The Primary of the Unbound Delegates

Right Wing News ^ | March 25, 2016 | Scott Rasmussen

[2ndDivisionVet]

The primaries and caucuses to select the Republican presidential nominee are officially scheduled to end on June 7. That's a big day when five states vote -- California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico.

But it's quite possible that no candidate will have amassed enough pledged delegates to insure a majority at the convention. The magic number needed is 1,237. Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner, but he still needs to win more than 50 percent of the remaining delegates to reach that goal.

Most media commentary assumes that if Trump is held below the 1,237 mark, there will be a contested convention in Cleveland. That's not necessarily the case.

After June 7, we will see what I call the Primary of the Unbound Delegates.

This primary will be to win the hearts and votes of several hundred delegates who have yet to pledge to any candidates. Unbound delegates at the Republican convention are quite different from the Super Delegates found among Democrats. They are delegates selected in a primary or caucus without being pledged to any candidate.

For example, on Friday, April 1, North Dakota will hold a caucus to elect 28 delegates. But they will all be selected to serve as free agents representing North Dakota Republicans rather than any particular candidate. An even bigger pool of unbound delegates will be found in Pennsylvania. Fifty-four of the state's 71 delegates will be elected without any presidential preference.

All told, there will be 166 delegates in this category. But there will almost certainly be more. The same numbers are pledged to support Marco Rubio and there are a handful of others pledged to support people like Jeb Bush or Ben Carson. These will all end up in the unbound category.

Regardless of the precise number, there will be more votes available in the Primary of the Unbound Delegates than in any single state primary. And the campaigns of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will be campaigning to win their support one delegate at a time. Some of these unbound candidates will announce their intentions before the convention while some may keep it to themselves. But we will hear constantly updated delegate totals throughout this process.

For any of this to matter requires one big assumption-Ted Cruz will have to find a way to beat Donald Trump in the remaining states. Cruz currently trails Trump by 274 delegates. If he can win just over half of the nearly 1,000 remaining delegates, he will pull to within 200 delegates of Trump's total heading into the Primary of the Unbound Delegates.

In that scenario, Cruz could enter the convention in first place by winning about two-thirds of the unpledged delegates. Given the nature of those delegates, that's not an unreasonable goal. Some come from states where Cruz did well. Others were initially pledged to candidates who prefer Cruz over Trump. It's even possible that the unbound delegates could deliver a first ballot victory to the Texas Senator.

That's what the numbers tell us, but the voters will decide if it's what they want. The only way that Ted Cruz can win the nomination is to defeat Donald Trump in the remaining primaries. If he can't do that, the unbound delegates are unlikely to save him.

Also see,

Voters Have Defeated the Establishment, Now Will Decide Nominee

[moonhawk]

Interesting—Thanks for posting. Looks like that could go either way.

[Innovative]

I certainly hope Trump gets the 1237 and thus preempts any planned manipulations at the convention.

[etcb]

Thanks for posting this. It is refreshing to see that a few individuals in media are finally going beyond the emotional issues and looking at reality. A presidential election is not a high school civics exercise. It is a complicated, hard fought, state by state slugfest with complicated rules and procedures developed over many years. Anyone who has a realistic expectation of winning must be tough, smart, and above all, have the ability and temperament to keep their focus on the ultimate prize.

Whether by design or not, the process minimizes the chance of a demagogue making it to the final goal. It also forces compromise and coalition building. While it would be less messy if one candidate achieved the 1237 bound delegates early, in a strange way I think it would be good for the country to have a convention where candidates were forced to work together in a give and take atmosphere of mutual reespect. In that case, we could possibly go into the general election without one faction bragging about their great victory and the other faction complaining about being treated unfairly while the real opponent laughs all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I have no idea what the number is for Ted Cruz’s IQ, other than it is clearly above the average. Having said that, it seems to me that he and his people have read the rulebook, know it inside and out, and are doing everything they can to make it bend in their favor. This is just one example.

[octex]

Interesting post.

If Trump doesn’t get 1237 before the convention, and all of the polling keeps showing he would lose to Hillary, it seems quite possible the unbound delegates could vote for Cruz.

[Redleg Duke]

I am afraid that even if Trump gets the needed majority, the GOPe will deny him the nomination.

They know that this is the last harrah of the “GOP”. The actions of the GOPe have validated the reality that they are part of the DC Uni-Party, along with the RATS and the MSM.

AFTER THIS ELECTION, A NEW PARTY MUST RISE FROM THE ASHES. That party will be comprised of the former Republicans and Democrats along with many Independs who have been abandoned by the RATS and GOP.