Posted on 04/14/2016 7:09:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
* Trump convention manager Paul Manafort told Sean Hannity that Cruz will “probably finish third in delegates in April.” But… Cruz has already won 88 of the 107 delegates awarded in the month.
* There is no way Kasich can catch Cruz.
* Finally, even giving Trump 81 out of 95 delegates in New York, there is a strong likelihood Cruz may still finish first in delegates for the month.
Trump convention manager Paul Manafort’s delegate skills may be a little rusty. He claimed on Hannity last night that Ted Cruz will “probably finish third in delegates in April.” An absurd statement on its face. Of the 107 delegates so far awarded in April, Cruz has won 88 of them—that’s 82 percent of the delegates. Trump has won seven, or 6.5 percent. Twelve delegates are uncommitted. There is no plausible path for Kasich to overtake Cruz for second, if in fact Cruz ends up in second.
Watch the full clip from the Fox News interview below:
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Here’s the pertinent quote:
Manafort: I think we’re doing very well in all those places. All the polls show us leading and we’re just starting to put our campaigns together there… June 7th is going to put us over but we’re not going to have to win overwhelmingly on June 7th… April is going to be a very bad month for Ted Cruz. He’ll probably finish third in delegates in April.
So far in April, delegates have been chosen in three states: North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Colorado. In North Dakota, 18 members of Cruz’s slate were elected, with Trump getting one delegate, and nine delegates remaining uncommitted. In Wisconsin, Cruz received 42 delegates to Trump’s six. In Colorado, Cruz received 34 delegates with an additional three being uncommitted RNC members.
There are 281 delegates left to be selected in April. The majority is in the Northeast, and I detailed how those delegates are likely to be awarded last week. Based on more recent polling, the math may have changed but even the new math wouldn’t put Cruz in third.
Wyoming
Wyoming has already apportioned 12 of its 26 non-RNC member delegates. There are 14 more to apportion at this weekend’s state convention. If the remaining 14 are apportioned at the same ratios, Cruz should garner eleven, Trump two and Kasich one. In addition, three RNC members are unbound by party rules.
The April delegate totals will be 121 by the end of this weekend. Cruz is projected to have 99 delegates (82 percent), Trump 9 delegates (7.4 percent), Kasich 1 delegate (less than one percent), leaving 12 uncommitted.
New York
The dynamics in New York have solidified for Trump since my last delegate projection in the Empire State. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump at 54.3 percent, Kasich 21.3 and Cruz 18 percent, with 6.4 percent undecided.
There are a number of reasons that the polling may be high for Trump in New York, the least of all being the deadline to register as a Republican to vote in the primary. New York has not held a competitive Republican Primary in a generation. Most of the polls self-screen respondents, who say they are likely to vote in the GOP primary. If they were not registered as Republicans last October, they will not be able to vote in the GOP primary. Also, Cruz has consistently outperformed his polling numbers, especially in closed primaries; a factor that could help him in the Empire State. With those factors in mind, it is entirely possible that Trump could be kept under 50 percent. For projection purposes, let’s say that he gets 50.1 percent of the vote and Kasich and Cruz each get half of the remaining 49.9 percent. That would mean Trump earns the 14 statewide delegates.
There are 27 congressional districts in New York, and each district gets 3 delegates. If a candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote he gets all three delegates. Otherwise, the winner gets two and the runner up gets one delegate.
There are 18 congressional districts in Long Island and Greater New York City. If Trump were to win an outright majority in 14 of them, he would garner 42 delegates. Cruz should win, although not with a majority, the two most heavily Jewish districts in the city, with Trump coming in second. That would be four delegates for Cruz and an additional two for Trump. The two Hudson Valley and Westchester districts should go to Trump at under 50 percent with Kasich in second, which means an additional four for Trump and two for Kasich. After looking at Greater New York City, the delegates would be 62 for Trump, 4 for Cruz, and 2 for Kasich.
That leaves nine other districts in the state. Trump could win three of these with a majority for an additional nine delegates. Trump should win four of the remaining six, without a majority, with Cruz and Kasich splitting second place. Kasich could win the remaining two, with Trump in second place. That means upstate delegate totals should be Trump nineteen, Kasich six, and Cruz two.
