2016election; 2016gopprimary; bobbyjindal; chrischristie; demagogicparty; election2014; election2016; florida; jebbush; kellyayotte; kentucky; louisiana; marcorubio; memebuilding; newhampshire; newjersey; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; paulryan; randpaul; scottbrown; tedcruz; texas; wisconsin
So Marco Rubio is an Hispanic, but Ted Cruz isn't? Even this early they're playing word games, aimed at shaping perceptions. Each name can be clicked on to read more.
1 posted on 02/27/2014 3:12:31 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Commentary by Peter Burling? You can’t get anymore far left than Peter. He is an accomplished liar and not afraid to double down on his lies.


2 posted on 02/27/2014 3:23:13 AM PST by lucky american (Progressives are attacking our rights and y'all will sit there and take it.)
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To: lucky american

This liberal cesspool of marxists should be the LAST primary in the nation...period. Red Hampshire has been setting the table for America’s downfall for years, and its ‘first in the nation’ status should come to an end. An evil state that embraces abortion and the sodomite agenda.


3 posted on 02/27/2014 3:27:13 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The GOP, party of RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE and gay marriage
and lying about it, will be shaped by Romney and Rove
as in everyone of the last three elections.

Why? For their partners, Soros and Obama.

GOP = GIVE OBAMA POWER


4 posted on 02/27/2014 3:30:15 AM PST by Diogenesis
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To: lucky american
not afraid to double down on his lies

Works for liberals; conservatives are too divided and afraid of their own shadows to make any impact at all.

5 posted on 02/27/2014 3:30:53 AM PST by Theodore R. (Alas: TX Republicans to endorse Cornball and George P! Stay tuned March 4)
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To: who knows what evil?
it sets; the table for (only) RINOs..
RWR, had "beat-them-to-the-punch" in '75,
by that time..much like Cruz is doing now.
by keeping a consistent mindset/platform.

6 posted on 02/27/2014 3:39:50 AM PST by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a gun..0'Caligula / 0'Reid / 0'Pelosi)
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To: Diogenesis

Okay, so what are we going to do about that?


7 posted on 02/27/2014 3:44:07 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Name recognition.
That’s all it is—in ‘14, anyway.


8 posted on 02/27/2014 3:59:05 AM PST by Flintlock ( islam is a LIE, mohammed was a CRIMINAL, shira is POISON.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Did Scott Walker make this list?


9 posted on 02/27/2014 4:35:17 AM PST by Dr. Sivana ("I'm a Contra" -- President Ronald Reagan)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
chance of getting the nomination:

Kelly Ayotte 0

Scott Brown 0

Jeb Bush 50/50 (establishment/media favorite, could win in a crowded field where real republicans or conservatives split the votes)

Chris Christie 50/50 (establishment/media favorite, could win in a crowded field where real republicans or conservatives split the votes)

Ted Cruz 75%

Bobby Jindal 25%

Rand Paul 75%

Marco Rubio 50/50 or less (he would have been a slam-dunk before siding with Schumer)

Paul Ryan a bit more than zero.

chance of winning the general election:

Kelly Ayotte 0

Scott Brown 0

Jeb Bush 0

Chris Christie 0

Ted Cruz 0

Bobby Jindal 0

Rand Paul 0

Marco Rubio 0

Paul Ryan 0

combine the moron vote, vote fraud and the mediawhores assassinating any R candidate, the demhole wins.

10 posted on 02/27/2014 4:44:23 AM PST by wny
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

George W. Bush got 29% of the vote in the 2000 NH primary (and lost). I wrote a vanity in July 1999 about his appearance in my small town, which I wish was still available via the archives.

The essence of it was that he arrived at our town docks in a convoy of antique wooden speedboats, after spending the night on an island in Lake Winnipesaukee with some rich friends. He was escorted by an honor guard of country clubbers and real estate brokers wearing straw boaters and blue blazers. He gave a poor speech at the bandstand which, after a perfunctory nod to servicemen (and, of course, women) at the “tip of the spear” devolved into a laundry list of who would receive what benefits from his election, starting with “single moms”, who he described as “true heroes”. He promised that his government would track down all the bad men who had abandoned them, and would make them pay. He then went on to describe an outline of what became No Child Left Behind. I got to shake his hand, and to tell him that women initiate 70-80% of divorces, He had dead eyes.

He left his fake cowboy hat at home, I guess. Bushismo was never popular here, and I doubt that Bush III will do any better.


