Posted on 11/07/2014 10:19:52 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
In the aftermath of the resounding Republican takeover of the Senate this week, most everybody agrees two things are true. The GOP is going to face a much tougher Senate map and electorate in 2016. and the upper chamber is going to be populated for the next two years by a number of prominent Republicans (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio) with presidential ambitions.
Of the three, Cruz is undoubtedly the biggest troublemaker -- and he relishes that role. But by positioning himself to appeal to conservatives in a Republican presidential primary, he could force his more moderate GOP colleagues in blue states to take uncomfortable votes and thereby put their brand-new Senate majority at risk.
"What you're going to have is a lot of tension between the presidential electorate and the candidates who are going to be appealing to that radical right wing of the party," Norm Ornstein, congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, told TPM, "and a number of the Senate candidates who are going to be trying furiously to create some armor of protection to look like they're moderate or not crazy."
States with senators up for re-election in 2016.
It starts with the map. Republicans won the Senate on Tuesday thanks to a favorable map comprised of Democrats who won in the 2008 Obama wave and a midterm electorate that favors the GOP. In 2016, the roles will be reversed: Republicans up for re-election who won with the 2010 GOP wave in bluer states facing a presidential electorate that favors Democrats.
Per Roll Call, Republicans are defending 24 states in 2016, versus Democrats' 10. Those include states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Florida that went twice for Obama. The GOP will have made the climb a little steeper for Democrats with what could be a 54-seat majority by the time 2014 is finished. But that doesn't change the underlying fundamentals.
"There's no question that 2016 will be challenging for the GOP," Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told TPM, "though a 54-vote GOP Senate is a much tougher nut for Democrats to crack in 2016."
So the challenge is still with the GOP -- and their presidential aspirants, personified in Cruz, could make it a lot more difficult for those moderates who the GOP needs to win in 2016 to keep their majority.
"The pressure is going to come from within their own caucus. You've got three guys running for president, none of whom care about the Senate or their colleagues or their colleagues' views," Jim Manley, a former aide to outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), told TPM. "When Ted Cruz starts demanding a personhood amendment, I don't think there's a lot of Republicans within that caucus who are going to be happy."
One Republican strategist told TPM that he was worried that the party would overreact to President Barack Obama's coming executive action on immigration reform and in turn damage its chances to retain the Senate and win the White House in 2016. Cruz and allies have railed against potential "lawless amnesty" that would result in "a constitutional crisis."
"You have a lot of people who are going to be preparing for a difficult election, that'll be their mindset. You have three or four members of the Senate running for president," the strategist said. "You'll have this push-and-pull on this stuff. I think it's going to be very difficult for people to deal with. I don't think people's goals are aligned."
"I'm really worried about the administrative action stuff. I do understand Republicans wanting to speak on that issue," the strategist continued, who brought up a scenario in which Republicans want to use government funding to undo Obama's executive actions. "That could leave some very long-lasting and devastating effects for 2016. People are going to be legalized and we're going to try to not legalize them. That is a wholly different thing politically."
All of those pressures will make life difficult for newly minted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- and that's not even accounting for any shenanigans coming from Democrats looking to take back their majority in two years.
"The idea that Mitch McConnell is going to restore the old Senate, with open amendments, is a real stretch," Ornstein said. "They bring up the first bill and Democrats offer 20 'gotcha' amendments, all aimed at putting pressure on and embarrassing and creating ads against all those vulnerable Republicans from blue states. How long until McConnell decides that he's going to fill the amendment tree? Not very long."
Manley pointed to McConnell's mention of a phone call from Cruz in his post-election press conference as evidence that all of these competing forces were at work just two days after the best Election Day for Republicans in a decade.
"That's what a leader is going to have to juggle," he said. "All leading indicators are that those tensions are already there."
Cruz it or lose it.
Who says McConnell is a shoe in for leader?
I am concerned that shutting down the government will cause the Republicans to not only not regain the Senate in 2014, but to lose the house as well!
I am concerned!
In fact it will happen without question.
Shutting down the government will put Democrats in the majority in both houses, mark my word!!!!!!!!!!!
Cruz is the GOP’s only hope. All else is worthless.
Seems that the states he mentions as going twice for obama all voted pretty strongly for Republicans this time (Except PA)
If the republicans pass a national requirement for photo ID to vote, the democrats will never win another election.
The only way I can foresee that being the case is if his presidential ambitions keep him too busy to ride the Senate, and the remaining RINO senators, like a rented mule. Other than that, he's golden.
and then a court throws it out saying it is state business
lolz
It’s starting..... They’re heeeeeere....
They are beginning to label Cruz. He needs to get out in front.
“Troublemaker?” He “relishes” causing problems? Cruz, don’t be a GW Bush and stay above the fray and not kill their characterizations of you.
Cruz tries to make government smaller and more accountable to the People. He needs to come up with easily repeatable memes and repeat them. He isn’t causing problems; he’s returning to a Constitutional Republic.
He would do well to explicitly describe what truly makes America great (her founding documents) and to write a VERY SHORT book without his picture on the front that would not be a throwaway glory book of the Magnificent Candidate, but a little, easy, clear treatise on our Founders/ Documents and what they mean, not to Cruz, but to EVERYONE.
He may be the only one who can truly teach what is missing in most education today: simple civics, why a representational republic left alone is better for each American than an intrusive, top heavy government. What freedom means, both in pleasures and responsibilities.
The book should be as small as Profiles in Courage. It should be so valuable even if he loses it stays around, and even can be used in classrooms, from 5th grade through college and in enlightening new citizens.
I wish I could be a part of a presidential campaign. Too many of the pros are too bleeping slick and get too far away from truth and freedom.
HA! I love it! And I'm on board the Cruz 2016 train!
Very good ideas - send them to his office. I do “conservatism in one sentence” all the time. The book you describe is badly needed.
Help us, Ted Cruz 2016! You’re our only hope! Run Ted RUN!!!!
The GOP has a real problem . . . Conservatives. The controlling members (Liberals) of the GOP hate Conservatives. Almost as much as Democrats (the most radical of Liberals).
But, unlike Democrats, the GOP can’t succeed without Conservatives. But, Conservatives can’t succeed with the Liberal wing of the GOP.
What to do?
Cruz/Walker 2016
The Republican party has fracture lines. The old guard RHINO - Country Club - Fundamentalists are not going to be able to hold it together with the libertarian-young-middle class-independent Republicans if they try and lord it over them. Sound bytes from McConnell and the like saying they won’t tolerate tea party pressures and that they will be made to toe the line tell me that the old guard hasn’t a clue what tomorrow’s republican party looks like. It is younger, more socially libertarian, colorful, fiscally conservative, energetic and activist. The new right knows they haven’t a chance if they create a new party so they are all about the fundamental transformation of the Grand Old Party to suit their needs and issues.
I’m a RAT, and I’m here to help...right.
” So he interviews three named liberal Democrats and an unnamed RINO staffer and considers it a balanced article? “
Well, its balanced for HIM.
LOL!
The only think prominent about Rubio is how fast he got sucker punched by the RATS.
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