Overall, we can expect Trump to win 81 delegates, Kasich 8, and Cruz 6 in New York. That would put the total delegates awarded in April at 216. Cruz would still be in the lead after New York with 105 delegates as compared to Trump’s 90, Kasich’s seven and 12 remaining uncommitted.
“ There is almost no possibility, given the already strong lead Cruz enjoys in April, for Kasich to surpass him for second, and there is a very strong likelihood that Cruz will finish in first. ”
Northeast Tuesday
The Trump campaign is overstating their strength in the remaining northeast states. There are 172 delegates remaining to be awarded on Northeast Tuesday, April 26. My projections from last week should hold up in the remaining states. You can read that article here for background information for the table below.
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Connecticut
15
11
2
Delaware
16
0
0
Maryland
0
38
0
Pennsylvania
31
32
8
Rhode Island
8
7
4
Total Awarded
70
88
14
Not only will Cruz not finish in third in delegate count in April but there is a very good chance that he will end up finishing in first, even with Trump crushing it in New York. The final delegate count for April could very well be Cruz 193, Trump 160, and Kasich 21, with 12 uncommitted.
For a moment, however, assume that Trump wins all of Maryland, which is highly unlikely. There is no way that Kasich can surpass Cruz for third. Once again, the Trump campaign (this time, its delegate guru) overstates Trump’s case, without looking at all of the data.
There is almost no possibility, given the already strong lead Cruz enjoys in April, for Kasich to surpass him for second, and there is a very strong likelihood that Cruz will finish in first.
Don't like capitalism?
I thought each candidate had to get 20 percent popular vote in New York to begin getting delegates? Is that true?
He expects that people will engage their brains and think.
I thought I heard him say, somewhere, it was about $10. But I quit listening to him.
I read that National Review is giving away subscriptions.
Maryland, HA! Pennsylvania, HA HA!
Manafort - Trump’s desperation hire.
With Paul Manfort, a long standing political fixer who lobbied for some of the most brutal regimes on earth, allegedly sexually harassed at least one employee, and who has close ties to people who are part of the Russian Mob, the organization has devolved into the archetype of the “snake pit” model of organizational behavior.
The Trump organization is in full panic mode.
He should know there are Cruz supporters out there who don’t do that kind of thing.
Man, oh, man. Talk about grasping at straws. But I guess you must gather enough to build your straw-man arguments with.
It appears 2ndDivisionVet may have had a change of opinion from six years ago... you know back about a year after your preferred candidate quit the Democrat party.
If we can cut Donald some slack, maybe we can also cut long term conservatives some slack, too.
I’m sure by now somebody in the Trump camp has read the New York Primary rules to the Donald.
When is the cut off date on whining about Colorado?
I hope it’s soon. Getting old.
“When is the cut off date on whining about Colorado?”
My guess: when Team Cruz steals the next batch of delegates.
Good point about the October deadline to register as a Republican.
Not only two of Trump’s kids, but also someone on his campaign staff failed to do that little thing and cannot vote for him.
He can kiss the democrat and independent vote goodbye.
I think the polling for Trump is way high. He won’t do that well.
One of his surrogates can’t vote for him because ... (wait for it) .... he’s a Democrat!
I don’t know. It has worked in trumps favor. He’s finally getting good press. The last two days or so have finally been pro trump for the most part. A miracle quite frankly.
“One of his surrogates can’t vote for him because ... (wait for it) .... he’s a Democrat!”
It’s more accurate to call him his ‘lawyer’, not surrogate.
Nothing strange about a longtime lawyer having a different political affiliation.
Joke fail.
Trump has gotten good press for months.
And free advertisements every day.
Wow, isn’t that just like him, Distortin’ Ted.
I wonder if cRuz and Leven’s voices are pleasant sounding, to each other.
LOL.
I know a bunch of Trump supporters here who aren't registered. What a shame.
Perhaps Trump finishes under 50%.
Oh, so people that can’t infer what he really meant from what he really said are mentally disengaged? I guess there are going to be a lot people that don’t vote for him because they don’t know what he really says, but I guess it’s ok, Trump can do without them, right?
“Bingo. Do we know how many package subscriptions a shady Cruz PAC may have bought?”
I thought Trump guys were dummies, stop being Mr Smarty Pants.
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