11 posted on 02/27/2014 4:58:30 AM PST by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I should add that the country club/real estate broker faction of the NH Republican party has pretty much killed it off as a viable political force.

NH is a very funny state, politically. Many, many “leave me alone” voters. Lots of tarpaper shacks with satellite dishes and Gadsden flags in the hills. The Marxists win often because the GOPe is so loathsome.

As long as W’s wooden speedboat crowd is the face of the party, things won’t improve.


12 posted on 02/27/2014 5:03:26 AM PST by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Jim Noble

-— He was escorted by an honor guard of country clubbers and real estate brokers wearing straw boaters and blue blazers -—

Isn’t that special. Yeesh.


13 posted on 02/27/2014 5:04:40 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: wny

Then why are you even here? If we’re doomed to fail from now on, wouldn’t gardening, RC aircraft or perhaps bowling be a better use of your time?


14 posted on 02/27/2014 5:04:54 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas; Jim Noble
Yeah, that's my experience with his father when I worked on a competing campaign in Iowa back in 1987-88. All the wealthy, well-placed, country-clubbers, Ivy Leagues, lawyers, corporate types and old money were present-and-accounted for. They import a boatload of little Thurston Howell III types from back East and treat the locals like Slav peasants or worse.
15 posted on 02/27/2014 5:08:51 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
treat the locals like Slav peasants or worse

Great description.

Of course, here the GOPe are locals, too (when they're not at one of their other homes), but they regard roof shovelers, plow guys, painters, deer cutters, plumbers, electricians, small engine repairmen, etc, etc as beneath their notice and they could care less than zero about those guys fundamentally yeoman interests.

Trying to drag a Republican candidate in NH across the finish line with those guys in charge is like trying to water ski with a boat anchor around your right ankle.

16 posted on 02/27/2014 5:16:25 AM PST by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Jim Noble

Before that campaign I was a volunteer for the county GOP for 3-5 hours a day, 5 days a week for about 2 years. Once they gave me the pin that a high-level donor would get, for my thousands of hours of service (including millions in fundraising), but cautioned me not to wear it “around real donors” who’d given money. That was my last day volunteering.


17 posted on 02/27/2014 5:28:49 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We're not doomed to fail. I'd rather have 15 each Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Rand Paul & Marco Rubio in the Senate, along with 220 real republicans/conservatives in the house than have Cristie or Jeb as president.

I just don't foresee another R president again. A country stupid enought to re-elect Obama will elect any lib-hole that comes along. As I said, the moron vote (Obama give us a phone!), vote fraud (let's add the felon vote, the illegal alien vote and amnesty) and the MSMwhore ministry of propaganda will be enough to carry the day for the demholes. The same mediawhores that thought Romney's dog and a high school pranks were newsworthy ignored Bengazhi, fast & furous, the IRS.............(George Washington Bridge anyone?)

18 posted on 02/27/2014 6:25:14 AM PST by wny
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

She has emerged as a powerful voice in the Senate and is often associated with other Senate leaders like John McCain and Lindsey Graham.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Death knell for Ayotte!!!


19 posted on 02/27/2014 10:13:04 AM PST by Din Maker (If Ted Cruz gave Rand Paul one of his balls, they'd both have one.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Rand Paul has walked a very interesting divide someplace between his father’s populist approach and one of a more pragmatic candidate.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Pragmatic defined: Kiss Mitch McConnell’s ass and endorse him instead of his Conservative opponent in the Primary, in hopes for political favors in the future.


20 posted on 02/27/2014 10:15:18 AM PST by Din Maker (If Ted Cruz gave Rand Paul one of his balls, they'd both have one.)
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To: Din Maker
I'm in KY; he'll never get my vote, Ted Cruz is my pick.

21 posted on 02/27/2014 10:18:31 AM PST by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a gun..0'Caligula / 0'Reid / 0'Pelosi)
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To: wny

It only took me a few seconds to realize that your screen name, wny, is a shortened version of “whiney”. Very appropriate.


22 posted on 02/27/2014 11:22:53 AM PST by Din Maker (If Ted Cruz gave Rand Paul one of his balls, they'd both have one.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I doubt if Christie or Jeb would pick Ayotte.

Ayotte could lose her Senate seat. Even Scott Brown could primary her from the right.


23 posted on 02/27/2014 8:15:19 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: Din Maker

aren’t you clever.....


24 posted on 02/28/2014 4:05:19 AM PST by wny
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