He’s too divisive. His career is similar to Obama’s.
Rubio would be in trouble regardless of amnesty.
I think Jeb only has a 20 or 30% chance of being the nominee in 6 way race. The field is still likely.
I think Walker/Jindal/Pence type candidate is what the establishment really wants instead of Bush who can be beat up and pushed back against by the conservative congress and liberal general opponent.
McCain and Romney both won the Republican nomination by winning 25-30% of the votes in each primary. In a 6-way race, that's enough to claim an entire state's votes in a "winner-take-all" contest.
Neither McCain nor Romney won a majority in a Republican primary until they'd already clinched the nomination and everybody else had dropped out.
25 percent for Jebbie is a walkaway nomination in a crowded field, as you indicate.