Santorum won Iowa last time then finished fourth in NH, third in SC, third in FL...
Iowa is not important.
If Trump wins there, the primaries will be over quickly.
If he loses, we’ll have a drawn out contest but in the end he’ll still win.
Keep in mind that most states in the south award delegates proportionally and most states in the northeast are winner takes all.
Sweater Vest didn’t have $100 million dollars in the bank. Ted Cruz does.
Trump has a 21 point lead as of the 19th nationally on Fox. Yes, Trump had 39 to 18 according to O’Reilly. I am no fan of O’s. Iowa is a strange state.
THE TANGIBLE IMPACT OF A TRUMP WIN (hat tip jamaskin):
<><> an absolute "reset" of the bloated Federal government;
<><> decades of inbred Washington dysfunction totally destroyed;
<><> needless Congressional staffs set adrift;
<><> the entire K-street crowd, and that ilk, decimated;
<><> the power of policy wonks like McConnell, Ryan......gone.
<><> PC decimated.
You can’t have it both ways. Either Iowa is irrelevant, in which case a Trump win is also irrelevant. On the other hand, if the primaries will be over quickly if Trump wins, then Iowa must be so relevant that it’s a game-changer.
Which is it, irrelevant or determinative?
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Santorum won Iowa last time then finished fourth in NH, third in SC, third in FL...
Iowa is not important.
If Trump wins there, the primaries will be over quickly.
If he loses, we’ll have a drawn out contest but in the end he’ll still win.
Keep in mind that most states in the south award delegates proportionally and most states in the northeast are winner takes all.
In the last 20 years, the caucuses have an okay record of selecting the eventual Republican nominee.
They failed in 2008, Bush ran unopposed in2004, they picked the eventual nominee in 2000 and 1996.
In 2012, I remember that the initial headlines proclaimed Romney the winner (who was the eventual nominee), and it wasn’t until days later that Santorum was proclaimed the winner, thus muting any potential bump from the caucuses. Practically speaking, 2012 was a tie, with a finish that was immediately too close to call.
Actually would theorize that if Trump loses Iowa he will still run the rest of the table and wrap it up by mid April. Iowa is the only iffy place for Donald Trump. And as you say its not really important except for the ego.